Demand for crab, in general, appears to be recovering in most markets, but supplies of some products are tight. Snow crab quotas for the 2023 season are the highest since 2016, totalling 160 000 tonnes. However, consumers demand may be muted, keeping prices low.

Supplies

The 2023 quotas for snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) in Canada, Russia and Norway have been risen, while the Alaska snow crab fishery has been closed for 2023. The combined global snow crab quotas for 2023 are the highest since 2012.

Canada's Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) has announced an 8.3 percent increase in the Southern Gulf of Lawrence quota, to 35 216 tonnes, and an 8.4 percent increase in the quota for Newfoundland and Labrador, to 54 727 tonnes. Combined with other smaller snow crab fisheries, Canada's total quota will amount to 103 000 tonnes.

In addition, the Russian Federation has set the quota for 2023 at 47 825 tonnes, and Norway has increased its snow crab quota by 15 percent to 7 790 tonnes. Thus, the total global snow crab quota for 2023 will be 160 000 tonnes.

However, the Canadian crab processors are not all happy about the quota increase. They have asked the Minister to forego the increases because of the abundance of frozen inventory left over from 2022 and plummeting prices in the wholesale market.

The Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW) finally opened the Dungeness crab fishery on 04 February after tests of sample crabs revealed that levels of domoic acid were low enough to be safe for human consumption. However, the recreational harvest of razor clams has been closed for the entire state due to excessive levels of biotoxins. Dungeness crab feeds on razor clams, and ODWF might have to close the Dungeness fishery again if the domoic acid levels increase. 

Dungeness crab landings in California have been up this season, but prices are low and the season closed on 15 April. At the end of March, the California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) announced that it was closing the fishery to minimize the entanglement risk for humpback whales as they return to feeding grounds in the region. In 2022, a number of entanglement cases were reported in March and April.

Supplies of blue swimming crab are low, only about 50 percent of what they were a year ago. But according to Urner Barry, prices for both blue swimming crab and red swimming crab declined in January 2023 compared to mid-December 2022.

Supplies from the major supplier, Indonesia, are tight, and as Ramadan started on 22 March, it will be much tighter as many workers reduce their fishing efforts. It is expected that production may fall by as much as 70–80 percent during this period. Consequently, prices are rising rapidly and will continue to do so.

Market

The snow crab market is expected to return to "normal" after the disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. However, snow crab prices in the United States of America fell from USD 19.00 per pound in January 2022 to USD 7.50 per pound in January 2023, and sales have been slow so far this year. Canada, the world's largest snow crab supplier, is expecting a regular season, but the market is unstable and there are ongoing disputes over prices.

With the ban on king and snow crab fishing in parts of Alaska, supplies to the US market are tight, but will be filled, at least partly, by Canadian crab. Canada is already the largest supplier of snow crab to the United States of America.

In addition to increased quotas, Canada was sitting on a large inventory of snow crab from 2022 harvest. Consequently, there was concern about the market situation just weeks before the 2023 season began in Newfoundland, Labrador, and the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

On the bright side, the US market appears to be recovering. In January 2023, the United States of America imported 1 313 tonnes of snow crab from Canada. This was almost seven times more than the 195 tonnes imported during January 2022. Import prices were down significantly, from USD 33.61 per kg in January 2022 to USD 18.32 per kg in January 2023.

International trade

Global imports of crab declined by 11.2 percent in 2022 compared to 2021, from 419 425 tonnes to 372 312 tonnes. The largest importer, the United States of America, saw a 23.8 percent decline, while China, the second largest importer, held its own and only registered a very small change (+0.7 percent).

The largest supplier to the United States of America was Canada, which accounted for over 47 percent of the total, followed by Indonesia with 15 percent of the total. Imports from the Russian Federation declined by almost 63 percent, not surprisingly.

In 2022, the United States of America imported a total of 45 996 tonnes of snow crab. Most of this came from Canada: 85 percent by volume and 87 percent by value. Imports from the Russian Federation dropped from 18 823 tonnes in 2021 to just 2 498 tonnes in 2022. The third largest supplier, Norway, also saw a drop in shipments to the US market, from 3 282 tonnes in 2021 to 1 474 tonnes in 2022.

Russian exports of crab declined by almost 14 percent in 2022. However, all the largest importers of Russian crab showed increasing imports: China up by 26 percent to 21 047 tonnes, the Republic of Korea up by 24 percent to 16 678 tonnes and Japan up by 24 percent to 13 002 tonnes.

The Western ban on trade with the Russian Federation as a result of the war in Ukraine has caused Russian exporters to look for new markets. They are now increasingly targeting Asia and the Near East for their crab exports.

Demand for blue swimming crab in the US market is strong, and the biggest supplier is Indonesia. However, as the fasting month Ramadan started in late March, production in Indonesia will drop by between 70 and 80 percent, so global supplies will be tighter, and prices are expected to rise again.

US imports of blue swimming crab in December 2022 showed a 48 percent decrease compared to December 2021 by volume and a 72 percent decrease by value. Total US imports of blue swimming crab went down by 53 percent by volume and 73 percent by value in December 2022 compared to the same month in 2021.

US imports of fresh blue crab from the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela in 2022 amounted to 3 675 tonnes worth USD 75.6 million. This represents an increase of 38 percent in volume and 21 percent in value compared to 2021.

Outlook

The outlook for snow crab is one of tight supplies, even though Canada's TAC is up by over 8 percent. The snow crab fishery in Alaska has been cancelled, and so total supplies will be lower.

Supplies of Dungeness crab will also be tight because of the early closure of the California fishery.

Market demand for crab seems to be picking up, but much will now depend on the dynamics of the global economy. An economic downturn could have an negative effect on demand. Some consumers seem to believe that the recession is already on.