Global fish production in 2015 is estimated to have increased by 2.6%, with the aquaculture sector continuing to drive supply growth. As of 2014, more than half of the fish we consume is farmed rather than wild caught, and this proportion can be expected to increase steadily in the future. In terms of overall fish prices, the FAO fish price index fell significantly in 2015, as several key traded species saw price declines and weakening demand, especially for aquaculture species. As a result, total trade value for 2015 is forecasted to fall by some 9-10%. Strong USD gains, which translates into lower USD prices for species traded in other currencies, also contributed to the value decline.

Economic trends and exchange rate developments were key in shaping global seafood markets in 2015, with the traditional large markets such as the USA leading the way as developing markets faltered after long periods of strong seafood market growth. China has entered a period of serious uncertainty, Russian seafood consumption is suffering from the effects of its continuing trade embargo on fish from certain countries and the Brazilian economy shrunk in 2015. In euro, EU imports (including intra-EU trade) grew marginally in 2015, and this was similar for Japanese imports in yen.

Prices of wild species diverged significantly from those of farmed seafood in 2015, as measured by the FAO fish price index focusing on the major traded species. High-volume wild whitefish species such as Alaska pollock, cod and hake exhibited strong upward price trends in 2015, while other wild species such as scallops and cephalopods also saw good price rises. Yet there were some exceptions in the capture sector. In particular, low raw material prices for tuna – based on good catches and low fuel costs – continued in 2015 despite somewhat of a recovery in the latter half of the year. Meanwhile, plentiful supply of farmed shrimp saw prices fall for exporters in the important US market while the salmon price development was characterized by steep declines in Chile and record high levels in Norway.

For the major producing countries, results in 2015 were mixed. Norway, Europe's major producer, posted record export values in 2015 for both cod and salmon, while China, the world's largest exporter and processor, saw export volumes drop due to a slowdown in the processing sector. In Thailand, lower tuna and shrimp prices pushed export values significantly down in 2015, with other large shrimp supplying countries seeing similar effects. In South America, previous fears that the second anchoveta season would be cancelled due to a strong El Niño phenomenon were proven to be unfounded and the fleet has reported strong catches since mid-November 2015. This has relieved some pressure on fishmeal prices for the time being, but the long-term upward trend will continue to push up feed costs for aquaculture producers and drive them towards alternative ingredients.

The sustainability, quality and safety of the fish we eat is becoming ever more important in the minds of the world's seafood consumers, evidenced by the powerful effect on demand and the negative media coverage of these issues. The US Food and Drug Administration's recent approval of genetically modified salmon for human consumption has stimulated much public debate, with many retailers hesitant to sell the product due to potential consumer backlash.

The broad outlook for the global seafood markets is somewhat uncertain, as wider economic concerns in many key consuming countries will potentially depress consumer demand. Political and social instability in Europe in the wake of terrorist attacks and the migrant crisis represents a further risk factor, while the Russian embargo will continue to reshape global markets as long as it is enforced. For many producers, however, a strong US dollar and a positive outlook for the important US market helps to support a more favourable view of 2016.