How an innovative modelling initiative is strengthening agrifood systems governance in Indonesia

From the verdant fields of Java to the remote corners of Papua, Indonesia's journey towards sustainable agrifood systems is as diverse as its people. Against a backdrop of lush rice paddies, vibrant spice markets, and teeming fishing villages, communities are banding together to confront the twin challenges of hunger and malnutrition, spurred by a shared vision of a more resilient and equitable future across the world's largest archipelagic country.

As it grapples with the complexities of its diverse geography and burgeoning population, the country is forging ahead with innovative strategies to ensure food and nutrition security while safeguarding its natural resources for future generations.

The Government’s dedication to achieving these goals has become evident through its prioritization of agrifood systems transformation. Enshrined in the Medium-Term Development Plan 2020–2024, and reflected in the long-term development vision and planning, this national agenda underscores the imperative for healthy, equitable, sustainable, and resilient agrifood systems.

Together with FAO and a group of international research institutes, the Government has embraced a pioneering modelling and analytical approach that provides unique evidence to address simultaneous challenges faced across diverse territories, to make decisions based on comprehensive evidence and rigorous methodologies. New data and assessments support the country in translating its agrifood systems priorities into actionable policies adapted to local needs.

“The modelling work and analytical exercises help us see trade-offs and scrutinize more policy options to transform our food systems,” stated Jarot Indarto, Director of Food and Agriculture at Indonesia’s Ministry of National Development Planning. “We are seeking to integrate our country’s diversity of contexts into this work.” 

The approach combines the models MIRAGRODEP, GLOBIOM and CGPE. It has been developed by a team of researchers from the Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), and the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) under FAO’s Governance innovation for sustainable development of food systems project. Indonesia’s Bogor Agricultural University (IPB) has facilitated data collection and has supported the political economy analysis.

The team elaborated their analysis aligning results to three of Indonesia’s strategic priorities, one for each sustainability dimension: promoting healthy diets, improving the socio-economic sustainability of agrifood supply chains, and advancing agrifood production systems for environmental sustainability. They assessed Indonesian agrifood systems’ performance while mapping risks and synergies across possible policy interventions. The information package includes an examination of the interests, roles, and contributions of institutional and non-institutional stakeholders, allowing for the identification of alliances and coordination needed to ensure the political feasibility of Indonesia’s agrifood transformation plans.

“The objective of the modelling is not to tell policymakers which policy to choose, but to inform them about the synergies and potential tradeoffs resulting from different choices with evidence and data, so as to demonstrate the benefits of a more integrated policy approach rather than to use separate policies on various issues,” points out Sean Woolfrey, Leader for Sustainable Agriculture and Food Systems at IISD, one of the researchers who developed the modelling.

The study has modelled stylized scenarios representing different mixes of policy interventions on (i) undernourishment, (ii) agricultural intensification, (iii) land use and forest conservation and (iv) a carbon price, as well as several scenarios where such interventions are combined to show opportunities for more balanced results, and multiplied benefits.

Revealing insights

The modelling results presented in a consolidated narrative help decision-makers and stakeholders to: better understand gaps, problems and challenges, mitigate negative trade-offs and maximize synergies, and identify partnerships and alliances among stakeholders to accelerate and upscale impact. 

The findings, co-designed, discussed and validated by national actors, provide a detailed picture of progress made, and present options for further improvements in the way forward: 

• Steady progress: Indonesia's current trajectory indicates commendable progress across various fronts. Economic growth and increased incomes are poised to alleviate poverty and undernourishment. Furthermore, deforestation rates are projected to decline, albeit with lingering challenges in forest conservation and potential increased competition in land use across sectors.
• Accelerating progress: Targeted policy interventions offer a means to expedite achievements. Social safety nets, tailored to address vulnerable demographics, hold promise in enhancing access to nutritious foods. Concurrently, investments in agricultural research and infrastructure can catalyze productivity gains, thereby bolstering food security. 
• Navigating trade-offs and synergies: The pursuit of multifaceted goals also shows potential nuanced trade-offs and synergies across policy interventions. Scenarios show, for instance, that while social safety nets have a positive direct impact on alleviating undernourishment, they may spur cropland expansion, posing challenges for biodiversity conservation and other natural resources management. Conversely, interventions aimed at environmental preservation may impose marginal costs on food production, reducing socio-economic access to healthy diets.
• Integrated solutions: A holistic approach to policymaking is paramount, and choices must be made based on complex realities. Integrated packages across and balancing multiple development objectives - improving nutrition, production efficiency, waste and water use reduction, and conservation efforts, emerge as the most effective strategies to enhance transformation.  Evidence to carefully balance and target interventions is a game-changer. 
• Regional dynamics: Indonesia's diverse regional landscape underscores the need for tailored strategies. Policy effectiveness varies across regions, necessitating localized approaches. Policymakers must meticulously evaluate regional nuances and ensure equitable distribution of benefits. While evidence was also provided at the sub-national level informing the ongoing tailoring of interventions at the decentralized level, a fiscal policy has been piloted to unlock public resources and catalyze investments, particularly at the decentralized level.

Bridging perspectives

The convergence of stakeholder beliefs and modelling outcomes heralds a shared commitment to agrifood systems transformation. However, disparities in policy preferences underscore the complexities of implementation.

While stakeholders advocate for sustainable practices and targeted subsidies, bridging the gaps between different stakeholders’ views requires nuanced dialogue and collaborative problem-solving.

In addition, the quest for optimal policy solutions must contend with political realities. Experts involved in the project recommended hearing the feedback from various stakeholders about the policy options under consideration: “We must ensure that everyone has a common understanding and is able to contribute to commonly agreed priorities,” emphasized Anna Rappazzo, Project Officer at FAO’s Governance and Policy Support Unit, who managed the initiative.

Next steps

Following its active involvement in the 2021 United Nations Food Systems Summit, Indonesia has charted a Strategic National Pathway for Food Systems Transformation. A collaborative effort between the Indonesian Government and FAO, this pathway embodies a vision of progress built on dialogue and data-driven insights.

The insights from the modelling work are creating new governance opportunities for policymakers, who become better informed to identify optimal policy mixes and engage with the most appropriate actors.

The Government is focused on decentralizing the approach. It has committed to assisting the country’s very culturally and socially diverse subnational administrations in tailoring the agrifood systems transformation agenda to its local contexts. Local governments are encouraged to set their own priorities, with a view to making systems more sustainable, resilient, efficient and inclusive.

For that, central authorities in Jakarta have put in place a fiscal transfer system that enables funding for local efforts. “Since we are by default a decentralized country, it is important for us to facilitate local governments to develop their food systems based on their local foods, cultures and governance,” highlighted Dr Indarto.