FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief
The Cereal Supply and Demand Brief provides an up-to-date perspective of the world cereal market. The monthly brief is supplemented by a detailed assessment of cereal production as well as supply and demand conditions by country/region in Crop Prospects and Food Situation, published three times per year. More in-depth analyses of world markets for cereals, as well as other major food commodities, are published biannually in Food Outlook.
Monthly release dates for 2026: 6 February, 6 March, 3 April, 8 May, 5 June, 3 July, 4 September, 2 October, 6 November, 4 December.
Cereal production forecast largely unchanged; trade outlook lowered on Black Sea disruptions
Release date: 02/10/2026
FAO's latest forecast for global cereal production in 2026 has remained broadly unchanged this month at 2 979 million tonnes. At this level, the global output stands 2.1 percent below the previous year’s all-time high but would still rank as the second largest harvest on record. Although the aggregate outlook has changed little since September, there have been revisions at the crop level, with improved wheat production prospects largely offsetting lower expectations for coarse grains.
World wheat production has been raised by 3.2 million tonnes and is now forecast at 813.9 million tonnes in 2026. Despite this upward revision, the global output is still expected to decline by 3.3 percent from the previous year. The increase reflects improved crop conditions in Australia, where better-than-expected weather in July and August lifted yield expectations. Even so, Australian wheat yields are still forecast to remain below average, and the increased likelihood of below-average rainfall at the tail end of the season continues to pose a downside risk to final results.
Global coarse grain production has been lowered by 3.3 million tonnes this month, and is pegged at 1 612 million tonnes, representing a 1.3 percent year-on-year decline. The reduction is largely driven by reduced prospects for global maize production, as dry and hot weather in the European Union and the United States of America has curtailed yield potential. By contrast, improved rainfall in Australia has strengthened barley prospects, partly offsetting the downward revision to global maize production.
As for rice, larger than previously anticipated plantings have raised production forecasts for Japan and Nepal since September. However, these amendments were outweighed by somewhat more subdued output prospects for India, where in addition to curbing main-crop plantings, reduced and poorly distributed monsoon rains have tightened water supplies for irrigation in southern producing states, which contribute an important share of offseason production. As a result of these revisions, global rice output is now forecast at 552.5 million tonnes (milled basis) in 2026/27, down 0.7 million tonnes from September expectations and 2.4 percent below the 2025/26 record outcome. Asia remains forecast to account for much of the forecast annual production reduction, although smaller crops are anticipated to be harvested in all regions other than Africa.
World cereal utilization in 2026/27 is forecast at 2 966 million tonnes, up 4.1 million tonnes (0.1 percent) from the 2025/26 level. Increased utilization of coarse grains and rice is expected to more than offset a decline in wheat, whose exceptionally large 2025 harvest led to weaker prices, boosting feed and industrial demand in 2025/26. While the forecast for overall cereal utilization is virtually unchanged this month, maize use is lowered by 4.6 million tonnes (0.4 percent) reflecting reduced feed use in key importers, notably Egypt and the European Union, as well as in the United States of America following a downgrade to harvest prospects. This reduction in maize use is matched in magnitude by combined upgrades to the utilization of barley, sorghum and wheat, again, mainly for use in animal feed rations. World rice utilization is forecast at 559.1 million tonnes in 2026/27, essentially unchanged from September and up 0.7 percent year-on-year due to an expansion in food uses.
The forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2027 is raised by 2.8 million tonnes (0.3 percent) this month to 950.0 million tonnes, leaving global inventories broadly unchanged from their opening levels. Higher wheat and, to a lesser extent, barley, stocks are expected to outweigh drawdowns in reserves of rice and sorghum. Wheat carryovers are revised upward for several major exporters, notably Australia, reflecting larger supplies, and the Russian Federation and Ukraine on reduced export expectations. Stocks of coarse grains are trimmed, largely because China is expected to draw on its supplies of sorghum for use in feed rations. As a result, the world stocks-to-use ratio for cereals at the end of seasons in 2026/27 is revised up slightly to 31.7 percent, still down from the previous season’s level of 32.0 percent. FAO has raised its forecast of world rice stocks at the close of 2026/27 marketing seasons by 1.8 million tonnes to 216.9 million tonnes, largely on upgraded stocks expectations for India, although forecasts were also raised for various other countries, most notably Japan. The revised forecast level suggests that global rice reserves could fall by 3.2 percent in 2026/27, although they could remain at their second highest level on record due to still sizeable carryovers in countries such as China, India, and Indonesia.
The forecast for world trade in cereals in 2026/27 (July/June) stands at 505.8 million tonnes, down 18.3 million tonnes (3.5 percent) from the previous season. Lower wheat and barley shipments are expected to more than outweigh increases in the trade of maize and rice. Compared with the September forecast, global cereal trade is lowered by 3.5 million tonnes (0.7 percent), reflecting downward revisions to wheat and maize exports due largely to constrained Black Sea shipping routes and insufficient alternative transport capacity which more than outweigh an upward adjustment to barley trade. Maize export prospects are lowered in the European Union due to lower supplies and in Ukraine owing to logistical constraints. By contrast, higher exportable supplies in Australia lifted the forecast for barley trade, with much of the additional volume expected to be shipped to China. In the wheat market, increased export expectations for Kazakhstan are more than offset by lower projected shipments from the Russian Federation and Ukraine. International rice trade is forecast to decline by 2.2 percent in 2026 (January-December), before recovering by 1.7 percent in 2027 to reach 61.2 million tonnes. Import demand is seen reviving in most areas in 2027, but still ample local supplies could lower 2027 purchases by the Asian Far East for the third successive year.
Summary Tables
