Reference Date: 02-April-2025

Reduced 2024 cereal production mainly due to unfavourable weather conditions

Harvesting of the 2024 secondary deyr crops was completed in February 2025 in central and southern regions, where it typically accounts for about 40 percent of the total annual cereal output. The October‑December 2024 deyr rainy season was characterized by below‑average precipitation amounts and by an erratic spatial and temporal distribution of rains. In October 2024, early season dryness disrupted planting operations and affected the germination of early‑planted crops. Although average to above-average rainfall amounts in November improved vegetation condition and lifted crop prospects, the early cessation of rains at the beginning of December in several cropping areas affected plant maturation. The unfavourable weather conditions, compounded by insecurity hampering access to fields and by pest infestations, resulted in a below-average cereal production.

The minor karan harvest, gathered in November 2024 in northern regions, also had a below-average performance due to an erratic distribution of seasonal rains, while production of major gu crops, harvested in July 2024 in central and southern regions, was slightly above average.

Aggregate 2024 cereal production is estimated at 127 000 tonnes, about 18 percent below the already low average of the previous five years, which includes several consecutive poor harvests.

Land preparation for planting of the 2025 gu season crops is underway in central and southern regions, and seasonal rains are expected to start in April. Below‑average precipitation amounts are forecast, with a likely negative impact on yields. A close monitoring of weather conditions is warranted.

Pasture and water shortages in pastoral areas affecting livestock sector

The October‑December 2024 deyr rainy season was characterized by significantly below-average rainfall amounts also in central and northern pastoral areas. The limited regeneration of rangeland resources is causing significant pasture and water shortages, which, in turn, will have a negative impact on animal body condition, conception rates and milk production until the 2025 gu rains will bring some improvements.

Prices of cereals followed mixed patterns due to different performances of local harvests and weak market integration

Prices of locally grown maize and sorghum followed mixed patterns in January 2025, with the beginning of the deyr harvest, due to different performances of local harvests caused by the erratic spatial distribution of seasonal rains and by a weak market integration resulting from insecurity-related trade disruptions. For example, in Lower Shabelle Region, the main maize producing area, prices of maize declined by 10 percent between December 2024 and January 2025 in Marka Market, while they remained firm in Qorioley Market. Similarly, in the “Sorghum Belt” of Bay Region, prices of sorghum declined by 5 percent between December 2024 and January 2025 in Dinsoor Market, while they surged by 25 percent in Baidoa Market. Year‑on‑year price changes also followed mixed patterns, driven by local supply/demand dynamics.

In Burao Market, one of the main livestock markets in the Horn of Africa, prices of goats in January 2025 were around their year‑earlier levels. By contrast, prices of cereals were higher on a yearly basis, with sorghum prices in January 2025 about 40 percent higher than 12 months earlier. As a result, the livestock‑to‑cereal terms of trade for pastoralists deteriorated over the last 12 months and, in January 2025, a goat was equivalent to about 48 kg of sorghum, compared to about 68 kg in January 2024.

Food security situation expected to deteriorate in mid‑2025 mainly due to unfavourable weather conditions and reduced humanitarian assistance

According to the January 2025 Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 3.4 million people (17 percent of the analysed population) were estimated to face severe acute food insecurity between January and March 2025.

Following an updated analysis in March 2025, the number of people affected by severe acute food insecurity is projected to increase to 4.6 million (24 percent of the analysed population) between April and June 2025.The key drivers of the expected deterioration of the food security situation are the negative impact of forecasted below-average precipitation amounts during the April‑July 2025 gu rainy season on crops, livestock and agricultural employment opportunities, a further reduction of humanitarian assistance and an anticipated increase in population displacement due to drought and conflict.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .