Overview:

Contrary to earlier forecasts, both seasonal and subseasonal models now predict a relatively dry June in the Sahel, while pre-monsoon rains may still occur in India and Pakistan. However, a generally wet summer is expected across all three regions, with above-normal rainfall likely from July to September in the Sahel and southern Sahara of northern Africa, along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden coasts, the Horn of Africa, the interior of the Arabian Peninsula, and the Indo-Pakistan border. Dry conditions are expected to return with the onset of winter. The anticipated above-normal rainfall this summer is associated with weak La Niña-like conditions.

Key points

• Overview: Desert Locust outbreaks persisted in southern Sahara and Northwestern Africa
• Current situation: Groups, breeding and bands increased in Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia; adult groups in Niger, breeding and groups in Morocco, adults and a small band in Chad. Adult groups and swarms declined along the Nile Valley of Sudan and Egypt; few bands and adult groups in Saudi Arabia.
• Control operations: Doubled during April (34 436 ha) compared to March (17 962 ha)
• Forecast: Spring breeding will continue in Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia with new hopper groups and bands. Adult groups and small swarms may migrate to Chad, Niger and Mali. Small-scale spring breeding may persist along the Nile Valley in Sudan and Egypt, and in the interior of Saudi Arabia. Control operations will be required.

Key points

• Overview: The outbreaks that spread to northwestern Africa in February and March continued in April.
• Current situation: Adult groups and bands increase in Sahara, while few groups and bands along the Nile Valley.
• Control and surveys: Surveys and controls are necessary in all potential spring breeding areas of the Western Region to avoid further development; maintain surveys in Central Region.
• Forecasts: Spring breeding is expected to continue in Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia and will form adult groups and small swarms from May to June that could then move south to the Sahel.

Overview:

The latest seasonal dynamical models predict below-normal rainfall in northern Africa during the rest of the spring. This includes the Sahara region from Morocco to Libya, the interior of Egypt, Sudan, the Arabian Peninsula, southeastern Iran, and southwestern Pakistan. For the summer season, above-normal rainfall is expected to begin in June along the central Sahel from Niger to Sudan, as well as the pre-monsoon of Indo-Pakistan. From July to September, above-normal rains are forecasted in the Sahel and southern Sahara of northern Africa, the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden coasts, the Horn of Africa, the interior of the Arabian Peninsula, and the Indo-Pakistan border. Below-normal rainfall is expected in October. Above-normal rainfall this summer is connected to La Niña conditions, which are likely to prevail.

Key points

• Overview: The desert locust outbreak of southern Sahara expanded to Northwestern Africa
• Current situation: Several breeding adult groups in Algeria, Libya, Morocco and southern Tunisia; hopper groups in Algeria, few small bands in Chad, Libya and Morocco. Adult groups and swarms along the Nile Valley of Sudan and Egypt; hopper bands in Saudi Arabia.
• Control operations: Decreased during March (17 962 ha) compared to February (25 748 ha)
• Forecast: Numbers will increase with spring breeding in Algeria, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia with hopper groups and bands.  Spring breeding will occur along the Nile Valley in northern Sudan and southern Egypt, and in the interior of Saudi Arabia. Control operations will be required.

Key points

• Overview: The outbreak that began in December in the Sahel spread to North Africa during February and March.
• Current situation: Groups of adults and small swarms arrived in central Algeria, western Libya and southern Tunisia.
• Control and surveys: Needed in all potential areas of the Western Region to better understand the situation and avoid further development.
• Forecast: Spring breeding in central Algeria, western Libya and southern Tunisia will generate small bands of hoppers from the beginning of April. These bands could lead to new small swarms from May until June.

Overview:

The latest seasonal dynamical models predict a change in northern Africa compared to last month. Consequently, the widespread above-normal rainfall during spring in Algeria and Libya from April to June is no longer indicated. Instead, precipitation will likely be normal or slightly dry in these regions. Dry conditions will persist across the Red Sea, the interior of the Arabian Peninsula, and the Horn of Africa, as well as southeastern Iran and southwestern Pakistan. For the summer, the models suggest wet conditions from July to August or September along the northern Sahel from Mali to Eritrea, extending further north to northern Sudan and southern Egypt, and along both sides of the Indo-Pakistan border. The primary cause of this summer’s anomaly is a typical La Niña event.

Key points:

• Overview: Outbreaks persisted in northern Sudan and the southern Sahara
• Current situation: Adult groups and swarms along the Nile Valley of Sudan and Egypt; hopper bands in Saudi Arabia. Groups and breeding in Algeria; small swarms in Chad; groups in Libya and Niger; adults in Morocco.
• Control operations: Decreased during February (25 058 ha) compared to January (41 877 ha)
• Forecast: Spring breeding is expected to commence along the Nile Valley in northern Sudan and southern Egypt, and in the interior of Saudi Arabia. Numbers are expected to increase in Algeria and Libya with hopper groups and bands and some will persist in Niger and Chad. Some control operations will be required.

Overview:

The latest seasonal dynamical models predict above-average rainfall in northern Africa’s Sahara, particularly in Algeria and Libya, during the spring months of March and April. In contrast, dry conditions and below-normal precipitation are expected to persist from the Horn of Africa to the southern Red Sea and the southern Arabian Peninsula through May. For the summer, the models indicate a potential for increased rainfall in the northern Sahel of Africa and along the Indo-Pakistan border in July and August. La Niña conditions developed in December 2024 and are expected to persist through March–April 2025. While they may extend into the summer, it is still too early to confirm.

Key points:

• Overview: Outbreaks continued in Sudan, Eritrea and in the northern Sahel of Niger and southern Algeria.
• Current situation: Groups, bands and small swarms in Sudan; groups in Eritrea and Saudi Arabia; scattered locusts and a few swarms in Egypt; few swarms in Oman. Groups and breeding in Algeria; small swarms and breeding in Chad; groups in Niger; scattered adults and hoppers in Mali; adults in Morocco. 
• Control operations: Doubled during January (37 727 ha) compared to December (16 991 ha).
• Forecast: Second-generation breeding is expected to continue with hoppers, groups and maybe few bands along the coast of Sudan and Saudi Arabia, and perhaps southeast Egypt and Eritrea. New hopper groups will appear in southern Algeria and adult groups will persist in Algeria, northern Niger and Chad. Some control operations will be required.