FAO’s forecast of global paddy production in 2009 is 668 million tonnes, 3 percent less than in 2008, reflecting unfavourable climatic conditions in northern hemisphere Asian countries, which are about to harvest their main 2009 paddy crops. Despite the anticipated decline, production in 2009 would still be high, second only to the record hit in 2008.

Delayed progress of monsoon rains and erratic precipitation patterns are behind a worsening of the 2009 production outlook in Asia, now forecast to gather 601 million tonnes of paddy, 22 million tonnes or 4 percent, less than in 2008.

Despite less favourable growing conditions this season, paddy production in Africa is set to remain close to the outstanding 25.4 million tonnes gathered in 2008, reflecting an expansion drive from governments and renewed interest in the sector from both institutional and private investors. In Latin America and the Caribbean, prospects are excellent, as paddy output is forecast to rise by 4 percent to 27.5 million tonnes. In the other regions, paddy production is projected to expand in the EU-27 and the United States. Although above the dismal 2008 crop, production in Australia remains well below early 2000s’ levels.

Rice trade
Global rice trade in 2009 is forecast to rebound by 2 percent to 30.7 million tonnes. The recovery would be mostly on account of greater imports (Philippines, EU-27 and countries in the Near East). By contrast, deliveries to Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka and Turkey, but also to western African countries, are set to fall, often sharply.

Based on current expectations, FAO’s first forecast of rice trade in 2010 stands at 30.3 million tonnes, 1 percent less than foreseen in 2009. The near 400 000 tonne fall would arise from weaker import demand from major rice importers, mainly Brazil, Indonesia and the Philippines, amid favourable production prospects. On the export side, an anticipated tightening of supplies and less attractive world prices may result in reduced shipments (India, Pakistan, Viet Nam, Egypt and the United States). However, China, mainland, Thailand, Cambodia and Myanmar could increase their exports.

International rice prices remained generally steady in July and August but fell markedly across all market segments in September 2009, when the FAO All Rice Price Index (2002-2004=100) ended at 232 points, 20 points below June. Since the beginning of the year, the Index has averaged 256 points, 45 points below its January-September 2008 value – and the arrival of freshly supplies in coming months may cause them to slide further. However, actions by governments will remain of foremost importance. Last but not least, the continued fall in international wheat prices, which in September had lost 30 percent year-on-year, may exert further downward pressure on world rice prices.

The full text of the latest edition of the Rice Market Monitor is available on the Internet.

More information at:
http://www.fao.org/es/esc/en/15/70/highlight_71.html