Component 1: Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture
Climate, Energy and Tenure Division (NRC) of FAO and local partners in the countries are responsible for Component 1.
The first component involves the generation of spatially downscaled climate change scenarios and a robust assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture using FAO's new tool called Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change (MOSAICC). MOSAICC is an integrated package of models for assessing the impacts of climate change on agriculture, including the variations in crop yields and their effects on national economies.
Component 1 uses three modules of MOSAICC and a newly developed economic model.
MOSAICC with Provincial Agricultural Market (PAM) Model
The Climate component (a MOSAICC module) facilitates the preparation of statistically downscaled climate data using an adaptation of a portal developed by the EU ENSEMBLES project.
The Hydrology component (a MOSAICC module) estimates water resources under future climate conditions and uses STREAM, a grid-based precipitation-runoff model, to simulate the discharge rate in large catchment areas.
The Crops component (a MOSAICC module) simulates crop yields under future climate change and technological progress scenarios. It uses WABAL (crop specific water balance model), the industrial version of FAO's AgroMetShell.
The Economy component makes use of a newly developed Provincial Agricultural Market (PAM) Model to evaluate the economic impacts of future crop yields and water resources projections.