Based on the rice crop calendar, Cyclone Nargis which just hit Myanmar may have affected the 2007 secondary paddy crops, which are normally harvested between April and June. However, without a proper assessment of crop damage, it is difficult to gauge how the final 2007 paddy production will be impacted.

FAO estimate of 2007 production for the country now stands at 30.02 million tonnes (18.9 million tonnes, milled rice equivalent), down 2 percent from 30.6 million tonnes (19.3 million tonnes, milled rice equivalent) in 2006. The cyclone may require the 2007 estimate to be downgraded somewhat once the extent of the damage is better known.

In addition, the impact of the cyclone on rice supplies already harvested might have been serious, given relatively poor storage facilities in the country. If post-harvest losses turn out being large, localized food shortages in the short term may result. Such losses could also impair the country's ability (and government decision) to export rice in 2008. FAO expected Myanmar to supply 600,000 tonnes of milled rice over calendar 2008, after the government, which keeps tight controls over rice trade, had authorized some exporters to ship that amount. This position could change, in the light of the current disaster. Moreover, the country may need in the short term some rice supplies from neighbouring countries, including Thailand and Viet Nam. In either cases (lower exports from, or larger imports to, Myanmar) the event would lead to a further tightening of the world rice market.

Based on production and trade figures provided by the government, FAO has calculated rather high per capita rice availability (apparent consumption), in the order of 234 kg, per person, per year. Such consumption levels are not impossible, especially for a poor country such as Myanmar. They show how critical rice is for food security in the country and how devastating it would be if the recent disaster results in severe rice shortages in the next six to seven months, before the 2008 main paddy crop is harvested around November.

The cyclone hit 5 states which are predominantly agricultural societies. Rural poor are the most hit.

The 5 states produce 65 percent of the countries rice, and have about 50 percent of all irrigated areas. There is risk that stored rice seeds kept by farmers - usually under poor storage facilities - might be affected by the cyclone.

Some rice crops under irrigation might be affected if not yet harvested.