SUMMER RAINS STARTED IN SUMMER BREEDING AREAS
• Current situation: calm in all regions
• July: rains started in summer breeding areas
• August–September: above-normal rains likely in summer breeding areas for small-scale breeding
• October: potential locust increase in African Sahel, Yemen, Indo-Pakistan border
The Desert Locust situation continued to remain calm during July.
Only low numbers of solitarious adults and hoper groups were reported from different sites in the summer breeding areas in the interior of Sudan, and few isolated immature solitarious adults were reported in the summer breeding areas of Marib Governorate in Yemen.
July was characterized by the heavy rains in the Sahel region (Mali, Niger and Mauritania), Oman, Yemen and India (Gujarat, Bikaner and Nagaur). Moderate rainfalls were recorded in the North African countries (southern Algeria, Libya and Morocco). Moderate to high rains fell in Eritrea, Ethiopia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Somalia (Somaliland), and Sudan, while low to moderate rains fell in Djibouti and Egypt.
The rains fell during July in the breeding areas have contributed to the creation of favourable ecological conditions (vegetation and soil moisture) for locust breeding, where vegetation was found greening/green and soil was observed to be wet or moist in breeding areas in several countries.
As the predictable weather models indicated above-normal rains are likely in summer breeding areas during August and September, small-scale breeding will occur in the northern Sahel from Mauritania to western Eritrea, and in breeding areas with sufficient rainfall, particularly in Sudan and Yemen, and along both sides of the Indo-Pakistan border. Limited breeding may also occur in northeast Ethiopia and Somalia if good rains fall during the forecast period.
These breeding activities will cause locust numbers to increase slightly by the end of the forecast period
Vigilance and regular surveys should be maintained in the summer breeding areas.