Reference Date: 25-August-2026

Erratic rainfall curbs 2026 cereal production

Harvesting of the 2026 maize crop concluded in June and production is estimated at about 70 000 tonnes, a below‑average level and about 6 percent lower year on year. The reduced output largely reflects the impact of irregular rainfall, notably periods of heavy rainfall in January as well as around the harvest period in March and April. The heavy rain caused waterlogging and contributed to curbing yields, offsetting an increase in the area planted.

The 2025 outbreak of foot‑and‑mouth disease (FMD), the first reported case since 2000, caused extensive disruption to the livestock sector. Movement controls were imposed and exports suspended, notably to the European Union, an important external market. In response, the government launched a nationwide vaccination campaign and, as of July 2026, over 80 percent (approximately 454 000 cattle) of the national cattle herd had been vaccinated. By late July, the government announced that there were no active FMD cases , pending formal recognition by the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) of FMD ‑ free status ; a WOAH technical team visited the country in July, and in addition to assessing the situation provided guidance on control measures that aim to facilitate access to international markets.

Planting of the 2027 maize crop is expected to begin in October, and the prevailing El Niño event poses a downside risk to production through an increased likelihood of drier‑than‑average conditions during the main 2026/27 cropping season. If the onset of seasonal rains is delayed, residual soil moisture from the relatively wet 2025/26 cropping season could partly cushion the initial impacts. Nevertheless, prolonged dry‑weather conditions would remain a significant risk to cereal production and the broader agriculture sector in 2027.

Maize import requirements expected to rise moderately in 2026/27

The country is a net importer of maize, even in years of ample harvests. Reflecting the reduced domestic harvest in 2026, maize import requirements for the 2026/27 marketing year (May/April) are estimated at a level above the previous five‑year average.

Import conditions remain generally favourable, despite the higher import needs, supported by abundant supplies and declining wholesale prices in neighbouring South Africa, the country's main source of grain. In July 2026, wholesale prices for white maize in South Africa, Eswatini’s primary food staple, were 33 percent lower year on year and the lowest level since September 2021.

Food inflation eases on lower cereal prices

According to the latest inflation estimates from the Central Statistics Office , food prices declined by 2.7 percent year on year in June 2026. The decrease was driven largely by lower bread and cereal prices, which account for the largest share in the food inflation basket, amid the broader decline in South African cereal prices.

Acute food insecurity expected to deteriorate in 2026/27

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis , about 286 000 people (23 percent of the analysed population) are projected to face acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between October 2026 and March 2027, an 11 percent increase from the number projected for the corresponding October–March period a year earlier.

The expected deterioration reflects a combination of factors. Reduced maize production, together with the effects of the FMD outbreak, is expected to constrain agricultural incomes and reduce the purchasing power of agricultural‑dependent households. At the same time, expectations of El Niño‑linked below‑average rainfall amounts and higher‑than‑normal temperatures during the 2026/27 cropping season is weighing on the 2027 cereal production outlook and could reduce demand for agricultural labour, further constraining incomes for households reliant on informal farm work. In addition, disruptions to and uncertainty in key international shipping routes (Black Sea Region and Strait of Hormuz) could pose some additional risks to agricultural production and broader food systems, including through potential impacts on input prices.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .