FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief
The Cereal Supply and Demand Brief provides an up-to-date perspective of the world cereal market. The monthly brief is supplemented by a detailed assessment of cereal production as well as supply and demand conditions by country/region in Crop Prospects and Food Situation, published three times per year. More in-depth analyses of world markets for cereals, as well as other major food commodities, are published biannually in Food Outlook.
Monthly release dates for 2026: 6 February, 6 March, 3 April, 8 May, 5 June, 3 July, 4 September, 2 October, 6 November, 4 December.
Global cereal production forecast lowered; uncertainty persists over Black Sea export flows
Release date: 04/09/2026
FAO's latest forecast for global cereal production in 2026 has been scaled back by 3.4 million tonnes since July, now standing at 2 980 million tonnes. The latest revision puts the 2026 output 61.1 million tonnes (2.0 percent) ) below the previous year’s level, marking the largest annual decline since 2018. Nevertheless, it would still rank as the second-largest harvest on record. The downward revision to global production is largely linked to maize. World maize output is now forecast at 1 309 million tonnes, 0.6 percent below the June projection. The reduction is primarily driven by worsening crop prospects in the European Union, where persistent summer heat and dryness across central producing areas, in particular France and Poland, degraded crop conditions and curtailed yield expectations to below the five-year averages. Smaller downward revisions in India and Paraguay, based on the latest official estimates, contributed further to the decline. These reductions more than offset upward revisions in Argentina and Brazil where better-than-expected yields are likely to result in well above-average outputs in 2026. By contrast, the global wheat production forecast has been raised by 0.5 percent (4.2 million tonnes) to 810.7 million tonnes. Despite this upward revision, the output would still fall 3.8 percent short of last year’s level, although it would remain the second largest outturn on record. The increase largely reflects upward revisions to production forecasts in Canada and Morocco, where forecasts were raised by around 1.5 million tonnes each, based on improved yield expectations. Additional upward revisions in the Russian Federation and Ukraine further contributed to the increase in the global figure this month. These upturns more than outweighed cuts to forecasts in the European Union and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, where sparse rainfall and high temperatures curbed yields. FAO has raised its rice production forecast for Myanmar since July, reflecting upward revisions to the country’s historical output figures. Coupled with excellent yield results for the main-crop cycle reported by authorities in Sri Lanka, this amendment offset slight downgrades for China and the Philippines, and a larger cut for the United States of America, where plantings fell to multi-decade lows. As a result of these changes, world rice production is now forecast at 553.1 million tonnes (milled basis) in 2026/27, down 1.9 percent from a revised 2025/26 estimate, with the decline attributable to a combination of reduced producer margins and adverse weather often associated with the El Niño phenomenon.
World cereal utilization in 2026/27 is forecast at 2 965 million tonnes, up 4.1 million tonnes (0.1 percent) since July and 5.5 million tonnes (0.2 percent) higher than the 2025/26 level. The 2025/26 utilization estimate has also been revised upward by 7.5 million tonnes since July on greater-than-previously-expected feed use of coarse grains. While total utilization of coarse grains and rice is expected to continue expanding in 2026/27, utilization of wheat is forecast to decline from the high level reached in 2025/26 after a bumper global harvest in 2025 led to large quantities of wheat being used for animal feed and, to a lesser extent, industrial purposes in 2025/26. Total utilization of coarse grains, while scaled down slightly since July, is forecast to grow in 2026/27 from its already-high level in 2025/26. This outlook is supported by continued strong feed demand, including sustained barley use in China and ongoing use of abundant maize supplies in the United States of America following the bumper 2025 harvest. Following a 0.8-million-tonne upgrade since July, world rice utilization is pegged at 559.0 million tonnes in 2026/27, up 0.5 percent from 2025/26, sustained by a population-led expansion in food use.
The forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2027 has been lowered by 10.7 million tonnes (1.1 percent) since the previous forecast in July to 947.2 million tonnes. At this level, global cereal stocks would stand just 1.8 million tonnes (0.2 percent) above opening levels. Global ending stocks of wheat are raised slightly this month as build-ups in the Russian Federation and Ukraine, resulting from restricted Black Sea export routes and likely insufficient capacity of alternative export channels, are expected to outweigh a down-scaling to stocks in the European Union due to a reduced harvest. However, opening stock levels are also reduced as exporters, most notably Canada, continued to ship large volumes to importers globally in the first half of 2026. By contrast, stocks of coarse grains, previously expected to increase substantially in 2026/27 are now expected to remain at their opening levels as the forecast for coarse grain ending stocks is cut by 13.5 million tonnes (3.4 percent) with reductions this month to both maize and barley stocks. Ending stocks of maize are lowered in the United States of America as the strong pace of exports seen over recent months continues into the 2026/27 season. Lower ending stock levels of maize are also foreseen in the European Union and Paraguay after downward revisions to production forecasts. Barley stocks are also revised downwards as China continues to direct supplies towards feed use. Globally, the resulting world stocks-to-use ratio for cereals at the end of seasons in 2026/27 is forecast at 31.6 percent, down from the previous season’s level of 31.9 percent but still indicating a relatively comfortable supply level from a historical perspective. World rice stocks at the close of 2026/27 marketing seasons are now predicted at 215.1 million tonnes, up 1.0 million tonnes since July, as higher reserve expectations for the Islamic Republic of Iran, Myanmar, and the Philippines more than compensated for downgrades namely for the United States of America. Despite the revision, world rice carry-overs are still seen 2.7 percent below their record opening level, reflecting anticipated drawdowns by rice exporters.
The forecast for world trade in cereals in 2026/27 (Jul/Jun) is revised upward slightly this month by 1.7 million tonnes (0.3 percent) to 509.3 million tonnes. The revision mainly reflects stronger maize trade prospects, with the United States of America expected to consolidate its position as the largest exporter amid robust global demand and stronger export competitiveness. Argentina is also expected to export a larger volume, up to 39.0 million tonnes, bringing exports to a level close to that of Brazil. Fresh demand will come from Europe, where import requirements are expected to grow following substantial downward reductions to production forecasts. The latest outlook also reflects continued uncertainty surrounding Black Sea export flows. While exports from the Russian Federation and Ukraine are expected to remain substantial, evolving shipping conditions and logistics risks coupled with capacity constraints of alternative routes have increased uncertainty over the pace and distribution of supplies, prompting importers to consider diversification of purchases and supporting stronger shipment prospects from other origins. Despite this month’s upward revision, world cereal trade is still expected to fall from the record levels of the 2025/26 season. Recent data point to a strong finish of the season for major wheat exporters, notably Canada and the European Union as well as for the United States of America, the leading maize exporter. Global trade in barley in 2026/27 is revised down as export forecasts are trimmed for the European Union, the Russian Federation and Ukraine which are expected to outweigh continued shipments by Australia and Canada, especially to China. FAO’s forecast of international rice trade in 2026 (January-December) has been raised by 0.7 million tonnes to 60.5 million tonnes, as more buoyant import expectations namely for the Philippines offset import downgrades for various Western African countries, particularly Senegal. Nonetheless, world rice trade is still anticipated to fall 1.9 percent below the 2025 record-high, amid prospects of reduced Asian and African import demand.
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