Overview:

Dry conditions are expected across all regions through November, with localized rainfall possibly occurring in Mauritania, Western Sahara, Algeria, Oman, Yemen, and along the Indo-Pakistan border. December may bring wetter-than-average conditions to the Western and Central Regions, especially in Mauritania, Western Sahara, and along the Red Sea coasts, followed by near-normal conditions in January and February. Hence, locust breeding is expected to potentially increase in December, particularly in Mauritania and the Red Sea coasts. Spring could be wetter than normal in Algeria, Libya, Sudan, Egypt, Iran, and Pakistan, where spring breeding could be favoured. The negative Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to persist into November, causing dryness, while La Niña may bring wetter conditions to northern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula in winter and spring—though this trend is weak and needs to be confirmed.

Key points

• Overview: A desert locust outbreak continued to develop in Mauritania.
• Current situation: Hopper and adult groups increased in Mauritania. Adults and hoppers in Chad, Niger, Senegal and adults in Sudan. No locusts observed along the India-Pakistan border.
• Control operations: Increased in September (4 379 ha) compared to August (601 ha).
• Forecast: Summer breeding will continue in Mauritania, and conclude in Mali, Niger, Chad, and Sudan. Groups will continue to appear in Mauritania and maybe in Mali, Niger, Chad, southern Algeria and Sudan. No significant development expected along the India-Pakistan border.  

Overview:

Above-normal rainfall is expected in late September across the northern Sahel, Sudan, the southern Arabian Peninsula, and along the Indo-Pakistan border, and may persist into early October in West Africa and the Indo-Pakistan border area. A drying trend is anticipated across most regions in October and November due to a negative Indian Ocean Dipole. In December, rainfall may return to localized areas in all three regions, particularly along the Red Sea coasts of Egypt, Sudan, and Saudi Arabia, and could persist through February. Above-normal rainfall is also forecast for spring breeding areas in the Central and Eastern Regions. These rainfall patterns will support locust breeding in the northern Sahel and Sudan through September and early October. Breeding should decrease in November but may intensify again from December to March, especially along the Red Sea coasts.

Key points

• Overview: A small Desert Locust outbreak developed in Mauritania.
• Current situation: Hopper and adult groups increased in Mauritania. Isolated adults in Chad. In the Central Region, scattered adults in Sudan and isolated adults in Egypt. No locusts observed along the India-Pakistan border.
• Control operations: Decreased in August (573 ha) compared to July (6 421 ha).
• Forecast: Summer breeding will continue in Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad, southern Algeria, Sudan, and may start in Eritrea, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Yemen. Groups may continue to appear in the western Sahel. Very small-scale breeding may occur along the India-Pakistan border.

Overview:

Persistant above-normal rainfall is expected through late August and September across the northern Sahel from Niger to Sudan, the southern Arabian peninsula, and the Indo-Pakistan border. A drying trend is still anticipated in October and November, except along the Indo-Pakistan border, which may continue to receive good rains until monsoon withdraws in October. However, some above-average rains may return in December in the Western and Central regions. These rainfall patterns will continue to support favorable locust breeding conditions through the summer and early autumn, particularly in the Sahel and Sudan. The dry conditions expected to develop in October and November are associated with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole phase. However, this negative IOD may weaken by November.

Key points

• Overview: Desert Locust outbreaks declined significantly in the northern areas of the Western Region.
• Current situation: Hopper and adult groups decreased in Algeria and disappeared from Tunisia and Morocco. Adult groups and scattered adults in Mauritania. Isolated adults in Chad and Niger. In the Central Region, a few groups remained in Egypt. Scattered adults in Sudan. A few adults are present in Pakistan along the India-Pakistan border.
• Control operations: Decreased in July (6 421 ha) compared to June (23 014 ha).
• Forecast: Adult groups could still emerge in the Sahel in August. Summer breeding will continue in Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad, Sudan, and may start in southern Algeria and Eritrea. Very small-scale breeding may occur along the India-Pakistan border.

Overview:

The multi-model precipitation outlook continues to indicate a generally wet summer across the northern Sahel from Mali to Sudan, across the southern Arabian Peninsula, and the Indo-Pakistan border, with above-normal rainfall expected during August and September. A drying trend is anticipated in October and November, with dry conditions prevailing across most areas. However, some rains and residual moisture may persist in December in western Algeria, Morocco, Mauritania, and Niger. These rainfall patterns are likely to support favorable locust breeding conditions through the summer and early autumn, particularly in the Sahel and Sudan. Dry conditions are expected to develop and expand in East Africa during Northern Hemisphere autumn in association with the negative IOD phase.

Key points

• Overview: Desert Locust outbreaks declined in the northern areas of the Western Region but will shift south.
• Current situation: Hopper bands and immature swarms reported in Libya, while groups persisted in Algeria and decreased in Tunisia and Morocco. Adult groups were still present in Niger. Scattered adults in Mauritania. In the Central Region, a few groups remained in Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
• Control operations: Decreased in June (22 514 ha) compared to May (45 403 ha).
• Forecast: Adult groups and small swarms will move from North Africa southwest toward the Sahel in July. Summer breeding will start in southern Algeria, southwestern Libya, Chad, Niger, Mali, Mauritania and possibly Sudan. Very small-scale breeding may occur along the India-Pakistan border.

Overview:

Seasonal and subseasonal models continue to indicate a generally wet summer across the Sahel, southern Sahara, northeastern Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and the Indo-Pakistan border, with above-normal rainfall expected from July through September. A gradual drying trend is anticipated from October onward, with dry conditions returning across most areas by November. However, some residual moisture may persist into December in western Algeria, Morocco, Mauritania, and parts of Yemen and Oman. These rainfall patterns are likely to support favorable locust breeding conditions through the summer and early autumn, particularly in the Sahel and Sudan. The forecasted summer rains are being driven by persistent La Niña-like conditions, while the expected drying in autumn aligns with projections for the development of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole. 

Key points

• Overview: Desert locust outbreaks persisted in the Western Region
• Current situation: Hopper bands and immature adult groups increased in Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya. Adult groups and hoppers were also present in Morocco, Niger, and Chad. Scattered adults in Mauritania. In the Central Region, a few swarms and hopper bands in Egypt, adult groups in Sudan and a few bands in Saudi Arabia.
• Control operations: Increased in May (44 892 ha) compared to April (35 614 ha).
• Forecast: Adult groups and small swarms will continue forming in North Africa and begin moving southwest toward the Sahel in June and July. Summer breeding may start in southern Algeria, northern Niger, and Mauritania. Spring breeding will end in Egypt, Sudan, and Saudi Arabia, with adults moving south. Very small-scale breeding may begin along the India-Pakistan border.