Locust Watch

Briefs

Latest updates of the locust situation

19/09/2024

Overview:

Based on the latest subseasonal dynamical models, there has been minimal change in the locust areas compared to last month. Above-normal rains are expected to continue from mid-September to the first week of October, mainly in the northern Sahel of Mauritania and Mali, as well as along the Indo-Pakistan border where the monsoon will withdraw. As for the seasonal models, it is anticipated that La Niña will emerge and persist, leading to drier-than-normal conditions along the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden coasts during the winter. At the beginning of the spring, Northwest Africa, the interior of the Arabian Peninsula, and the coast of southeast Iran and southwest Pakistan can expect slightly higher rainfall than usual in March.
03/09/2024

Key points:

  • Overview: Moderate to heavy rainfall but only low numbers of locusts.
  • Current situation: Summer rains continuing in August from the northern Sahel of Mauritania to Eritrea, Arabian Peninsula, and the Indo-Pakistan border; adults in Sudan and parts of Mauritania, Algeria, Chad, Yemen, and Pakistan.
  • Forecast: A new generation may begin in October in Sudan and Yemen, where numbers are expected to increase significantly, and could occur in parts of the western region.

21/08/2024

Overview:

The latest subseasonal dynamical models suggest that above-normal rains will continue from now until the
end of September in the northern Sahel from Mauritania to Yemen, as well as the Indo-Pakistan border.
However, the seasonal models predict below-normal rainfall at the end of the summer, except for western
Mauritania in November. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to remain mostly negative, while La Niña is
still expected to develop slowly this autumn compared to the previous month. These two events typically
result in above-normal summer rains in the Sahel and along the Indo-Pakistan border. The winter breeding
areas along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are expected to become generally drier than normal, except along
southeast Egypt and northeast Sudan in December and January, followed by normal conditions from Eritrea
to Egypt in February.
02/08/2024

Key points:

  • Overview: summer rains improving;
  • Current situation: summer rains continuing in July along areas of the northern Sahel from Mauritania to Eritrea, and the Indo-Pakistan border; adults in Sudan and parts of Egypt, Algeria, Pakistan;
  • Control: some in Sudan during July;
  • Forecast: above-average rainfall will continue in August followed by a generation of breeding from Mauritania to western Eritrea, Yemen and the Indo-Pakistan border.
16/07/2024

Overview:

Since mid-March, the seasonal precipitation prediction for the past four months expected above-average
rainfall and favourable breeding conditions during the summer. Now all of the models have completely
reversed. The positive IOD phase is now negative and La Niña is likely to develop during the next few
months rather than El Niño. Nevertheless, normal to above-normal rains are expected during the northern
Sahel from Niger to Eritrea, across Arabia to Indo-Pakistan for August and September, and continuing during
October in Yemen. Mainly dry condition is anticipated in Mali and Mauritania. During the winter, dryness
will develop from October onwards along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden except in southeast Egypt, while
normal to above-normal rainfall may occur from November onwards in northwest Mauritania.
08/07/2024

Key points:

  • Overview: Locust numbers declined in the spring areas.
  • Current situation: Summer rains began in June along areas of the northern Sahel from Mauritania to Eritrea, and the Indo-Pakistan border; adults in Sudan and parts of Egypt, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Algeria.
  • Control: Operations continued to decrease by 75% in June compared to May.
  • Forecast: Above-average rainfall is expected in July and August followed by a generation of breeding from Mauritania to western Eritrea, Yemen and the Indo-Pakistan border.

 

18/06/2024

Overview:

Similar to the last few months, the seasonal precipitation prediction continues to suggest above-normal rainfall for July to September/October throughout the summer from Mauritania to western Eritrea, the interior of Yemen, and along the Indo-Pakistan border. The models indicate a connection between the developing La Niña in the northern Sahel and above-average rainfall in Pakistan and India, despite a slight decrease in the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). During winter, the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden coasts will see below-normal rainfall occurring earlier than usual, except for Yemen and southern Eritrea which could experience above-normal rain in October and November.

03/06/2024

Key points:

  • Overview: Outbreaks finished during the last winter and spring.
  • Current situation: One generation of limited spring breeding in Saudi Arabia and Egypt; low numbers of locus in Yemen and northern Somalia.
  • Control: Operations continued to decrease by 50% in May compared to April.
  • June: Above-average rainfall is expected to start at the end of June in the summer breeding areas of northern Sahel from Mauritania to western Eritrea, Yemen and the Indo-Pakistan border; there is a risk of cyclones in June along the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea.
13/05/2024

Overview:

The latest seasonal dynamical models are nearly the same as last month regarding the above-normal rainfall from eastern Africa across the Arabian Peninsula to northwest India from June through September. The models expect a rare combination of La Niña developing quickly and IOD being significantly positive. In addition, the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea may experience heightened cyclone activity in May and June. Indo-Pakistan is likely to experience an active and slightly above-normal monsoon starting at the end of June this year. In West Africa, above-normal rain is likely to start around July in Niger and Chad but could be delayed until August in Mauritania and Mali. The models predict below-normal rainfall for October and November along the Red Sea coast at the beginning of winter.


02/05/2024

Overview:

  • Outbreaks finished in Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan and reduced in Egypt and Saudi Arabia due to control operations.
  • Current situation: Second-generation hopper groups, bands, and immature adult groups declined.
  • Control: Operations decreased by 50% in April compared to March.
  • May: One generation of spring breeding will occur in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, and parts of northern Sudan, northwestern Somalia, southeast Iran, and southwest Pakistan; there is a risk of cyclones in May and June along the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea; consequently, countries must maintain survey and control efforts.


See also