Briefs
Latest updates of the locust situation

5 February 2025: Outbreaks continue
05/02/2025
Key points:
- Overview: Outbreaks continued in Sudan, Eritrea and in the northern Sahel of Niger and southern Algeria.
- Current situation: Groups, bands and small swarms in Sudan; groups in Eritrea and Saudi Arabia; scattered locusts and a few swarms in Egypt; few swarms in Oman. Groups and breeding in Algeria; small swarms and breeding in Chad; groups in Niger; scattered adults and hoppers in Mali; adults in Morocco.
- Control operations: Doubled during January (37 727 ha) compared to December (16 991 ha).
- Forecast: Second-generation breeding is expected to continue with hoppers, groups and maybe few bands along the coast of Sudan and Saudi Arabia, and perhaps southeast Egypt and Eritrea. New hopper groups will appear in southern Algeria and adult groups will persist in Algeria, northern Niger and Chad. Some control operations will be required.

22 January 2025: Seasonal precipitation predictions
22/01/2025
Overview:
The latest seasonal dynamical models for February through April suggest dryness across the Central Region from the southern Arabian Peninsula to southwest Asia. In February, both sub-seasonal and seasonal predictions highlight unusually dry conditions across North Africa and the Near East. A second generation of winter breeding will persist along the Red Sea coasts. As noted last month, northwestern Africa tends to receive ample rains in late winter during La Niña, followed by wetter spring in the Sahara. Above-normal rainfall and warmer temperatures in spring are expected to support breeding from March along parts of northern Mali, Niger, Chad, Morocco, southern Algeria, and southwest Libya. Below-normal rainfall is expected in southeast Iran and southwest Pakistan during the spring, while pre-monsoon rain could occur in June along the Indo-Pakistan border.

17 January 2025: Desert Locust groups in northern Sahel areas
17/01/2025
Key points
- Overview: The December outbreak in Niger is probably an indicator of a more general situation in the Western Region. The two outbreaks in the Central Region remain.
- Current situation: Hopper and adult groups in northern Sahel and southern Sahara, while groups, bands and swarms around the Red Sea coast.
- Control and surveys: Necessary in all potential areas of the Western Region to better understand the situation and avoid further development; maintain ongoing efforts in Central Region.
January–March: Small-scale breeding may continue in northern Mali, Niger and Chad as well as southern Algeria; breeding will persist along the Red Sea.

6 January 2025: Outbreak in Eritrea
06/01/2025
Key points:
- Overview: Outbreaks continued in Niger and Sudan; small outbreak developed in Eritrea
- Current situation: Groups, bands and small swarms in Sudan; groups and bands in Eritrea; scattered locusts and a few groups along the coasts of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen; few swarms in Oman; isolated adults in northwest Somalia and India. Groups in Niger and Algeria; isolated hoppers and adults in Mauritania; few adults in Morocco.
- Control operations: Increase during December (14 553 ha) compared to November (4 162 ha)
- Forecast: Second-generation breeding is expected to continue with hatching, hoppers groups, and bands increasing from early January onwards along the coast of Sudan, Eritrea, and possibly southeast Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Small groups could persist in northern Niger and southern Algeria. Some control operations will be required.

18 December 2024: seasonal precipitation predictions
18/12/2024
Overview:
Similar to last month, the latest seasonal dynamical models suggest that a La Niña-like dry pattern willcontinue from East Africa to the Near East during the next few months. However, the anticipated dryness is
not as pronounced as in previous forecasts. Several seasonal models predict wetter conditions in January,
extending from northern Somalia to the central coast of the Red Sea. In northwestern Africa, it is rather
typical to become wetter than normal in late winter during La Niña, but there is little evidence of this in the
current forecasts. Consequently, only limited-scale breeding is expected in the Central Region during winter.
Normal rainfall and small-scale breeding may occur in northwest Africa during the spring in April and May,
while below-normal rainfall is expected in southwest Asia.

5 December 2024: outbreaks in Sudan and Niger
05/12/2024
Key points:
- Overview: A very small outbreak developed in Niger and continued in Sudan.
- Current situation: Groups and small bands and swarms in Sudan; scattered locusts and a few groups of hoppers and adults along the coasts of Saudi Arabia, Eritrea, Egypt and Yemen; isolated adults in northwest Somalia, Oman, and India. Groups and a swarm in Niger; isolated hoppers and adults in Mauritania; few adults in Algeria.
- Forecast: Groups and a few swarms from Sudan will migrate to the Red Sea coast for winter breeding. Locusts will increase and breed in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Egypt, and Eritrea, but more rain is needed in northwest Somalia. Drying vegetation may lead to a few swarms in Niger, while some groups in northeast Mali, southern Algeria, and northwest Mauritania. Some control operations will be required.

22 November 2024: seasonal precipitation predictions
22/11/2024
Overview:
Subseasonal dynamical models project normal to above-normal rainfall from the central Red Sea coast to the Gulf of Aden through the end of the year, particularly during the last week of November. Seasonal models suggest that a La Niña-like dry pattern will dominate much of northern Africa and the Middle East in the coming months. This pattern is anticipated to result in below-average rainfall across the Central Region during the winter and spring seasons, except for normal precipitation along the southern Red Sea coast from Sudan and Eritrea to Yemen and northwest Somalia in January. Consequently, only limited-scale breeding is expected in the Central Region during winter. In northwestern Africa, above-normal rainfall and small-scale breeding may occur during the spring, particularly in April.

4 November 2024: small outbreak in Sudan
05/11/2024
Key points:
- Overview: A very small outbreak developed in Sudan.
- Current situation: Low numbers of hoppers and adults from Mauritania to Saudi Arabia and Yemen; isolated adults in Egypt, Somalia, Pakistan, and India; groups and small bands in Sudan where a very small outbreak developed in the interior at the end of October.
- Forecast: As vegetation dries out, small groups of locusts will move from Sudan to the Red Sea coast where winter breeding will commence there as well as parts of Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia. A few small groups could form in Mauritania and perhaps parts of Mali, Niger, and Chad. Limited control is expected in some countries.

22 October 2024: seasonal precipitation predictions
22/10/2024
Overview:
The subseasonal dynamical models indicate below-normal rainfall in West Africa for November, while the seasonal models may suggest the opposite. A weakening of La Niña is anticipated. The main change from last month’s precipitation forecast is that wetter conditions are expected along the southern Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and northern Somalia during the rest of October and at least the first half of November according to some of the subseasonal models. Dry conditions are likely to continue in East Africa and the Near East throughout the winter, with the Arabian Peninsula likely becoming dry by January. As a result, only smallscale breeding is expected in the Central Region during winter, followed by perhaps a few places in the Western, Central, and Eastern regions during the spring.

4 October 2024: Summer breeding almost over
04/10/2024
Key points:
- Overview: Good rains and vegetation but mainly only low numbers of locusts.
- Current situation: Summer rains mainly during the first two dekads of September from the northern Sahel of Mauritania to Eritrea, Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia and Yemen, and the Indo-Pakistan border; scattered adults in parts of Mauritania, Niger, Chad, Somalia, and Pakistan; some hoppers in Egypt, Sudan, Saudi Arabia and Yemen; a few small groups in Sudan and Yemen.
- Forecast: Once summer vegetation dries out, small groups of locusts will move from Sudan to the Red Sea coast where winter breeding will start earlier than usual but more rain is needed. Limited control is expected in some countries. In the Western Region, a few small groups between Mauritania and Chad.