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Component 2 covers the assessment of current and future household vulnerability to food insecurity as a result of climate change. This is done through the development of an analytical econometrics model using best available national household datasets.

Local partner: Office of Economic and Statistical Studies of the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (OEE-MINAGRI) with guidance provided by Dr. Gustavo Anríquez (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile).

This study brings together advances in weather data collection and modeling, and developments in socioeconomic climate microsimulations providing a clearer perspective on the implications of climate change on the design of public policies that combat food insecurity.  It uses new downscaled predictions of climate in the years approaching 2050, derived from three Earth System Models calibrated with a new historical weather station dataset for Peru.

The impact of climate change on agricultural yields was estimated and found to be consistent with literature describing global simulations, with yields falling by up to 13% in some regions. It has been possible to show that these drops (and increases) in yields translate to much smaller changes in food consumption, and also surprisingly, to very minor impacts on vulnerability to food insecurity. In light of these findings, policies that could have a greater impact on reducing food insecurity were explored.