Reference Date: 11-March-2026

Near-total failure of 2025 secondary Deyr harvest due to drought

Harvesting of 2025 secondary Deyr crops was completed in January 2026 in central and southern regions, where it typically accounts for about 40 percent of the total annual cereal output. The October to December 2025 Deyr rainy season failed and the ensuing drought conditions (ASI map) resulted in a dismal performance of the cropping season. Deyr season crop production (maize and sorghum) is estimated at about 15 600 tonnes, the lowest output on historical record and approximately 75 percent below the already low average of the previous five years, which includes three seasons with a reduced output.

The minor Gu/Karan harvest, gathered last November in northern regions, also had a poor performance due to well below-average rainfall amounts.

By contrast, production of 2025 major Gu crops, harvested last July in central and southern regions, was well above average, due to abundant and well-distributed precipitation.

Aggregate 2025 cereal production is estimated at 147 700 tonnes, about 4 percent above the average of the previous five years.

Land preparation for planting of the April to June 2026 Gu season crops is underway in central and southern regions, in anticipation of seasonal rains that are due to start in April. Weather forecasts point to a high likelihood of near-average to above-average precipitation amounts. However, there is a high level of uncertainty and close monitoring of weather conditions is warranted.

Livestock sector severely affected by water and pasture shortages

The October to December 2025 Deyr rains failed also in central and northern pastoral areas, with ensuing drought severely affecting the availability of pasture and water for livestock. Pastoralists were often forced to start livestock migration earlier and to move further than usual, increasing animal concentrations along migration routes, with a higher risk of disease transmission. Animal body conditions are at very low levels and livestock deaths due to starvation and diseases, reported since late 2025, increased during the January to March 2026 Jilaal dry season. Milk production is at very low levels, with a negative impact on the diet and incomes of pastoralist households.

Prices of cereals surging due to dismal performance of Deyr harvest

Retail prices of cereals surged in late 2025 and early 2026 in most monitored markets, as seasonal patterns were compounded by concerns over the dismal performance of the 2025 Deyr cropping season.

Prices of sorghum in Dinsoor Market, located in the sorghum belt in Baidoa Region, and prices of maize in Qorioley Market, located in Lower Shabelle Region, the main maize producing area, more than doubled between September 2025 and January 2026. Prices of sorghum and maize in these markets in January 2026 were more than twice their year-earlier values.

Similarly, in the capital, Mogadishu, prices of sorghum and maize increased by 25 and 45 percent, respectively, between November 2025 and January 2026, when they were about 20 percent higher year‑on-year.

Food security situation significantly deteriorated in early 2026 due to negative impact of drought on crops and livestock

According to the results of the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 6.5 million people (33 percent of the population) are estimated to face IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse levels of acute food insecurity between February and March 2026. This figure includes about 2 million people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), which is about 50 percent higher than in the October to December 2025 period and almost twice the estimate in the same period of the previous year.

The high prevalence of food insecurity and its sharp increase are due to the negative impact on crops and livestock of the drought as well as the protracted conflict which continues disrupting and damaging local livelihoods.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .