Overview:

Dry conditions are expected across all regions in November. In the Western Region, above-normal rainfall is likely in December in Mauritania, Western Sahara, Morocco, and Algeria, which may favour breeding and expand the ongoing outbreak. Wetter-than-average conditions could continue into spring in Algeria, Libya, and northern Sahel areas, supporting locust breeding. In the Central Region, as negative IOD conditions weaken, rains may start around the Red Sea in December in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Sudan. Above-normal rainfall may persist through April, supporting breeding along Red Sea coasts in winter and in interior areas during spring. In the Eastern Region, dry conditions prevail until December. From January to April, near- to above-normal rainfall may allow small-scale spring breeding in Iran and Pakistan.

Key points:

• Overview: The Desert Locust outbreak intensified in Mauritania and spread into Western Sahara.
• Current situation: Breeding adult groups, hopper groups and bands increased in Mauritania and breeding groups spread into Western Sahara. Locusts were also found in Algeria, Chad, Sudan and Yemen and a few in Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
• Control operations: Increased in October (9 890 ha treated) compared to September (4 543 ha).
• Forecast: Breeding will continue in Mauritania and Western Sahara with new adult groups and small swarms. Groups may appear in Mali, Niger, Chad, Morocco, Algeria and Sudan.  

Key points:

• Overview: The localized outbreak in Mauritania has spread throughout western Mauritania and into Western Sahara.
• Current situation: Groups of adults and scattered adults are found breeding over 800 km from southwestern Mauritania to Oum Dreyga in Western Sahara. Hopper groups and bands of the second generation appeared in Mauritania. Adult groups were also found in Algeria and adults in several sites in Chad. 
• Control and surveys:  Surveys are essential in all countries. Control operations need to be intensified in Mauritania and will likely be required in Algeria, Mali, Morocco, and Niger.
• Forecasts: The second-generation breeding will continue in Mauritania and Western Sahara, generating bands and later small swarms that will migrate northward. Adult groups may appear in other Sahelian countries as well as Algeria, and later Morocco.

Overview:

Dry conditions are expected across all regions through November, with localized rainfall possibly occurring in Mauritania, Western Sahara, Algeria, Oman, Yemen, and along the Indo-Pakistan border. December may bring wetter-than-average conditions to the Western and Central Regions, especially in Mauritania, Western Sahara, and along the Red Sea coasts, followed by near-normal conditions in January and February. Hence, locust breeding is expected to potentially increase in December, particularly in Mauritania and the Red Sea coasts. Spring could be wetter than normal in Algeria, Libya, Sudan, Egypt, Iran, and Pakistan, where spring breeding could be favoured. The negative Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to persist into November, causing dryness, while La Niña may bring wetter conditions to northern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula in winter and spring—though this trend is weak and needs to be confirmed.

Key points

• Overview: A desert locust outbreak continued to develop in Mauritania.
• Current situation: Hopper and adult groups increased in Mauritania. Adults and hoppers in Chad, Niger, Senegal and adults in Sudan. No locusts observed along the India-Pakistan border.
• Control operations: Increased in September (4 379 ha) compared to August (601 ha).
• Forecast: Summer breeding will continue in Mauritania, and conclude in Mali, Niger, Chad, and Sudan. Groups will continue to appear in Mauritania and maybe in Mali, Niger, Chad, southern Algeria and Sudan. No significant development expected along the India-Pakistan border.  

Overview:

Above-normal rainfall is expected in late September across the northern Sahel, Sudan, the southern Arabian Peninsula, and along the Indo-Pakistan border, and may persist into early October in West Africa and the Indo-Pakistan border area. A drying trend is anticipated across most regions in October and November due to a negative Indian Ocean Dipole. In December, rainfall may return to localized areas in all three regions, particularly along the Red Sea coasts of Egypt, Sudan, and Saudi Arabia, and could persist through February. Above-normal rainfall is also forecast for spring breeding areas in the Central and Eastern Regions. These rainfall patterns will support locust breeding in the northern Sahel and Sudan through September and early October. Breeding should decrease in November but may intensify again from December to March, especially along the Red Sea coasts.

Key points

• Overview: A small Desert Locust outbreak developed in Mauritania.
• Current situation: Hopper and adult groups increased in Mauritania. Isolated adults in Chad. In the Central Region, scattered adults in Sudan and isolated adults in Egypt. No locusts observed along the India-Pakistan border.
• Control operations: Decreased in August (573 ha) compared to July (6 421 ha).
• Forecast: Summer breeding will continue in Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad, southern Algeria, Sudan, and may start in Eritrea, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Yemen. Groups may continue to appear in the western Sahel. Very small-scale breeding may occur along the India-Pakistan border.

Overview:

Persistant above-normal rainfall is expected through late August and September across the northern Sahel from Niger to Sudan, the southern Arabian peninsula, and the Indo-Pakistan border. A drying trend is still anticipated in October and November, except along the Indo-Pakistan border, which may continue to receive good rains until monsoon withdraws in October. However, some above-average rains may return in December in the Western and Central regions. These rainfall patterns will continue to support favorable locust breeding conditions through the summer and early autumn, particularly in the Sahel and Sudan. The dry conditions expected to develop in October and November are associated with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole phase. However, this negative IOD may weaken by November.

Key points

• Overview: Desert Locust outbreaks declined significantly in the northern areas of the Western Region.
• Current situation: Hopper and adult groups decreased in Algeria and disappeared from Tunisia and Morocco. Adult groups and scattered adults in Mauritania. Isolated adults in Chad and Niger. In the Central Region, a few groups remained in Egypt. Scattered adults in Sudan. A few adults are present in Pakistan along the India-Pakistan border.
• Control operations: Decreased in July (6 421 ha) compared to June (23 014 ha).
• Forecast: Adult groups could still emerge in the Sahel in August. Summer breeding will continue in Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad, Sudan, and may start in southern Algeria and Eritrea. Very small-scale breeding may occur along the India-Pakistan border.

Overview:

The multi-model precipitation outlook continues to indicate a generally wet summer across the northern Sahel from Mali to Sudan, across the southern Arabian Peninsula, and the Indo-Pakistan border, with above-normal rainfall expected during August and September. A drying trend is anticipated in October and November, with dry conditions prevailing across most areas. However, some rains and residual moisture may persist in December in western Algeria, Morocco, Mauritania, and Niger. These rainfall patterns are likely to support favorable locust breeding conditions through the summer and early autumn, particularly in the Sahel and Sudan. Dry conditions are expected to develop and expand in East Africa during Northern Hemisphere autumn in association with the negative IOD phase.