Economic and Policy Analysis of Climate Change

Working papers

Harvesting trees to harvest cash crops: The role of internal migrants in forest land conversion in Uganda

Working papers

In this work, we merge socio-economic data with data on deforestation to explore the interrelationship between rural migration, the development of commercial agricultural sector, and forest cover loss. Specifically we test the role of cash crop producers and inter-district migrants on the tree loss in the parish of residence, while controlling for several other household-level and parish-level contributing factors of deforestation, including population density, proximity to markets and protected areas. Also, we investigate the agricultural channel, specifically producing cash crops, [...]

Assessing the profitability and feasibility of climate-smart agriculture investment in Southern Malawi

Working papers

This working paper analyses the financial cost and benefit of adopting two different bundles of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices, which are tailored for the diverse conditions that prevail in southern Malawi. The results show the integration of CSA practices, including soil conservation, agroforestry, and livestock diversification, into conventional maize-legume and maize monocrop systems is profitable for farmers. Moreover, the profitability of these systems increases under extreme weather conditions that occur with increasing frequency in the region. However, the upfront costs [...]

Public expenditure analysis for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the agricultural sector – A case study of Uganda

Working papers

This paper presents a methodology for public expenditure review and analysis for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the agricultural sector. It outlines the basic methodological concepts, including the classification of public expenditures in the context of their links to climate change adaptation and mitigation. It also illustrates how such analysis can usefully contribute to policy decision making to better achieve the climate change adaptation and mitigation goals using the case study of Uganda. The proposed classification allows for analysing [...]

Leveraging social protection to advance climate-smart agriculture: evidence from Malawi

Working papers

In many developing countries the adoption of climate sustainable practices is hindered by resource and risk barriers. This paper assesses the interactions between participation in Malawi’s largest public works programme, the Malawi Social Action Fund (MASAF), and three widely promoted climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices. The underlying hypotheses to be tested are: (a) that participation in the MASAF programme reduce both the budget and the risk constraints to the adoption of sustainable management practices; and (b) the joint treatment effect of [...]

The challenge of making climate adaptation profitable for farmers: evidence from Sri Lanka’s rice sector

Working papers

Increased incidences of drought and water scarcity due to climate change is an important challenge facing Sri Lanka’s agricultural sector. Identifying farm practices that can reduce its adverse impacts on agricultural production and farmers’ livelihoods is a key policy objective in Sri Lanka. This paper makes use of household survey data collected in Anurādhapura District to evaluate the impacts of 11 drought adaptation practices adopted by farmers in the district. The impacts of the practices are estimated simultaneously along two [...]

Adapting to high temperatures: evidence on the impacts of sustainable agricultural practices in Uganda

Working papers

Rising temperatures due to climate change pose a significant threat to agricultural systems and the livelihoods of farmers across the globe. Identifying farm management strategies that reduce sensitivity to high temperatures is, therefore, critical for moderating the adverse effects of climate change. In this paper, we use spatially granular climate data merged with four waves of household survey data in Uganda to examine empirically the relationships between high temperatures, agricultural production outcomes, and the adoption (including its duration) of three [...]

Smallholder adaptive responses to seasonal weather forecasts

Working papers

Does receiving information on potential adverse weather conditions induce adaptive responsesby smallholders? Do market institutions ease constraints to adaptation of these practices? Thisreport examines these questions using a unique panel dataset of Zambian smallholderhouseholds collected before and after 2015/16 El Niño Southern Oscillation event. The analysisfinds that farmers receiving drought-related seasonal forecasts are more likely to integratedrought tolerant crops into their cropping systems and to acquire improved maize seedvarieties. These farmers, on average, are found to apply double the quantity [...]

Climate-change vulnerability in rural Zambia: the impact of an El Niño-induced shock on income and productivity

Working papers

This paper examines the impacts of the El Niño during the 2015/2016 season on maize productivity and income in rural Zambia. The analysis aims at identifying whether and how sustainable land management (SLM) practices and livelihood diversification strategies have contributed to moderate the impacts of such a weather shock. The analysis was conducted using a specifically designed survey called the El Niño Impact Assessment Survey (ENIAS), which is combined with the 2015 wave of the Rural Agricultural Livelihoods Surveys (RALS), [...]

How do extreme weather events affect livestock herders' welfare? Evidence from Kyrgyzstan

Working papers

This study seeks to expand our understanding of the implications of weather shocks on thewelfare of livestock owning households in Kyrgyzstan and to identify policy options that canenhance the resilience of these vulnerable households. More specifically, the study has threeobjectives. First, it examines the short (one year) and medium-term (four years) impacts of theharsh winter on the welfare of livestock owning household (measured in terms of foodconsumption expenditure) using a unique, multi-year panel data set. Measuring the impact attwo points [...]

Climate resilience pathways of rural households: evidence from Ethiopia

Working papers

This paper explores the resilience capacity of rural Ethiopian households after the drought shock occurred in 2011. The work develops an original empirical framework able to capture the policy and socio-economic determinants of households’ resilience capacity by making parametric statistical assumption on the resilience distribution. To this end, the analysis employs a two-wave representative panel dataset aligned with detailed weather records while controlling for a large set of household- and community-level characteristics. The analysis shows that the majority of these [...]
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