Reference Date: 01-August-2022
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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Total cereal production in 2022 forecast 40 percent lower year on year and 30 percent below five‑year average level
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Unless significant volumes shipped from maritime ports resume, exports likely to be well below average in 2022/23
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About 15.7 million people in need of humanitarian assistance
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Total cereal production in 2022 forecast 40 percent lower year on year and 30 percent below average
The 2022 winter crops (wheat and rapeseed), sown last October, are currently being harvested. Weather conditions during the season were overall favourable, but the escalation of the conflict in late February 2022 cast uncertainty over the final crop output. Between 20 and 30 percent of the area planted to the 2022 winter crops may not be harvested as a result of direct destruction, constrained access to fields, labour shortages and lack of economic resources.
Planting of sunflower and spring cereal crops, including maize, finalized in mid-June on fields without the remnants of the war, despite being constrained by fuel shortages. According to estimates by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, maize crops were planted on about 4.6 million hectares, 15 percent below the 2021 area and 7 percent below average. Sunflower crops were sown on 4.7 million hectares, 30 percent below the level of the previous year and 25 percent below the five‑year average level. The aggregate area sown with spring crops is about 20 percent less than the 2021 above‑average level.
Overall, in 2022, the reduced area harvested and the decline in yields due to hampered access to inputs, caused by limited access to financial services and high prices, are expected to result in a reduction of cereal production by 40 percent compared to the previous year's exceptional results and by about 30 percent compared to the five-year average level. The current forecast for the 2022 cereal harvest indicates a production of about 51 million tonnes: 20 million tonnes of wheat, 24 million tonnes of maize and about 7 million tonnes of other coarse grains. Similarly, the harvest of oilseeds is likely to decrease as production of sunflower seed is expected at 7.5 million tonnes (45 percent below the previous year’s level), while production of soybeans and rapeseed is expected at 2.0 million and 1.7 million tonnes, respectively.
Higher‑than‑expected carryover stocks resulting from the sudden halt of exports in February 2022 remain stored in local storage facilities. While there is enough capacity to store the currently harvested wheat production, there are serious concerns for the maize crop, to be harvested in October, and it is likely to be a decisive factor shaping farmers’ harvesting decisions.
Unless significant volumes shipped from maritime ports resume, exports likely to be well below average in 2022/23
As of end‑July, closures of maritime ports and damages to transport and storage infrastructure are expected to continue to limit exports in the 2022/23 marketing year (July/June). Currently, grain and other agricultural commodities are mostly transported by rail and river routes, capacity of which is well below those of cargo ships, also due to logistical challenges, partially caused by different railway gauges. Total cereal exports in 2022/23 are tentatively forecast to be about 40 percent below the five‑year average volume; exports of maize and wheat are forecast at 15 million and 10 million tonnes, respectively, the lowest levels in the last ten years.
However, re‑opening of some Ukrainian marine ports on the Black Sea would allow for larger quantities to be exported.
In early March 2022, the government suspended the exports of some food products, including oats, buckwheat, millet, rye, barley, rapeseed, meat, sugar and salt. The decision was taken to safeguard domestic food supplies, amid the ongoing conflict. In addition, export licensing requirements were introduced for other commodities, including wheat and meslin (
FPMA Food Policy
). On 1 July 2022, the government
adopted
Resolution 759
, which cancels wheat and meslin export licenses, lifts the export ban on oats and introduces export licenses.
About 15.7 million people in need of humanitarian assistance
Already prior to the start of the war, about 1.5 million people had been displaced as a result of the nearly eight‑year conflict in eastern areas and about 1.1 million people were in need of food and livelihood assistance. The ongoing conflict is increasing humanitarian needs within the country as well as in neighbouring countries where displaced populations are seeking refuge. As of 19 July 2022, about 9.5 million people, mostly women and children, had been forced to abandon their homes and flee across borders to find safe shelter, with almost 4.8 million refugees crossing borders with Poland.
According to the
April Update
of the Ukraine Flash Appeal 2022 issued by the United Nations, about 15.7 million people are estimated to be in urgent need of humanitarian assistance and protection, including 7.7 million internally displaced people. Although some people have recently returned to their homes, there are still large numbers of IDPs located in the western parts of the country.
It is extremely difficult to predict the evolution of the war and its effect on lives, livelihoods, food security and nutrition in the coming months. Food security conditions remain particularly concerning in besieged cities, where often humanitarian access is severely constrained.
The prevalence and severity of food insecurity will depend on the length and scale of the conflict and urban areas are likely to be more affected as most rural dwellers typically cultivate some land to produce food to supplement their household’s diets.
According to the May 2022
WFP Food Security Report
, at national level, one‑third of the households were food insecure, of which 5 percent were severely food insecure.
Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
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FAO, Note on the impact of the war on food security in Ukraine, July 2022:
https://www.fao.org/3/cc1025en/cc1025en.pdf
