FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief

The Cereal Supply and Demand Brief provides an up-to-date perspective of the world cereal market. The monthly brief is supplemented by a detailed assessment of cereal production as well as supply and demand conditions by country/region in Crop Prospects and Food Situation, published three times per year. More in-depth analyses of world markets for cereals, as well as other major food commodities, are published biannually in Food Outlook.

Monthly release dates for 2026: 6 February, 6 March, 3 April, 8 May, 5 June, 3 July, 4 September, 2 October, 6 November, 4 December.

Global cereal production remains high but trade set to contract on logistical constraints

Release date: 06/11/2026

At 2 999 million tonnes, world cereal production (including rice in milled equivalent) is forecast to retreat from the 2025 record in 2026, while remaining at the second-highest level on record. Production is expected to decline across all major cereals, most markedly for wheat, while coarse grains are forecast to register only a marginal decrease. Rice production is set to contract for the first time in four seasons, falling by 2.5 percent to 552.0 million tonnes, largely reflecting poor producer margins and El Niño-related adverse weather.

World cereal utilization in 2026/27 is forecast at 2 971 million tonnes, up 5.6 million tonnes, or 0.2 percent, from 2025/26. Food consumption accounts for most of the increase, with food use of both wheat and rice rising by just over 4.0 million tonnes, or 0.8 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively, slightly below the pace of global population growth. Feed use, by contrast, is forecast to decline by 6.5 million tonnes, or 0.6 percent, as lower use of wheat and sorghum outweighs increased barley use, particularly amid plentiful domestic supplies in the Syrian Arab Republic and Türkiye. Industrial use is also forecast to grow, especially for maize, supported by demand for ethanol production. Overall rice utilization is expected to increase by 0.6 percent to 558.8 million tonnes, exceeding anticipated production.

Global cereal stocks are forecast to rise by 17.2 million tonnes, or 1.8 percent, by the close of seasons in 2027, largely reflecting higher wheat inventories in the Russian Federation and Ukraine, where export disruptions are contributing to an accumulation of supplies. Coarse grain stocks are also expected to increase, with higher maize inventories in South America and higher barley stocks in Australia and Ukraine. By contrast, global rice reserves are forecast to decline, although record carry-ins should cushion the drawdown and leave stocks at 216.5 million tonnes, their second-highest level on record. Consequently, the global cereal stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 32.4 percent, slightly above the previous season’s level.

World cereal trade in 2026/27 is forecast to contract by 17.4 million tonnes, or 3.3 percent, to 507.7 million tonnes. An 18.1 million tonnes, or 8.6 percent, fall in wheat trade is the main driver, with shipments from all major exporters declining amid supply or logistical constraints. Barley trade is also expected to fall, while maize trade is forecast to increase by 4.5 million tonnes, or 2.2 percent, supported by large exportable supplies in Argentina. Moving in the opposite direction, rice trade is forecast to recover by 2.9 percent in 2027 to 61.6 million tonnes, underpinned by firmer import demand and increased shipments from India and Pakistan.

Summary Tables