Pacific Rim demand and supply situation, trends and prospects: implications for forest products trade in the Asia-Pacific region. (Asia-Pacific Forestry Sector Outlook Study - Working Paper Series) APFSOS/WP/02













Table of Contents


by

Thomas R. Waggener
Christine Lane
INTERNATIONAL FORESTRY SECTOR ANALYSIS (IFSA)
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON, USA

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Working Paper No: APFSOS/WP/02

Forestry Policy and Planning Division, Rome
Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok

Rome, February 1997

The Asia-Pacific Forestry Sector Outlook Study is being undertaken under the auspices of the Asia-Pacific Forestry Commission.

This report comes under Workplan Numbers D18 and D19.

INFORMATION NOTE ON ASIA-PACIFIC FORESTRY SECTOR OUTLOOK STUDY

At its sixteenth session held in Yangon, Myanmar, in January 1996, the Asia-Pacific Forestry Commission, which has membership open to all governments in the Asia-Pacific region, decided to carry out an outlook study for forestry with horizon year 2010. The study is being coordinated by FAO through its regional office in Bangkok and its Headquarters in Rome, but is being implemented in close partnership with governments, many of which have nominated national focal points.

The scope of the study is to look at the main external and sectoral developments in policies, programmes and institutions that will affect the forestry sector and to assess from this the likely direction of its evolution and to present its likely situation in 2010. The study involves assessment of current status but also of trends from the past and the main forces which are shaping those trends and then builds on this to explore future prospects.

Working papers have been contributed or commissioned on a wide range of topics. They fall under the following categories: country profiles, selected in-depth country or sub-regional studies and thematic studies. Working papers: are prepared by individual authors or groups of authors on their own professional responsibility; therefore, the opinions expressed in them do not necessarily reflect the views of their employers, the governments of the Asia-Pacific Forestry Commission or of the Food and Agriculture Organization. In preparing the substantive report to be presented at the next session of the Asia-Pacific Forestry Commission early in 1998, material from these working papers will be an important element but will be blended and interpreted alongside a lot of other material.

Working papers are being produced and issued as they arrive. Some effort at uniformity of presentation is being attempted but the contents are only minimally edited for style or clarity. FAO welcomes from readers any information which they feel would be useful to the study on the subject of any of the working papers or on any other subject that has importance for the Asia-Pacific forestry sector. Such material can be mailed to the contacts given below from whom further copies of these working papers, as well as more information on the Asia-Pacific Forestry Sector Study, can be obtained:

Rome:

Mr. Mafa Chipeta
Senior Forestry Officer
Policy and Planning Division Forestry Department
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Viale delle Terme di Caracalla Rome, 00100, ITALY
Tel: (39-6) 5225 3506
Fax: (39-6) 5225 5514
Email: <mafa.chipeta@fao.org>

Bangkok:

Mr. Patrick Durst
Regional Forestry Officer
FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Maliwan Mansion
Phra Atit Road
Bangkok 10200
THAILAND
Tel: (66-2) 281 7844
Fax: (66-2) 280 0445
Email: <Patrick.Durst@field.fao.org>

This electronic document has been scanned using optical character recognition (OCR) software and careful manual recorrection. Even if the quality of digitalisation is high, the FAO declines all responsibility for any discrepancies that may exist between the present document and its original printed version.


Table of Contents


Volume I: Main report - May 30, 1996

Preface

Introduction

Background
Study purpose and structure
The Asia Pacific Region

Over view of the Asia-Pacific Region

Population and socio-economic status
Land and forests
Deforestation

Forest output and production

Forest sector industry base

Roundwood production

Fuelwood and industrial roundwood

Fuelwood
Industrial roundwood

Export or produce? Using the available timber supply

Trade in roundwood
Industrial roundwood trade
Sawnwood production and trade
Wood-based panels
Wood-based pulp
Paper and paperboard

Asia Pacific trade account - A growing deficit

Markets and major trade flows

Prices for Asia Pacific forest products

Asian logs

Asian sawnwood

Asian plywood

Major issues and constraints facing Asia Pacific forestry

Government

Forest policies
Development strategies
Legislation
Tariff/trade barrier

Conservation of forest resources and land use

Reforestation
Wildlife and timber reserves

Forest stand management

Biodiversity
Sustainability
Deforestation/degradation of forests

Agroforestry

Harvest levels
Forest fire and forest protection
Land use and watershed management

Forest products and industry

Forest products
Non-wood forest products
Forest processing
Research and institutions
Large scale forest industry & investment
Small scale forest industry

Forest products marketing and trade

Timber certification
Product substitution
Internal market barriers
External market barriers
Demand for forest products

Social and economic trends and the environment

Environmental functions of forests
Rural energy development
Enhancement of research
Centrally planned systems for forestry
Market based systems for forestry

Projections and outlook towards 2010

FAO - Forestry assessment

World Bank - Tropical deforestation in Asia

ITTO - Economic Linkages

ITTO - Analysis of macroeconomic trends

ADB - Status of forestry

United States and Canada
New Zealand, Chile and Australia
Russia: East Siberia and the Far East

Determinants of supply

Forest land base
Uses of the forest
Forest resource conditions & productivity
Harvest modeling
Economics of management
Politics of management

Determinants of demand and consumption

Levels of income
Population
End market indicators
Availability and price of substitute goods
Tastes and preferences

Supply, demand and consumption

"Most likely" scenario towards 2010

A "reasonable" scenario

Role of equilibrium models

Adjustments to the scenario

Fuelwood in the equation of Asia Pacific forestry
Estimated elasticity of demand and supply
Conifer and non-conifer sub-sectors

Sustainable harvests and transitional effects

Findings and recommendations for further analysis

Comprehensive scope for regional sector analysis

Integrated databases for analysis

Policy analysis

Fuelwood

Land use and competing non-timber forest products

Marketing, trade and trade policy

Sustainability as an international yardstick

Substitution and econometric analysis

Competition and potentials of perimeter players

Disaggregated spatial equilibrium analysis

Bibliography

Supplemental sources

Volume II: Statistical appendix

Appendix 1. Countries of the Asia Pacific region - Coverage by major reviews

Appendix 2. Socio-economic data of the Asian Pacific region by sub-region and country

Appendix 3. Forest resources of the Asian Pacific region by sub-region and country 1990

Appendix 4. Status of forest land and changes 1980-90 by sub-region and country

Appendix 5. Tropical forest countries: Area and deforestation by forest formation by sub-region and country

Appendix 6. Tropical forests: State of logging 1990 by sub-region and country

Appendix 7. Total roundwood production by sub-region and country, 1980, 1985, 1990-94

Appendix 8. Roundwood production by type, by sub-region and country 1993

Appendix 9. Non-conifer industrial roundwood production by sub-region and country - 1980, 1985, 1990-94

Appendix 10. Conifer industrial roundwood production by sub-region and country - 1980, 1985, 1990-94

Appendix 11. Total roundwood import and export by sub-region and country by volume and value - 1980, 1985, 1990-94

Appendix 12. Industrial roundwood (conifer) import and export by sub-region and country by volume and value - 1991-94

Appendix 13. Industrial roundwood (non-conifer tropical) import and export by sub-region and country by volume and value - 1991-94

Appendix 14. Industrial roundwood (non-conifer other) import and export by sub-region and country by volume and value - 1991-94

Appendix 15. Non-conifer sawnwood production, import and export by volume & import and export by value by sub-region and country 1980, 1985, 1990-94

Appendix 16. Conifer sawnwood production, import and export by volume & import and export by value by sub-region and country 1980, 1985, 1990-94

Appendix 17. Wood-based panels production, import and export by volume & import and export by value by sub-region and country 1980, 1985, 1990-94

Appendix 18. Wood pulp production, import and export by volume & import and export by value by sub-region and country 1980, 1985, 1990-94

Appendix 19. Paper and paperboard production, import and export by volume & import and export by value by sub-region and country 1980, 1985, 1990-94

Appendix 20. Total forest products imports, exports and net trade by value, 1980, 1985, 1990-94

Appendix 21. Direction of trade, major forest products by major importer and exporter country, 1992 and 1993

Appendix 22. Trade flow of main tropical wood products by major import country by volume and value by country of origin 1993

Appendix 23. Trade of tropical timber by major products by import and export country by volume, 1994

Appendix 24. Major log species and sawnwood species exported by ITTO Asian producers 1992-93 (scientific name, vernacular name, volume and value)

Appendix 25. Asia Pacific region - Production and consumption 1993 and outlook 2010: Total roundwood and fuelwood

Appendix 26. Asia Pacific region - Production and consumption 1993 and outlook 2010: Industrial roundwood, sawnwood and wood panels

Appendix 27. Asia Pacific region - Production and consumption 1993 and outlook 2010: Wood pulp and paper & paperboard

Appendix 28. Projected forest resources consumption in the Asian Pacific region 2000 & 2010

Appendix 29. ITTO scenario: Substitution of fibre and products

Appendix 30. ADB forecasts to 2005: Roundwood consumption, wood use and the production and consumption of sawnwood, wood-based panels, paper & paperboard, and market pulp

Appendix 31. Implications of timber supply reductions on harvested areas in the US Pacific Northwest and Western Canada

Appendix 32. US forest products trade with Asia Pacific region 1984-1995

Appendix 33. Canadian domestic exports of forest products (quantity and value) by major commodity group and trade area and by province or region of lading/origin 1994