Following a rocky 2020 the bass and bream sector appears to be on the road to recovery. Reduced production of bass is expected to restrict supply, while bream supply will increase slightly. Reduced hospitality consumption is having a pronounced impact on demand.

Production

Bass aquaculture is expected to remain low, putting it around 10 percent below 2019 levels. By contrast, bream farming is expected to increase in volume by 5 percent in 2021 due to higher Greek production coupled with returning Spanish capacity. The bass deficit is largely as a result of reduced production from Turkey, the main global producer, who has continued to reduce stockings; by 10 percent between 2018 and 2019, and by a further 10 percent in 2020. The effects of storm Gloria in Spain also played their part, as it wreaked havoc across Spain’s main bass producing region. Spain’s bream production fell by 5 000 tonnes, or 19 percent, between 2019 and 2020.

Trade and markets

Major markets are returning to varying degrees of normalcy, as reflected by an uptick in trade. The third quarter of 2020 marked a change in fortunes for bass and bream exports, with exports increasing on the second half by nearly 30 percent in value terms. Since then, global imports of bass and bream have been consistently strong, around 18 percent higher in value terms for the first quarter of 2021 when compared to the same period of 2020. Italy remains the largest market for bass and bream. 2020 saw a significant reduction in demand, but imports have since recovered and by the first quarter of 2021 were on par with previous years. Pre-pandemic more than half of bass and bream (by volume) came from Greece; this now stands at around 40 percent, largely as a result of an influx of lower priced Turkish exports. Spain saw imports of bass and bream of USD 64 million during the first quarter of 2021, an all-time record. Domestic production remains the largest source of bass, but storm Gloria has left its mark. The resulting gap between production and consumption has been largely filled by imports from Greece, which increased in volume by 8 000 tonnes from 2019 to 2020.

Prices

Wholesale prices for bass in Spain are stable, rising from EUR 5.21 per kg for medium sized fish in January 2021 to EUR 5.43 per kg in July. Bream has seen a more significant increase in the same time period, from EUR 3.97 per kg to EUR 4.87 per kg for fish weighing between 300-400 g. Average EU import prices for seabream mirror those seen in 2019, rising from EUR 3.50 per kg in January to EUR 4.00 per kg in June (Turkey FOB export to the European Union).

Outlook

While retail sales were essential for maintaining overall demand for bass and bream during 2020, limitations on tourism and dining will dictate much of what changes in the market during 2021. The hospitality sector still has a way to go before recovering to its former levels, and while restaurant sales are returning in key markets tourism still lags behind.