Reference Date: 25-August-2026

Cereal production in 2026 estimated near average following favourable weather conditions

The 2026 winter cereal harvest was completed in late July with favourable production prospects. A delayed onset of seasonal rains until mid‑December 2025 postponed planting operations and constrained early crop development. However, abundant rainfall from January 2026 replenished soil moisture conditions and supported crop recovery. In May 2026, ahead of the harvest season, geospatial data indicated generally favourable vegetation conditions across most cropping areas. Domestic wheat production is estimated to have improved compared to the previous year. However, regional disparities were observed, particularly in conflict‑affected areas, where security constraints and limited access to agricultural land prevented some farmers from harvesting their crops. Localized adverse weather conditions also affected production in parts of northern Bekaa. Total cereal production is estimated at about 160 000 tonnes, near the five‑year average, reflecting a significant rebound from the drought-affected production of the previous year.

Cereal import requirements forecast to be above average in 2026/27

Cereal import requirements for the 2026/27 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 1.3 million tonnes, about 4 percent above the five‑year average. Despite the rebound in domestic cereal production, imports are expected to remain high, as local output covers only a limited share of national consumption needs, particularly for wheat. The country’s high dependence on cereal imports to meet domestic consumption needs leaves local markets vulnerable to fluctuations in international cereal prices and freight costs, particularly amid ongoing regional conflicts.

Food insecurity expected to persist in 2026 among vulnerable populations, driven by high food prices and limited humanitarian assistance

According to the latest available food security analysis by FEWS NET, vulnerable households in several areas of the country are expected to remain in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) through January 2027, including South, El‑Nabatieh, Beirut, Baalbek‑El Hermel, Bekaa, Akkar governorates as well as parts of North and Mount Lebanon. Ongoing insecurity, population displacement, loss of productive assets, disrupted agricultural livelihoods and limited income opportunities continue to constrain food access, particularly among vulnerable households, displaced people and refugees. Declining humanitarian assistance, driven by funding shortfalls and access constraints, is adding further pressure on food security conditions.

The annual food inflation rate remained elevated at 18 percent in June 2026. Despite generally stable prices in recent months, supported by exchange rate stability and adequate commercial imports, prices of several key food commodities remained substantially above their year‑earlier levels. In June 2026, bread and vegetable oil prices were 14 percent and 21 percent higher year‑on‑year, respectively. High food and living costs, coupled with low incomes and limited livelihood opportunities, continue to constrain food access, especially among the most vulnerable households.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .

Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Lebanon https://fews.net/middle-east-and-europe/lebanon