Reference Date: 27-August-2026

Abundant rainfall supports above‑average cereal production in 2026, marking a significant rebound from the drought‑affected harvest in 2025

Harvesting of the 2026 winter cereal crops started in late May and it continued exceptionally in this season, beyond the end of July. The onset of the rainy season was characterized by dry weather conditions that delayed planting operations in rainfed areas and constrained early crop development, particularly in the main producing northern governorates. However, abundant rainfall amounts from December 2025 onwards improved soil moisture conditions, supporting a recovery in crop development, with vegetation conditions performing persistently above average across most producing areas prior to harvest. Heavy rainfall and increased water flow along the Euphrates River between March and May caused localized flooding and damage to cereal crops, particularly in Raqqa, Deir-Az-Zor and Aleppo governorates. However, these localized losses had a limited impact on overall production. Wheat production in 2026 is forecast at 2.7 million tonnes, more than 50 percent above the five‑year average, marking a significant rebound from the drought‑affected harvest in 2025 and the highest level reached since 2020.

Cereal import requirements forecast at near‑average level in 2026/27

Cereal import requirements for the 2026/27 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at about 3 million tonnes, close to the five‑year average, with wheat accounting for the largest share at about 2.2 million tonnes. Wheat import requirements are expected to decline from the previous year, reflecting the substantial recovery in domestic production following the drought‑affected harvest in 2025, although they will likely remain slightly above the five‑year average. However, given the country's sizeable cereal import requirements, ongoing regional conflicts and elevated transport costs could increase cereal import costs.

Acute food insecurity remains a major concern in 2026

According to the latest FEWS NET report , acute food insecurity remains a major concern, particularly in northeastern and northwestern areas, where IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) outcomes persist. High food and transport costs, currency depreciation and limited livelihood opportunities combined with climate risks such as floods, continue to erode households’ purchasing power and constrain their access to food. Internally displaced persons (IDPs) remain particularly vulnerable, amid reductions in humanitarian assistance and limited income‑generating opportunities. In southern areas, high prices and localized insecurity continue to adversely affect livelihoods and access to food. The number of people in need of humanitarian assistance is projected to range between 6 and 7 million during the October 2026 to January 2027 period.

The Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB), a key indicator of the cost of living, was more than 30 percent higher year‑on‑year in June 2026. Although the public sector minimum wage was increased in May 2026, it remained well below the level required to meet the cost of the MEB, representing only 47 percent of the basket's total value and about 75 percent of its food component. In June, national average retail prices of wheat flour and rice were 34 and 32 percent higher year-on-year, respectively. In addition, higher diesel prices exerted upward inflationary pressure on transport and distribution costs.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .