Overview: 

Contrary to previous forecasts, seasonal models now indicate a trend toward drier conditions from northwestern Africa to the Middle East in January and February. However, subseasonal models predict rain events over the next four weeks across the three regions, and wet conditions could return in March and April in spring breeding areas. Depending on the development of El Niño conditions during spring, these wet conditions may persist, although confidence remains low at this stage. In the Western Region, as temperatures rise in January, a third generation of breeding could expand the ongoing outbreak. Wetter-than-average conditions may continue into spring breeding in northwestern Africa. In the Central and Eastern Regions, above-normal rainfall in March and April could support small-scale spring breeding in Egypt, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Somalia, Oman, Iran, and Pakistan.

Key points:

• Overview: The serious outbreak in Mauritania and Western Sahara continued in December.
• Current situation: Immature adult groups and swarms as well as hopper groups were found from southwestern Mauritania to southern Morocco. Adults were also reported in Algeria, Senegal, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, and Yemen.
• Control and surveys:  Surveys and control operations need to be further intensified from southwestern Mauritania to southern Morocco and surveys are also required in Algeria, Senegal, Mali and Niger.
• Forecasts: A third generation of breeding is expected from southwestern Mauritania to southern Morocco, likely resulting in new bands in late January. Small-scale breeding may also start in January along the Red Sea.

Key points:

• Overview: The Desert Locust outbreak remained serious in Mauritania and Western Sahara.
• Current situation: Numerous hopper groups and bands were present in Western Sahara and Mauritania where immature adult groups and small swarms appeared. Adult groups spread from northern Senegal to near Tiznit in Morocco. Some locusts were also found in Algeria, Chad, Niger, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Somalia and Yemen. 
• Control operations: Increased in November (30 860 ha treated) compared to October (10 180 ha).
• Forecast: Breeding will restart in Mauritania and adult groups emerge in Western Sahara. Small swarms may migrate northward from Mauritania to Morocco. Groups may appear in Mali, Niger, Algeria and Sudan. 

Key points:

• Overview: The outbreak in Mauritania and Western Sahara persisted in November.
• Current situation: Hopper groups and bands as well as adult groups were found from southwestern Mauritania to southern Morocco. Adult groups were also found in Algeria and adults in Niger, Chad, Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
• Control and surveys:  Surveys and control operations must continue in Algeria, and from southwestern Mauritania to southern Morocco.
• Forecasts: The northward migration is expected to continue and a third-generation of breeding may start in December from southwestern Mauritania to southern Morocco, generating new bands in January. Small-scale breeding may start in December along the Red Sea.

Overview:

Dry conditions are expected across all regions in November. In the Western Region, above-normal rainfall is likely in December in Mauritania, Western Sahara, Morocco, and Algeria, which may favour breeding and expand the ongoing outbreak. Wetter-than-average conditions could continue into spring in Algeria, Libya, and northern Sahel areas, supporting locust breeding. In the Central Region, as negative IOD conditions weaken, rains may start around the Red Sea in December in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Sudan. Above-normal rainfall may persist through April, supporting breeding along Red Sea coasts in winter and in interior areas during spring. In the Eastern Region, dry conditions prevail until December. From January to April, near- to above-normal rainfall may allow small-scale spring breeding in Iran and Pakistan.

Key points:

• Overview: The Desert Locust outbreak intensified in Mauritania and spread into Western Sahara.
• Current situation: Breeding adult groups, hopper groups and bands increased in Mauritania and breeding groups spread into Western Sahara. Locusts were also found in Algeria, Chad, Sudan and Yemen and a few in Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
• Control operations: Increased in October (9 890 ha treated) compared to September (4 543 ha).
• Forecast: Breeding will continue in Mauritania and Western Sahara with new adult groups and small swarms. Groups may appear in Mali, Niger, Chad, Morocco, Algeria and Sudan.  

Key points:

• Overview: The localized outbreak in Mauritania has spread throughout western Mauritania and into Western Sahara.
• Current situation: Groups of adults and scattered adults are found breeding over 800 km from southwestern Mauritania to Oum Dreyga in Western Sahara. Hopper groups and bands of the second generation appeared in Mauritania. Adult groups were also found in Algeria and adults in several sites in Chad. 
• Control and surveys:  Surveys are essential in all countries. Control operations need to be intensified in Mauritania and will likely be required in Algeria, Mali, Morocco, and Niger.
• Forecasts: The second-generation breeding will continue in Mauritania and Western Sahara, generating bands and later small swarms that will migrate northward. Adult groups may appear in other Sahelian countries as well as Algeria, and later Morocco.

Overview:

Dry conditions are expected across all regions through November, with localized rainfall possibly occurring in Mauritania, Western Sahara, Algeria, Oman, Yemen, and along the Indo-Pakistan border. December may bring wetter-than-average conditions to the Western and Central Regions, especially in Mauritania, Western Sahara, and along the Red Sea coasts, followed by near-normal conditions in January and February. Hence, locust breeding is expected to potentially increase in December, particularly in Mauritania and the Red Sea coasts. Spring could be wetter than normal in Algeria, Libya, Sudan, Egypt, Iran, and Pakistan, where spring breeding could be favoured. The negative Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to persist into November, causing dryness, while La Niña may bring wetter conditions to northern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula in winter and spring—though this trend is weak and needs to be confirmed.

Key points

• Overview: A desert locust outbreak continued to develop in Mauritania.
• Current situation: Hopper and adult groups increased in Mauritania. Adults and hoppers in Chad, Niger, Senegal and adults in Sudan. No locusts observed along the India-Pakistan border.
• Control operations: Increased in September (4 379 ha) compared to August (601 ha).
• Forecast: Summer breeding will continue in Mauritania, and conclude in Mali, Niger, Chad, and Sudan. Groups will continue to appear in Mauritania and maybe in Mali, Niger, Chad, southern Algeria and Sudan. No significant development expected along the India-Pakistan border.  

Overview:

Above-normal rainfall is expected in late September across the northern Sahel, Sudan, the southern Arabian Peninsula, and along the Indo-Pakistan border, and may persist into early October in West Africa and the Indo-Pakistan border area. A drying trend is anticipated across most regions in October and November due to a negative Indian Ocean Dipole. In December, rainfall may return to localized areas in all three regions, particularly along the Red Sea coasts of Egypt, Sudan, and Saudi Arabia, and could persist through February. Above-normal rainfall is also forecast for spring breeding areas in the Central and Eastern Regions. These rainfall patterns will support locust breeding in the northern Sahel and Sudan through September and early October. Breeding should decrease in November but may intensify again from December to March, especially along the Red Sea coasts.