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  Chad

Reference Date: 30-June-2021

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Cropping season in 2021 proceeding under favourable moisture conditions

  2. Near‑average output recorded in 2020

  3. Prices of coarse grains generally stable in April 2021

  4. Acute food insecurity conditions expected to worsen in 2021

Cropping season in 2021 proceeding under favourable moisture conditions

Following a timely onset of seasonal rains in the Sudanian zone in May and in the Sahelian zone in June, planting of the 2021 coarse grain crops (maize, millet, sorghum and rice) are ongoing and will be completed in July. Cumulative rainfall amounts since May have been average to above average in most planted areas, supporting crops at different growing stages (ASI map). The conditions of crops to be harvested from September are generally favourable. Normal weeding activities are taking place in most cropped areas.

The latest weather forecast by the Forum of the Agro Hydro Climatic Seasonal Forecast in Sudano Sahelian Africa (PRESASS) points to above‑average rainfall amounts until October 2021. These conditions are expected to have a positive impact on crop yields and availability of pasture as well as water for livestock. However, localized production shortfalls are likely to occur in some areas bordering Lac Chad (large producing area) as flooding is expected in July‑August 2021. Overall, the 2021 cereal crop production is forecast at a slightly below‑average level.

In most pastoral areas of the country, seasonal rains increased water and pasture availability in June 2021, improving livestock body conditions and enhancing animal market value. The availability of pasture is adequate across the country, with the exception of some areas in the northern regions, including Ennedi‑east and Ennedi‑west, which already experienced pasture deficits in 2020. The seasonal return of domestic transhumant herds from Sudanian to Sahelian areas started in May following the timely onset of the rains in the south and is expected to continue in July with the onset of rainfall in northern pastoral areas. The animal health situation is overall stable, with just some seasonal outbreaks of epizootic diseases, such as the Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) in sheep and goats and the Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in cattle.

Near‑average output recorded in 2020

Abundant rains had an overall beneficial impact on crops and the 2020 cereal crop production is estimated at near‑average levels. Localized production shortfalls were recorded in the regions of Logone Occidentale, Logone Orientale, Mayo‑Kebbi Est, Mayo Kebbi Ouest and Tandjilé due to pockets of drought in August as well as flooding in July and August in the provinces of Ndjamena and Mandoul, and in areas bordering Lac Chad.

Import requirements for the 2020/21 marketing year (November/October), mainly rice and wheat flour, are set at an above‑average level of 220 000 tonnes. This is explained by the strong demand by traders to replenish their stocks and to supply the northern regions including Tibesti, Borkou and Ennedi as trade flows from Libya have been hampered for several months due insecurity along the border.

Prices of coarse grains generally stable in April

In N’Djamena, coarse grain prices were stable since early 2021 as a result of adequate availabilities. However, prices remained above their year‑earlier levels due to localized production shortfalls last year, COVID‑19‑related restrictions are hindering market activities and localized market disruptions stemming from persistent insecurity.

The export demand for livestock remained below average since early 2021 due to the closure of the borders with Nigeria and Libya (main outlets), increasing the supply on local markets. Overall, the livestock markets showed a general decline in prices of live animals in May, with the exception of a few cases, including Goz Beida and N’Djamena, due to strong local demand.

Acute food insecurity conditions expected to worsen in 2021

Overall food security conditions are expected to worsen during the 2021 lean season (June‑August) due to localized production shortfalls in 2020, the decline in livelihood activities as a result of the effects of the COVID‑19 pandemic and the lingering impact of persisting civil insecurity. According to the March  2021 "Cadre Harmonisé" analys is, the aggregate number of severely food insecure people (CH Phase 3: “Crisis” and above) between June and August 2020 is estimated at about 1.7 million people, well above the 1 million estimated for the same period in 2020.

The persisting conflict in Lake Chad Basin and Tibesti Region continues to cause massive population displacements as well as hinder food availability and access. This conflict is severely affecting the livelihoods of most households that continue to highly depend on external food assistance to cover their basic food needs. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), as of May 2021, about 401 500 people were internally displaced due to insecurity in Lake Chad Province, well above the 170 280 people estimated a year earlier. In addition, the country hosts about 504 584 refugees from neighbouring countries, including the Central African Republic, Nigeria and the Sudan, affected by persisting civil conflicts.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.