FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief

The Cereal Supply and Demand Brief provides an up-to-date perspective of the world cereal market. The monthly brief is supplemented by a detailed assessment of cereal production as well as supply and demand conditions by country/region in Crop Prospects and Food Situation, published three times per year. More in-depth analyses of world markets for cereals, as well as other major food commodities, are published biannually in Food Outlook.

Monthly release dates for 2026: 6 February, 6 March, 3 April, 8 May, 5 June, 3 July, 4 September, 2 October, 6 November, 4 December.

Cereal production prospects remain positive, but rising input costs add uncertainty ahead of sowing

Release date: 03/04/2026

FAO’s latest forecast for global cereal production in 2025 is raised by 0.2 percent this month to 3 036 million tonnes. At this level, world production is 5.8 percent higher year on year, with upward revisions largely reflecting recently released official data for wheat production in Central Asia and maize production in India. As for rice, FAO’s global production outlook has changed only marginally since March, as a yield-based upgrade to Egypt’s production estimate is largely offset by an output downgrade for the United Republic of Tanzania, where official assessments indicate that weather setbacks caused a more pronounced contraction than previously envisaged. As a result, world rice production remains forecast to expand by 2.0 percent in 2025/26 to reach a record high of 563.3 million tonnes (milled basis). Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia remain forecast to drive this annual production growth, more than compensating for contractions namely in Madagascar, Pakistan, Thailand, the United Republic of Tanzania, and the United States of America.

World cereal utilization in 2025/26 is forecast at 2 945 million tonnes, marginally higher than last month and 2.4 percent above the 2024/25 level. A downward revision to wheat use is more than offset by increased utilization of coarse grains, particularly maize. In Argentina, strong export demand for wheat has prompted its substitution by maize and sorghum in feed rations while in Mexico upward revisions to production estimates have resulted in additional maize being channeled into animal feed. World rice utilization is anticipated to reach a fresh peak of 555.6 million tonnes in 2025/26, up 2.7 percent from 2024/25 and essentially unchanged from March expectations. Food use remains forecast to spearhead this expansion, although ample supplies are also seen underpinning growth in non-food uses of rice, including use of rice for ethanol production in India.

World cereal stocks by the close of the 2026 seasons are raised once more and are now seen at a record level of 951.5 million tonnes, 9.2 percent higher than the previous year. The latest forecast reflects upward revisions to wheat stocks in the European Union, owing to a slower pace of exports, and in the Islamic Republic of Iran, following a faster-than-expected pace of imports. Wheat stocks are also revised upward in Uzbekistan on improved harvest estimates and in India, where maize ending stocks have been raised after confirmation of a higher-than-anticipated output. The world cereal stocks-to-use ratio at the end of seasons in 2025/26 is forecast to stand at 32.2 percent, further underlining the overall comfortable supply situation. World rice stocks at the close of 2025/26 marketing seasons are forecast to expand by 4.2 percent to an all-time high of 219.3 million tonnes, owing to expected accumulations among exporting countries (particularly India, but also Brazil, Thailand, and Viet Nam) and among rice importing countries (namely China, but also Bangladesh, and Indonesia).

FAO’s forecast for world trade in cereals in 2025/26 is raised this month by 3.6 million tonnes to 505.3 million tonnes. Recent trade data point to substantial purchases of barley and wheat by the Islamic Republic of Iran earlier in the 2025/26 season. In the case of wheat, increased shipments from Argentina and Kazakhstan outweigh a downgrade to the export forecast for the European Union, where sales have slowed since the turn of the year, while purchases by Türkiye have also been at levels lower than previously expected. World trade in maize in 2025/26 is little changed this month at 192.9 million tonnes as major exporters Brazil and the United States of America each continue to sell at a record pace. FAO’s forecast of international rice trade in 2026 (January-December) now stands at 60.0 million tonnes, down 1.6 percent from the 2025 record high and fractionally below March expectations as slight downward revisions to expected shipments by Cambodia and Thailand were partly offset by improved export prospects for Egypt.

Global wheat production prospects for 2026 remain favourable, although Near East conflict escalation is raising input costs and planting uncertainty

With the bulk of the 2026 global wheat crop already in the ground and to be harvested in the coming months, FAO’s forecast has remained mostly stable this month. At 820 million tonnes, production is foreseen to decline by 1.7 percent in 2026 yet still exceed the five-year average. However, conflict escalation in the Near East - and the resulting pressures from higher energy and fertilizer prices on production costs and disruptions to supply chain routes - has introduced additional uncertainty into the outlook, particularly for 2026 wheat crops yet to be planted in southern hemisphere countries and for spring wheat crops in countries north of the equator. Tightening margins, reflecting higher input costs alongside flat or weaker crop prices, could also influence planting decisions for 2026 maize crops in northern hemisphere countries, as farmers consider shifting towards less fertilizer-intensive crops, although the extent of the effect remains uncertain. 

In the European Union, recently released official data confirm expectations of slightly smaller wheat production of about 137 million tonnes, reflecting a cutback in winter crop plantings due to weaker prices and an anticipated return to more average yields from the elevated levels of last year. However, broadly favourable weather conditions continue to support prospects for solid crop productivity. Similarly favourable crop conditions prevail in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, where wheat production is seen surpassing 13 million tonnes, higher year on year, reflecting larger sowings and an anticipated improvement in yields. The wheat production outlook remains unchanged in the Russian Federation, where lower plantings are expected to result in a smaller harvest amid generally conducive weather conditions. In Ukraine, notwithstanding a cold spell in February that raised concerns over potential winterkill damage to wheat crops, overall wheat production is forecast at 23 million tonnes, broadly stable year on year but still well below pre-war levels. In the United States of America, a price-driven reduction in plantings and an expected modest decline in yields from the previous year’s elevated levels — with a larger share of the wheat crop located in drought-affected areas compared to 2025 — are supporting expectations of a decline in production to about 51 million tonnes, albeit still above the five-year average. In Canada, latest official data indicate that wheat plantings, mostly consisting of spring crops, are expected to remain comparable to last year and, assuming a return to near-average yields, production is forecast to decline moderately to about 35 million tonnes. In India, wheat production prospects point to a likely record output of 120 million tonnes, supported by all-time high sowings, while favourable early weather conditions and sufficient irrigation water supplies are underpinning good yield prospects, alleviating earlier concerns about elevated temperatures in parts of the country. Production forecasts for Pakistan and China (mainland) are kept unchanged in March compared to the previous month, with outputs anticipated to marginally exceed the five-year averages. In Near East Asia, following improved rainfall during the winter period in the Islamic Republic of Iran, overall crop conditions are favourable despite some localized dryness; however, if the conflict persists it may pose risks to harvesting operations expected to begin in May. In Türkiye, ample winter rainfall increased soil moisture levels and supported early crop development, while snow cover in central and eastern areas provided protection against frost, underpinning favourable yield and production prospects. In North Africa, following two consecutive years of region-wide rainfall deficits, a return to wetter conditions is bolstering wheat yield prospects and production upturns are consequently expected in 2026. 

Summary Tables