Reference Date: 18-September-2026

Paddy production forecast at slightly above‑average level in 2026/27

Harvesting of the 2026/27 main paddy crop, which accounts for about 80 percent of annual production, is expected to begin at the end of October. The 2026/27 secondary paddy crop, which accounts for about 20 percent of total annual production, will be planted from October onwards. The June to October monsoon season began on time in early June and precipitation amounts were average to above average until the end of August across the main rice-producing provinces. Localized crop losses were however reported following episodes of heavy rainfall and flooding in July and August, particularly in parts of Rakhine State, Sagaing and Ayeyarwady Region. More than about 20 235 hectares of farmland were reportedly inundated in Sagaing while about 9 070 hectares of the about 12 500 hectares planted with paddy acres were lost in only one township of the Ayeyarwady Region. Aggregate 2026/27 paddy production is forecast at 30 million tonnes, slightly above average. Farmers are anticipated to continue favouring cultivation of paddy over other crops, particularly during the secondary cropping cycle. At the same time, area growth and yield expectations are dampened by restricted access to fields in northern parts of the country due to the ongoing conflict, conflict-related marketing constraints and high agricultural input costs. Combined, these could cause production to fall below the 2025/26 good outcome.

Harvesting of the 2026/27 main season maize crop is underway and is expected to conclude in January 2027, with output forecast at a near-average level. The 2026/27 second season maize crop is expected to be planted from mid-September onwards. Aggregate maize production is preliminarily forecast at 2.1 million tonnes, close to the average.

Average cereal exports forecast in 2026/27 marketing year

Total cereal exports in the 2026/27 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 3.9 million tonnes, close to the average, including 1.3 million tonnes of maize. Exports of rice in calendar year 2026 are forecast at 2.6 million tonnes, close to the 2025 reduced level.

Prices of rice close to their elevated year-earlier levels in August 2026

Retail prices of Emata rice declined steadily between January 2025 and February 2026 from the record level reached in late 2024, as market availability increased following the commercialization of the 2024/25 and 2025/26 harvests. From March 2026 onwards, prices resumed an upward trend, driven mainly by seasonally tightening supplies and transport costs amid elevated fuel prices. As of August 2026, prices were close to their elevated levels of a year earlier.

Critical food insecurity conditions due to multiple shocks

According to the Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan published in December 2025, about 8.5 million people, representing about 15 percent of the total population, were projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity in 2026. The high level of food insecurity is due to multiple shocks, including the lingering effects of the powerful 7.7 magnitude earthquake that struck central parts of the country in March 2025, causing widespread devastation, loss of life, large-scale displacement and severe disruption of livelihoods. High levels of acute food insecurity are also driven by the protracted conflict, which began in early 2021 and intensified in late 2023, high domestic prices of agricultural inputs and of food and a significant reduction in humanitarian funding, particularly since early 2025. The most affected population groups include internally displaced persons (IDPs), returnees and stateless people, with the highest levels of food insecurity concentrated in Rakhine, northern Shan, Kayah, Chin and Kachin states. Magway, located in Myanmar’s central dry zone and a major producer of oilseeds, pulses, sesame and groundnut, has been particularly affected, with more than 100 000 people recently displaced by conflict. As of mid-August 2026, the number of IDPs was estimated at a record 4 million people , mainly concentrated in Sagaing Region and Rakhine State.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .