Overview:

Subseasonal dynamical models project normal to above-normal rainfall from the central Red Sea coast to the Gulf of Aden through the end of the year, particularly during the last week of November. Seasonal models suggest that a La Niña-like dry pattern will dominate much of northern Africa and the Middle East in the coming months. This pattern is anticipated to result in below-average rainfall across the Central Region during the winter and spring seasons, except for normal precipitation along the southern Red Sea coast from Sudan and Eritrea to Yemen and northwest Somalia in January. Consequently, only limited-scale breeding is expected in the Central Region during winter. In northwestern Africa, above-normal rainfall and small-scale breeding may occur during the spring, particularly in April.

Key points:

• Overview: A very small outbreak developed in Sudan.
• Current situation: Low numbers of hoppers and adults from Mauritania to Saudi Arabia and Yemen; isolated adults in Egypt, Somalia, Pakistan, and India; groups and small bands in Sudan where a very small outbreak developed in the interior at the end of October.
• Forecast: As vegetation dries out, small groups of locusts will move from Sudan to the Red Sea coast where winter breeding will commence there as well as parts of Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia. A few small groups could form in Mauritania and perhaps parts of Mali, Niger, and Chad. Limited control is expected in some countries. 
  

Overview:

The subseasonal dynamical models indicate below-normal rainfall in West Africa for November, while the seasonal models may suggest the opposite. A weakening of La Niña is anticipated. The main change from last month’s precipitation forecast is that wetter conditions are expected along the southern Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and northern Somalia during the rest of October and at least the first half of November according to some of the subseasonal models. Dry conditions are likely to continue in East Africa and the Near East throughout the winter, with the Arabian Peninsula likely becoming dry by January. As a result, only smallscale breeding is expected in the Central Region during winter, followed by perhaps a few places in the Western, Central, and Eastern regions during the spring.

Key points:

• Overview: Good rains and vegetation but mainly only low numbers of locusts.
• Current situation: Summer rains mainly during the first two dekads of September from the northern Sahel of Mauritania to Eritrea, Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia and Yemen, and the Indo-Pakistan border; scattered adults in parts of Mauritania, Niger, Chad, Somalia, and Pakistan; some hoppers in Egypt, Sudan, Saudi Arabia and Yemen; a few small groups in Sudan and Yemen.
• Forecast: Once summer vegetation dries out, small groups of locusts will move from Sudan to the Red Sea coast where winter breeding will start earlier than usual but more rain is needed. Limited control is expected in some countries. In the Western Region, a few small groups between Mauritania and Chad.

Overview:

Based on the latest subseasonal dynamical models, there has been minimal change in the locust areas compared to last month. Above-normal rains are expected to continue from mid-September to the first week of October, mainly in the northern Sahel of Mauritania and Mali, as well as along the Indo-Pakistan border where the monsoon will withdraw. As for the seasonal models, it is anticipated that La Niña will emerge and persist, leading to drier-than-normal conditions along the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden coasts during the winter. At the beginning of the spring, Northwest Africa, the interior of the Arabian Peninsula, and the coast of southeast Iran and southwest Pakistan can expect slightly higher rainfall than usual in March.

Key points:

• Overview: Moderate to heavy rainfall but only low numbers of locusts.
• Current situation: Summer rains continuing in August from the northern Sahel of Mauritania to Eritrea, Arabian Peninsula, and the Indo-Pakistan border; adults in Sudan and parts of Mauritania, Algeria, Chad, Yemen, and Pakistan.
• Forecast: A new generation may begin in October in Sudan and Yemen, where numbers are expected to increase significantly, and could occur in parts of the western region.

Overview:

The latest subseasonal dynamical models suggest that above-normal rains will continue from now until the
end of September in the northern Sahel from Mauritania to Yemen, as well as the Indo-Pakistan border.
However, the seasonal models predict below-normal rainfall at the end of the summer, except for western
Mauritania in November. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to remain mostly negative, while La Niña is
still expected to develop slowly this autumn compared to the previous month. These two events typically
result in above-normal summer rains in the Sahel and along the Indo-Pakistan border. The winter breeding
areas along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are expected to become generally drier than normal, except along
southeast Egypt and northeast Sudan in December and January, followed by normal conditions from Eritrea
to Egypt in February.

Key points:

• Overview: summer rains improving;
• Current situation: summer rains continuing in July along areas of the northern Sahel from Mauritania to Eritrea, and the Indo-Pakistan border; adults in Sudan and parts of Egypt, Algeria, Pakistan;
• Control: some in Sudan during July;
• Forecast: above-average rainfall will continue in August followed by a generation of breeding from Mauritania to western Eritrea, Yemen and the Indo-Pakistan border.

Overview:

Since mid-March, the seasonal precipitation prediction for the past four months expected above-average
rainfall and favourable breeding conditions during the summer. Now all of the models have completely
reversed. The positive IOD phase is now negative and La Niña is likely to develop during the next few
months rather than El Niño. Nevertheless, normal to above-normal rains are expected during the northern
Sahel from Niger to Eritrea, across Arabia to Indo-Pakistan for August and September, and continuing during
October in Yemen. Mainly dry condition is anticipated in Mali and Mauritania. During the winter, dryness
will develop from October onwards along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden except in southeast Egypt, while
normal to above-normal rainfall may occur from November onwards in northwest Mauritania.

Key points:

• Overview: Locust numbers declined in the spring areas.
• Current situation: Summer rains began in June along areas of the northern Sahel from Mauritania to Eritrea, and the Indo-Pakistan border; adults in Sudan and parts of Egypt, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Algeria.
• Control: Operations continued to decrease by 75% in June compared to May.
• Forecast: Above-average rainfall is expected in July and August followed by a generation of breeding from Mauritania to western Eritrea, Yemen and the Indo-Pakistan border.