The Northeast Atlantic states have agreed on pelagic quotas for 2021, with increases for herring and blue whiting and a reduction for mackerel, as recommended by International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). However, the final quotas agreed by the countries tend to be larger than what is recommended by ICES.

Northeast Atlantic coastal states (Norway, European Union, Faroe Islands, Iceland, Russian Federation and United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland) in October agreed to follow the advice of the ICES on setting the quotas for Atlantic mackerel, Norwegian spring-spawning (NSS) herring and blue whiting. However, the coastal states will set their quotas unilaterally within this advisory framework, and usually this adds up to a larger total quota than what ICES recommends.

The Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) has announced that it withdraws the certification of the Atlanto-Scandic herring and blue whiting fisheries. This is likely to have an effect on prices. Unlike the European mackerel fishery, which lost its MSC certification in 2019, the herring sector includes some smaller, alternative fisheries, such as the North Sea herring fishery, which still has MSC certification.
While prices for Atlanto-Scandic herring are likely to decline with the loss of MSC certification, prices for North Sea herring are likely to rise as environment conscious consumers will want to buy this fish rather than the non-MSC certified fish. However, observers warn not to expect price differences to be very significant. When mackerel lost its certification, retail and consumer reactions were rather moderate. Demand for mackerel does not appear to have been much affected by COVID-19.

In spite of the COVID-19 pandemic, 2020 was a very good year for the Norwegian pelagic industry.
Sales through Norges Sildesalgslag (Norwegian Fishermen's Sales organisation for Pelagic Fish) topped NOK 10 billion (about USD 1.15 billion), which accounts for about 1 percent of total Norwegian seafood exports. Still, the pelagic industry is a very important part of (but went into effect 1 January 2021) Norwegian fisheries on the whole. The industry had larger quotas for mackerel and sandeel, obtained good prices for herring and higher prices for fish meal and oil, all of which contributed to the good result.

Mackerel

In mid-October 2020, the Norwegian mackerel fleet reported good catches. In week 41 alone, 52 400 tonnes of mackerel were sold through the sales organization Norges Sildesalgslag. The large catches put extra pressure on the land-based processing facilities, but given that the northern region was not seriously affected by COVID-19, the factories had the manpower to handle the high volumes landed.

Norway’s exports of whole frozen mackerel increased by 28.6 percent during the first nine months of 2020, to 133 205 tonnes. The largest gains were recorded for shipments to Japan (+23.6 percent), and “Other countries” (+51.4 percent). The two largest markets, China and the Republic of Korea, bought less frozen mackerel from Norway during this period.

China’s imports of whole frozen mackerel during the first nine months of 2020 amounted to 96 763 tonnes, just slightly (+1.6 percent) above imports during the same period in 2019. But there were major shifts among the suppliers. The largest supplier, Norway, experienced a drop of 17.3 percent to 30 211 tonnes, while the Russian Federation increased by 70.7 percent to 19 743 tonnes, and the Republic of Korea increased shipments from 1 420 tonnes during the first nine months of 2019 to 13 010 tonnes during the same period in 2020.

Imports of Atka mackerel from the Republic of Korea have increased significantly during the past year. During the first eleven months of 2020, imports amounted to 11 374 tonnes, up 54 percent from the 7 377 tonnes imported during the same period in 2019. As much as 85 percent of this total came from the Russian Federation, with the rest originating from the United States of America. Prices were lower, however. Atka mackerel from the Russian Federation was on average USD 2.24 per kg, while fish from the United States of America was USD 2.20 per kg.

Herring

The US federal government has announced plans to require the herring fleet to participate in an industry-funded monitoring programme, which will collect data from individual vessels that will help manage the fishery. The programme is intended to start in April 2021 and will be headed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

By the first week of December 2020, the Norwegian herring fishery was coming to an end. At that time, about 400 000 tonnes out of the total Norwegian quota of 432 666 tonnes had been landed.

Norwegian exports of round frozen herring during the first nine months of 2020 declined by 16 percent to 82 539 tonnes. However, prices were up by 14.4 percent to NOK 8.08 per kg compared to the same period in 2019. The largest market was Egypt, which imported 25 700 tonnes and accounted for 31 percent of the total. Lithuania imported 28.5 less than at 12 275 tonnes, while the Netherlands increased imports from Norway to 12 200 tonnes during the first nine months of 2020, compared to 11 271 tonnes during the same period in 2019.

Russian exports of whole frozen herring increased slightly (by 2.6 percent) during the first nine months of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019, to 116 963 tonnes. China, which accounted for 77 percent of Russian exports of this product, increased its imports from the Russian Federation by over 31 percent to almost 90 000 tonnes. The second largest market, the Republic of Korea, saw a 22 percent decline, though.

Germany’s imports of prepared or preserved herring rose by 11. 9 percent during this period, to 34 946 tonnes. Poland was by far the largest supplier and accounted for as much as 77.7 percent of German imports, which in total increased by 18.3 percent to 27 144 tonnes.

Prices for Northeast Atlantic herring are likely to decline in 2021. Recently, these prices hit their highest level since 2016. The new quota advice by ICES will lead to larger quantities being harvested, and this in itself is expected to contribute to pressure on prices.

Capelin

The Icelandic capelin fishery has been in trouble for several years. For the 2020 – 2021 season ICES recommended a quota of 169 520 tonnes. However, this was dependent on the results of a survey undertaken in early 2020, but these were poor, and no quota was decided. For the 2021 – 2022 season, which runs from July 2021 to March 2022, ICES has recommended a total allowable catch (TAC) of 400 000 tonnes, again dependent on a positive survey in January 2021.

The lack of capelin roe has led to increasing demand for herring roe, and this in turn has pushed prices for roe up. Prices for herring roe may weaken again if Iceland gets a large capelin quota for 2021. In 2018, Norway exported 1 330 tonnes of herring roe. In 2019, this had grown to 3 797 tonnes, and in January to November 2020 exports had grown to 5 300 tonnes. In addition, the price for herring roe has risen even more, rising more than 100 percent over the past two years. During the first nine months of 2020, the export value increased by 142 percent.

Anchovy/Sardines

During the first anchovy season in Peru, 2.37 million tonnes were landed in the north-central zone.
This was 21.7 percent more than during the first season of 2019.

Peru in November 2020 announced the quota for the second anchovy season, which started on 12 November. The quota was set at 2.78 million tonnes, just 10 000 tonnes lower than the second season in 2019, but 38 percent more than the second season in 2018.

EU imports of frozen sardines from Morocco declined by some 11 percent to 29 795 tonnes during
the first ten months of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019. Prices remain flat.

EU imports of preserved sardines also declined during this period, down 13 percent to 23 497 tonnes.
Prices increased marginally by 2 percent.

Outlook

The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland left the European Union on 1 January 2020, however, the effect of this were felt only after start of 2021. Thus the fisheries sector entered into a period of transition and uncertainty. A last-minute agreement was achieved, however some observers noted that renewed “mackerel wars” could break out as a result.

There will be a little less Atlantic mackerel on the market in 2021, as ICES has recommended an 8 percent TAC reduction to 852 284 tonnes. For herring, ICES recommended 651 033 tonnes for 2021, which is 24 percent higher than what they recommended for 2020. However, the final country quotas usually end up higher than these recommendations. Herring prices may weaken as quotas for 2021 have been increased.

Prices for mackerel are expected to remain at present levels or decline slightly.