13 May 2024: seasonal precipitation predictions
Overview:
The latest seasonal dynamical models are nearly the same as last month regarding the above-normal rainfall from eastern Africa across the Arabian Peninsula to northwest India from June through September. The models expect a rare combination of La Niña developing quickly and IOD being significantly positive. In addition, the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea may experience heightened cyclone activity in May and June. Indo-Pakistan is likely to experience an active and slightly above-normal monsoon starting at the end of June this year. In West Africa, above-normal rain is likely to start around July in Niger and Chad but could be delayed until August in Mauritania and Mali. The models predict below-normal rainfall for October and November along the Red Sea coast at the beginning of winter.
