Key points:

• Overview: The Desert Locust populations increased in Mauritania, where groups formed.
• Current situation: Groups of adults and hoppers formed in Mauritania. Solitarious adults were present in the north of the country, in Chad and Egypt. No locusts were reported elsewhere.
• Control operations: Ground control operations treated 80 ha in October.
• Forecast: Breeding will continue in Mauritania, where more hopper groups, bands and adult groups will form. Breeding will probably occur in northern Mali, Western Sahara and southern Algeria, where hopper groups and bands may form. Outbreaks could develop in Mauritania, and may develop in northern Mali and Niger, Western Sahara and southern Algeria. Small-scale winter breeding may begin on the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden coastal plains, but no significant developments are expected. 

Overview: 

Extremely strong El Niño conditions and a more positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) favour wetter conditions in eastern Africa, although the spring signal in Northwest Africa requires further confirmation. Dry conditions are expected across most Regions until early November, except for some rainfall in northwestern Africa, southern Algeria, Libya and along the Gulf of Aden and parts of the Red Sea coasts. Above-normal rainfall is expected from mid-November along parts of the Red Sea coasts and in the Horn of Africa. Winter rainfall is expected along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden coasts, becoming wetter in February, while the northern Red Sea is expected to be drier-than-normal in November–December. Hence, small-scale winter breeding may start along the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden coasts. Spring may be wetter than normal in Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, the Horn of Africa, southern Arabia, Iran and Pakistan, where spring breeding could be favoured.

Key points:

• Overview: The Desert Locust situation appeared calm across the three desert locust breeding Regions
• Current situation: Solitarious adult populations were present in Mauritania and Chad and isolated adults were seen in Egypt. No locusts were reported elsewhere.
• Control operations: No control operations were carried out in September.
• Forecast: Summer breeding could result in increasing locust populations in Mauritania, southern Algeria, northern Mali and Niger, and Chad, where hopper and adult groups may form. Small-scale breeding may occur in the summer areas of Sudan, the western lowlands of Eritrea, the interior areas of Yemen, and along the Indo-Pakistan border; however, no significant developments are expected. Small-scale winter breeding may begin on the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden coastal plains with the onset of winter rains, but no significant developments are expected.

Key points:

• Overview: The Desert Locust grouping populations declined in the Western Region.
• Current situation: A few adult groups were seen in Algeria, and also in Libya, where transiens hoppers and isolated adults were observed. Increasing solitarious adult populations in Mauritania, where isolated hoppers were found. More solitarious adults were seen in northern Niger and Chad. An unconfirmed report of adult groups in the interior of Yemen. No locusts were reported elsewhere. 
• Control operations: Declined in August to 100 ha treated, compared to 2 565 ha in July.
• Forecast: Increasing populations may occur in the summer breeding areas of the Western Region. Hopper and adult groups may form by the end of the forecast period. Small-scale summer breeding may occur in Sudan, western Eritrea, the interior of Yemen and along the Indo-Pakistan border; however, no significant developments are expected. 
  

Overview:

El Niño forcing continues to dominate the seasonal precipitation forecasts, and the outlook is nearly unchanged from last month, with minor changes in the predicted precipitation anomalies in a few regions. First, the dry signal has intensified over western India and southeastern Pakistan in August and September, reflecting both the stronger El Niño signal and a slightly less positive Indian Ocean Dipole phase. Wet conditions are still expected to develop across the Horn of Africa in September, extending to northern and eastern Africa and the Middle East in October, with stronger August–October dryness in India and Pakistan, while wetter conditions are expected in western Africa. Another minor shift is a stronger wet signal across the northern Sahel from September through November, with the notable wet anomaly likely indicating a delayed end to the rainy season. Summer breeding will occur in Mauritania and, at a smaller scale, in other Sahelian areas. Breeding should continue in the Western Region during August and September, increasing the risk of outbreaks from September onwards.

Key points:

• Overview: The Desert Locust outbreak continued in Morocco with widespread groups of adults.

• Current situation: Several immature adult groups formed over widespread areas in Morocco. In Algeria, a few immature adult groups were found, together with isolated and scattered hoppers and adults. In Mauritania, isolated and scattered adults were observed, while groups were reported by locals early in the month. Isolated adults were seen in Iran. No locusts were reported elsewhere. 

• Control operations: Doubled in June (88 501 ha treated) compared to May (41 946 ha).

• Forecast: Adult groups may form small swarms in Morocco, where maturation may progress, and some mature groups may migrate towards the Oriental region and western Algeria, where breeding could continue in July. However, most groups may move southwards into Mauritania or other Sahelian countries, where summer breeding is expected to begin. 

Overview:

The dynamical models indicate that El Niño conditions are persisting, with a likelihood of becoming one of the strongest on record. Drier‑than‑normal conditions are expected in East Africa, the Red Sea area, and the Arabian Peninsula during July and August, while above‑normal rainfall is forecast in northern Africa. From September onwards, wetter conditions are expected to develop in association with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, expanding to widespread above‑normal rainfall across northern and eastern Africa and the Middle East by October. Drier‑than‑normal conditions are expected to persist in India until October. Gregarious breeding will conclude in Morocco and Algeria. Summer breeding will begin in Mauritania and, at a smaller scale, in other Sahelian areas in July. Breeding should continue in the Western Region during August and September, increasing the risk of outbreaks from September onwards.

Key points:

• Overview: The Desert locust outbreak continued in #Morocco with widespread groups of hoppers and adults.
• Current situation: Several hopper groups and a few bands formed over widespread areas in Morocco, where numerous immature adult groups also developed. In #Algeria, a few immature adult groups were present, together with scattered hoppers and hopper groups. No locusts were reported elsewhere.
  Control operations: Increased in May (41 792 ha treated) compared to April (39 025 ha).
• Forecast: Fledging will continue in Morocco, leading to an increase in immature adult groups and small swarms. These will eventually mature and lay in suitable breeding areas, while most of them are expected to migrate to Algeria or Mauritania during June and July.
  

Overview:

The models indicate that the transition into El Niño conditions is progressing as expected, with this event likely to become one of the strongest on record. These conditions, together with a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole, are expected to result in drier‑than‑normal conditions across the Horn of Africa, the southern Arabian Peninsula, Pakistan and India during the three coming months. Below‑normal rainfall is also forecast across the northern Sahel from Senegal to the Red Sea, while above‑normal rainfall is expected in northwestern Africa. From September onwards, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to favour above‑normal rainfall in East Africa during the autumn. Gregarious spring breeding will continue in Morocco and may extend into Algeria. Summer breeding may occur in atypical areas in the Western Region, increasing the risk of outbreaks from September onwards.

Key points:

• Overview: The Desert Locust outbreak continued in Morocco with further breeding.
• Current situation: Hopper groups and small bands appeared at many sites across Morocco, while breeding mature adult groups declined during the second half of the month; a few adult groups were observed breeding in Algeria. Only isolated locusts were detected in the Canary Islands. No locusts were reported elsewhere.
• Control operations: Increased in April (39 025 ha treated) compared to March (25 137 ha).
• Forecast: Hopper groups may continue developing in Morocco and appear in Algeria. New adult groups may appear and move northwards for further spring breeding, and southwards into Mauritania.