KENYA THREAT IN MID-DECEMBER
Although the current upsurge continues in the Horn of Africa on a much-reduced scale, two hot spots currently remain.
First, aerial and ground control operations continue in northeast Somalia against an increasing number of very small, but numerous hopper bands that formed during November. As some infestations will be missed and cannot be treated, a limited number of new small immature swarms will form from the second week of December onwards. As vegetation dries out, the swarms will migrate south to southern Ethiopia and southern Somalia where they could start to appear in northeast Kenya in mid-December and spread west across the northern counties. The scale of any swarm migration from northeast Somalia is likely to be limited, depending on the success of current survey and control operations.
Second, a few small spring-bred mature swarms from northeast Somalia arrived in northeast Kenya during the first week of November and then moved back into southern Ethiopia where control operations are in progress. These swarms are likely to lay eggs that will hatch, and small hopper bands could form along the Ethiopia/Kenya border in December.
Elsewhere, hopper groups were treated on the southern coast of Eritrea that developed from a few swarms that arrived from northern Ethiopia and laid eggs in October. Remaining summer infestations were treated in northern Sudan. Small-scale breeding occurred on the southern coast of Yemen. Low numbers of adults began to appear in winter breeding areas along the Red Sea where upcoming breeding may be limited by poor rains.
The situation remains calm in other regions.