Technical support to develop forecasting/predictive techniques to assist vulnerable farmers and planners at district and state level to make informed decisions on crop choices and plans for rainfed agriculture
| Project's full title | Technical support to develop forecasting/predictive techniques to assist vulnerable farmers and planners at district and state level to make informed decisions on crop choices and plans for rainfed agriculture |
|---|---|
| Country | India |
| Start date | 01/05/2021 |
| End date | 31/12/2022 |
| Status | Completed |
| Project Code | TCP/IND/3805 |
| Objective / Goal |
Strategic Objective: Better Life Objectives: Policy makers, planners and individual farmers use forecasting techniques to make informed decisions on crop choices in changing climate scenarios and market dynamics Description: Indian agriculture is predominantly rain-dependent and is deeply interconnected with climate and biological variables, which are the main drivers of agricultural production and dominant factors in the overall variability of food production. Rainfed agricultural system dominates 52 percent of the country's net sown area contributing nearly 40 percent of the total food production and supports two thirds of livestock population. Rainfed areas are extremely vulnerable to climatic variability and climate change implications due to their poor capacity to cope with extreme water and weather shocks. Rainfall has become more erratic, shorter and heavier within seasons. Further, ‘unseasonal’ events such as heavier rains, drier spells, unusual storms and temperature fluctuations have been increasing, and thereby adversely impacting agricultural yield, rural livelihoods, and food security. Small and marginal farmers constitute more than 86 percent of the total farmers in the country with less than 50 percent of the land under cultivation. And, their capacities to adapt are limited making them increasingly vulnerable. The government has developed crop insurance and price stabilization schemes to support the income resilience of the farmers; however, there are gaps in addressing weather and climate resilience. The agricultural sector is, exposed to a variety of risks, which occur with varying frequency. While it is not possible to allay risks and uncertainties in totality, building farmers’ capacity to assess the probability of occurrence of such a risk and negotiate them appropriately could minimize the negative outcomes. The natural risk in agriculture can be negotiated by appropriate weather forecasts, disseminating early warning for flood, drought, longer dry periods and cyclones and developing contingency crop plans, putting necessary infrastructure in place, choice and arrangement of appropriate climate resilient varieties, technologies etc. Whereas, good agricultural practices like diversified cropping systems, agro-ecological practices, aerobic rice cultivation, water saving technologies and water harvesting development, and integrated farming systems, including agroforestry can minimize the anthropogenic risk in agriculture. Likewise, an efficient marketing system backed by a robust agri-logistics, price & demand forecasting and market integration can not only mitigate risks but also build farmers abilities to take certain market risks. The aforementioned necessitates sharing of information and knowledge with farmers in advance and in real time. Addressing problems of smallholder farmers, particularly in rainfed areas calls for much better understanding of the rainfed farming system and its constraints. The variety of agro-ecological zones across the rainfed areas of the country need therefore a strong component of characterizing and monitoring of these diverse farming systems. This information is fundamental to understand the need and the nature of technological interventions required for sustainable resource use. In addition to the improved models for addressing the challenges, the management of risk in these highly vulnerable agro-ecologies could be done using a combination of financial and non-financial tools. Both these approaches would require creation of actionable knowledge products that are widely shared – in the pre-competitive space. This will encourage stakeholders from across the supply chain to build specific tools for different agro-climatic zones, cropping systems, etc. Technology is emerging as a powerful tool for forecast, early warnings, alerts, and the like. The TCP envisages developing forecasting/predictive techniques and tools using multiple data points and big data analytics to aid vulnerable farmers and planners to make informed decisions on crop choices, particularly in rainfed areas. The TCP will train local resource persons/rural extension workers in utilizing the tool for deployment with rainfed farmers. It is also proposed to develop a policy brief and recommendations at the end of the project period. Donor: FAO Expected Outputs:
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