Between August and October 2020, corresponding to the post-harvest season, it is estimated that a total of 11.15 million people (36% of the analysed population) were facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) and require urgent humanitarian action in Afghanistan. This included around 7.54 million people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and 3.6 million people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Around 11.34 million people were also in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and require livelihood support.

Between November 2020 and March 2021, corresponding to the lean season, around 13.15 million people (42% of the total population) are likely to experience high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), out of which an estimated 8.85 million people will likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and nearly 4.3 million people will likely be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Furthermore, around 10.6 million people are expected to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

Key Drivers

• COVID-19: The consequences of restrictions imposed due to COVID-19 have resulted in a significant decrease of daily wage opportunities and small trader income. 
• Conflict: Ongoing conflict in most provinces has led to displacement, caused loss of livelihoods, or affected people’s livelihoods. Access to contested areas remained limited during the current period and is expected to remain the same during projection. 
• High Food Prices: High food prices of commodities have negatively impacted the purchasing power of people and further exacerbates food access, especially for households already living below the poverty line.
• Floods: Floods have resulted in the loss of shelters and productive assets, causing displacement and increasing food insecurity.