Key points:

• Overview: The serious outbreak in Mauritania and Western Sahara in Mauritania and Western Sahara split into two distinct areas in January.
• Current situation: At the beginning of January, winds pushed groups and small swarms away from the Mauritanian coast, leading to the formation of two hotspots. In the south, between southern Mauritania and northern Senegal, several small immature swarms were observed. In the north, from northern Mauritania to southern Morocco, late‑instar hopper groups coexisted with immature, maturing, and locally mature adult groups. Adults were also reported in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, and Yemen.
• Control and surveys:  Survey and control operations must remain intensive from northern Senegal to southern Morocco, with additional surveys needed in Algeria. Monitoring should continue in the other countries.
• Forecasts: Breeding may resume in Mauritania and extend into Senegal. Mature adult groups could also breed as far north as southern Morocco, leading to new hopper bands in February. Small‑scale breeding may also occur in the Central Region.

Overview:

The establishment of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole circulation over the next two months, followed by the onset of El Niño in the Pacific in April, is becoming increasingly likely. Accordingly, seasonal models once again indicate a tendency toward wet conditions from Northwest Africa to the Middle East in February and continuing through May. Subseasonal models also forecast several rainy episodes over the next three weeks across various spring breeding areas. In the western region, a third generation of breeding could still occur north of the ongoing outbreak. The wet conditions expected in February could favour significant spring breeding in Morocco and Algeria, and possibly in Libya and Tunisia. In the central and eastern regions, above‑normal rainfall from February to June could support small‑scale spring breeding in Egypt, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Somalia, Oman, Iran, and Pakistan.

Key points:

• Overview: The Desert Locust outbreak remained serious in Mauritania and Western Sahara.
• Current situation: Numerous adult groups and small swarms were present in Mauritania, while hopper groups and bands were fledging into adult groups and small swarms in Western Sahara. Adult groups spread from northern Senegal to near Tan-Tan in Morocco. Some locusts were also found in Algeria, Niger, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Yemen.
• Control operations: Increased in December (81 654 ha treated) compared to November (33 273 ha).
• Forecast: Breeding may resume in Mauritania and Western Sahara. Small swarms may migrate northward from Mauritania to Morocco. Some may reach Algeria and Senegal. Groups may appear in Sudan.

Overview: 

Contrary to previous forecasts, seasonal models now indicate a trend toward drier conditions from northwestern Africa to the Middle East in January and February. However, subseasonal models predict rain events over the next four weeks across the three regions, and wet conditions could return in March and April in spring breeding areas. Depending on the development of El Niño conditions during spring, these wet conditions may persist, although confidence remains low at this stage. In the Western Region, as temperatures rise in January, a third generation of breeding could expand the ongoing outbreak. Wetter-than-average conditions may continue into spring breeding in northwestern Africa. In the Central and Eastern Regions, above-normal rainfall in March and April could support small-scale spring breeding in Egypt, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Somalia, Oman, Iran, and Pakistan.

Key points:

• Overview: The serious outbreak in Mauritania and Western Sahara continued in December.
• Current situation: Immature adult groups and swarms as well as hopper groups were found from southwestern Mauritania to southern Morocco. Adults were also reported in Algeria, Senegal, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, and Yemen.
• Control and surveys:  Surveys and control operations need to be further intensified from southwestern Mauritania to southern Morocco and surveys are also required in Algeria, Senegal, Mali and Niger.
• Forecasts: A third generation of breeding is expected from southwestern Mauritania to southern Morocco, likely resulting in new bands in late January. Small-scale breeding may also start in January along the Red Sea.

Key points:

• Overview: The Desert Locust outbreak remained serious in Mauritania and Western Sahara.
• Current situation: Numerous hopper groups and bands were present in Western Sahara and Mauritania where immature adult groups and small swarms appeared. Adult groups spread from northern Senegal to near Tiznit in Morocco. Some locusts were also found in Algeria, Chad, Niger, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Somalia and Yemen. 
• Control operations: Increased in November (30 860 ha treated) compared to October (10 180 ha).
• Forecast: Breeding will restart in Mauritania and adult groups emerge in Western Sahara. Small swarms may migrate northward from Mauritania to Morocco. Groups may appear in Mali, Niger, Algeria and Sudan. 

Key points:

• Overview: The outbreak in Mauritania and Western Sahara persisted in November.
• Current situation: Hopper groups and bands as well as adult groups were found from southwestern Mauritania to southern Morocco. Adult groups were also found in Algeria and adults in Niger, Chad, Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
• Control and surveys:  Surveys and control operations must continue in Algeria, and from southwestern Mauritania to southern Morocco.
• Forecasts: The northward migration is expected to continue and a third-generation of breeding may start in December from southwestern Mauritania to southern Morocco, generating new bands in January. Small-scale breeding may start in December along the Red Sea.

Overview:

Dry conditions are expected across all regions in November. In the Western Region, above-normal rainfall is likely in December in Mauritania, Western Sahara, Morocco, and Algeria, which may favour breeding and expand the ongoing outbreak. Wetter-than-average conditions could continue into spring in Algeria, Libya, and northern Sahel areas, supporting locust breeding. In the Central Region, as negative IOD conditions weaken, rains may start around the Red Sea in December in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Sudan. Above-normal rainfall may persist through April, supporting breeding along Red Sea coasts in winter and in interior areas during spring. In the Eastern Region, dry conditions prevail until December. From January to April, near- to above-normal rainfall may allow small-scale spring breeding in Iran and Pakistan.

Key points:

• Overview: The Desert Locust outbreak intensified in Mauritania and spread into Western Sahara.
• Current situation: Breeding adult groups, hopper groups and bands increased in Mauritania and breeding groups spread into Western Sahara. Locusts were also found in Algeria, Chad, Sudan and Yemen and a few in Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
• Control operations: Increased in October (9 890 ha treated) compared to September (4 543 ha).
• Forecast: Breeding will continue in Mauritania and Western Sahara with new adult groups and small swarms. Groups may appear in Mali, Niger, Chad, Morocco, Algeria and Sudan.  

Key points:

• Overview: The localized outbreak in Mauritania has spread throughout western Mauritania and into Western Sahara.
• Current situation: Groups of adults and scattered adults are found breeding over 800 km from southwestern Mauritania to Oum Dreyga in Western Sahara. Hopper groups and bands of the second generation appeared in Mauritania. Adult groups were also found in Algeria and adults in several sites in Chad. 
• Control and surveys:  Surveys are essential in all countries. Control operations need to be intensified in Mauritania and will likely be required in Algeria, Mali, Morocco, and Niger.
• Forecasts: The second-generation breeding will continue in Mauritania and Western Sahara, generating bands and later small swarms that will migrate northward. Adult groups may appear in other Sahelian countries as well as Algeria, and later Morocco.