Demand for frozen tuna, both whole and semi-processed, from tuna canners in South East Asia and Europe weakened during January-September 2023 affected by high prices of raw material and falling demand for canned and other tuna based products from end users. Skipjack prices finally softened to USD 1 700 in October along with improved catches in the Pacific Ocean.  

Supply

Tuna landing patterns have changed in the major fishing zones since September 2023. Catches have improved in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean (WCPO) after the July-September FAD fishing closure. Reportedly, overall catches were also better during the FAD closure in comparison with the same period a year ago.

In the Eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) landings of skipjack as well as yellowfin tuna improved when the first 72-day IATTC ‘veda’ ended on 8 October 2023.

In comparison, catches remain poor in the Indian and Atlantic oceans, the main supply source to the European tuna canners.

Raw material import trends

Thai imports of frozen raw materials were at a 3-year low during the first half of 2023. In comparison with January-June 2022, imports of whole frozen tuna decreased by 14 percent at 314 245 tonnes and 20 percent for cooked loins at 27 345 tonnes during this period.

During January-June 2023, tuna processors in the Philippines experienced a 44 percent reduction in frozen tuna imports at 52 325 tonnes year-on-year. Imports in Ecuador were also low by 25 percent at 39 070 tonnes during this review period.

Imports in Spain fell by 20 percent for whole frozen tuna at 42 460 tonnes and by 8.8 percent for frozen cooked loins at 81 575 tonnes. Imports of cooked loins were also lower than the 2022 same period in Italy, France and Portugal.

All these trends resulted into reduced exports of canned and processed tuna worldwide during the first half of 2023.    

Fresh and frozen tuna market (non-canned)

The global market for high value non-canned tuna weakened during 2023 impacted by high inflation, increased cost of living and reduced disposable income of consumers.

Demand weakened in the large markets, Japan, the United States of America and the European Union, but stayed relatively stable in the emerging markets i.e. the Republic of Korea, China, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong SAR where post pandemic demand for sashimi grade tuna is on the rise in the hotel, restaurant and catering (HORECA) sector .

Main Markets

Japan

Consumer demand for sashimi tuna recovered in Japan only during April-May, when Spring festivals were celebrated throughout the country. Half-yearly imports of fresh tuna in 2023 improved moderately (+4.4 percent) associated with increased supplies of Mediterranean bluefin (1 139 tonnes) and southern bluefin (425 tonnes).

However, imports of high value frozen bluefin and bigeye tuna, generally in demand in the sashimi and sushi trade, declined during the first half of 2023. Imports of frozen bigeye during this period were 23 663 tonnes (-8.8 percent) followed by yellowfin (23 862 tonnes ; +9 percent) and skipjack (19 323 tonnes; +111 percent).

Year-on-year imports of ultra-frozen tuna fillet in Japan were also lower than the 2022 level during the January-June review period as local inventories were high and consumer demand remains seasonal.  

United States of America

Since the beginning of 2023, non-canned tuna trade in the United States of America has remained lacklustre. However, demand for higher value fresh tuna (sashimi grade) remained firm, but weakened significantly for non-sashimi grade frozen products. 

Cumulative imports of fresh tuna (bluefin, bigeye, and yellowfin) during January-June 2023 increased moderately (+3.5 percent) year-on-year. In comparison with other sub-groups, the rise in air-flown/fresh bluefin imports was higher at 13 percent, mainly supplied by Mexico and Spain.  

During the 2023 half-yearly review period, the share of frozen tuna fillet in total non-canned tuna imports weakened from 59 percent in 2019 to 57 percent in 2023. Imports declined from the top five suppliers, Indonesia, Viet Nam, Thailand, the Philippines, and Taiwan (Province of China) and also from other sources during the review period.

European Union:

The rise in demand for non-canned tuna was sporadic during 2023 summer holiday months of July- August in the European Union where Spain, Italy and France were the top markets. There was an import short fall of air-flown fresh tuna of  two percent during January-June 2023 at 7 075 tonnes (consisting of 4 277 tonnes of yellowfin, 2 296 tonnes of bluefin and 470 tonnes of bigeye tuna) in comparison with 7 216 tonnes imports in the  same period of 2022.

The decline in tuna fillet imports was  large  (-35 percent at 17 250 tonnes) during this period because of unsold stocks and fall in consumer disposable income for high value seafood. Among the leading markets, imports were steady in Italy at 3 305 tonnes (+3.8 percent) but declined in Spain (-50 percent at 3 910 tonnes), France (-35.6 at 3 085 tonnes), the Kingdom of the Netherlands (39 percent at 1 150 tonnes), and Germany (-30.7 percent at 770 tonnes).

Others in Europe

Outside the EU region, imports of frozen tuna fillets weakened in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland by 18 percent at 975 tonnes during January-June 2023 but increased in the Swiss market by 10 percent (255 tonnes) and also in Ukraine (+172 percent at 775 tonnes).      

Asia/Pacific:

The post-COVID-19 reopening of Japanese style restaurants in the Asia/Pacific regional markets supported a moderate rise in imports of high value tuna  in 2023.

China houses the largest number of sushi restaurants outside Japan, and  imported 700 tonnes (+72 percent) of high value fresh bluefin tuna (USD 30 per kg) during January-June 2023 mostly supplied by Japan. Imports of tuna fillet also increased from 73 tonnes in 2022 to 410 tonnes in China  during this period; the top suppliers were Indonesia, Republic of Korea and Viet Nam. Imports also increased during the third quarter of the year to secure adequate supplies for the week-long Autumn festival and the National Day celebrated from 1-10 October 2023.

During this period, consumer demand for sashimi grade tuna also recovered in the Republic of Korea, Thailand, Hong Kong SAR, Singapore, Taiwan (Province of China), Malaysia, and Indonesia .

Canned tuna trade 

Since the last quarter of 2022, consumer demand for prepared and canned tuna remained weak worldwide causing declines in international trade. Compared with the first quarter of 2023, the extent of declines were higher during April-June while raw material price remained high during this period.  

Exports 

Processed tuna exports weakened from Thailand, Ecuador, China, Philippines but increased from Spain, Indonesia during the first half of   2023.    

In Thailand the rate of decline in exports increased during January-June at 15 percent in comparison with a 10 percent shortfall in January-March 2023. Among the top ten markets, exports were lower  to the United States of America, Libya, Australia, United Arab Emirates, Canada, Israel and Egypt.

Exports from Ecuador, China and the Philippines also suffered because of  reduced demand for cooked loins from tuna packers in Europe and also in Thailand .

The growth in Spanish exports was a result of 23 percent and 41 percent increases in supply to Italy and Portugal. Indonesia offsets export declines  to the United States of America, Australia and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland through a 43.6 percent rise in sales to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) markets.  

Imports

In the absence of a real recovery in demand at end users, canned and processed tuna trade remained weak worldwide during the first three quarters in 2023.

North and South America

Imports of canned and processed tuna in the United States of America were  steady during January-March 2023 but started to weaken below last year’s levels from April 2023. Compared with 2022, imports during January-June 2023 were 5.7 percent lower with falling supplies from most sources.

In Canada, canned tuna imports declined by 7.22 percent at 15 230 tonnes during this period. The trend was mixed in South America; imports declined in Colombia, Argentina and Mexico but increased in Chile and Peru, upsetting overall exports from Ecuador.

Europe

In the large European Union market, demand for semi-processed raw materials (cooked loins) and ready-to-eat products weakened in 2023. During January-June 2023, imports of this product group (HS 160414) in the European Union were 1.3 percent lower year-on-year at 346 250 tonnes of which 26.7 percent was cooked frozen loins. Among the top five markets (Spain, Italy, France, Germany, and the Kingdom of the Netherlands), imports declined in Spain and Germany by 8.7 percent each. The leading three suppliers of processed and canned tuna in Europe were Spain, Ecuador and China which had a 52.8 percent market share in total imports in this market.

Compared with the 2022 same period, imports of cooked loin in the European Union fell by 7.3 percent (92 610 tonnes) which led to an overall weakening of processed tuna exports from China, Ecuador, the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, and Viet Nam during this period.

Canned tuna imports  also  weakened in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland by 9.6 percent at 43 320 tonnes. The Swiss market bought 15.2 percent less at 4 496 tonnes during this period.

In a positive move, imports  increased by 92 percent at 1 325 tonnes in the conflict affected Ukraine. There was also a 58 percent increase (3 730 tonnes) in exports of end products from Thailand to the Russian Federation during this period.

 MENA, Asia-Pacific and Others

Demand for canned tuna entered a weakening phase in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region during the second quarter of 2023 where Thailand and Indonesia were the main suppliers. During January-June 2023, combined exports from Thailand to 14 MENA markets declined by 27 percent at 72 500 tonnes because of reduced imports in Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Jordan and Lebanon. On the contrary exports from Indonesia increased by 44 percent at 15 000 tonnes in the MENA market compared with the same period in 2022

In the Far East and Pacific region imports increased in Japan and in New Zealand but declined in Australia during January-June 2023. Retail demand for canned tuna remained low in Malaysia, Taiwan (Province of China), and Hong Kong SAR during this period which caused declines in imports.  Demand, however, improved in the HORECA sector supported by improved business in the tourism sector.  

Prices

After staying high during the first nine months of 2023, the delivery price of frozen skipjack from the Western Pacific to Thailand weakened at USD 1 700 per tonne around mid-October. Skipjack and yellowfin prices at the Eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) have also adjusted to lower levels of USD 1 850 per tonne and USD 2 100 per tonne respectively for delivery to Manta, Ecuador. However, for the Spanish tuna canners, the comparative price of skipjack increased to EUR 1 800 per tonne due to poor catches in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.

Outlook

With the end of FAD fishing on 30 September 2023, tuna landings are likely to improve in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean in the coming months with some adjustments in export prices to southeast Asian canners. Catches in the Eastern Pacific will follow a similar pattern at least until the first week of November. The second ‘veda’  commenced on 9 November when nearly 60 percent of the Eastern Pacific Ocean fleet has opted not to fish.  

Prices of skipjack softened to USD 1 700 per tonne which will induce raw material imports by tuna canners in Southeast Asia. However, customers of end products in market places are unlikely to benefit from this adjustment until 2024 and demand for canned tuna may not improve in the global market.     

With the approaching cooler season consumption of sashimi tuna is expected to improve in Japan; the peak consumption period will be from 30 December  to 3 January when Shogatsu, the Japanese New Year is celebrated.

Consumer demand for sashimi tuna was strong in China, Hong Kong SAR, Taiwan (Province of China), and the Republic of Korea during the mid-autumn festivals in early October. This pattern is also expected to repeat during the celebration of Gregorian New Year in December/January and the Lunar New Year in February 2024.