The report analyses the market situation over the year 2016 and the first quarter 2017.

From March–December 2016, frozen skipjack prices for delivery to Thailand increased by 15-20 percent compared with the same period in 2015. The price continued to be high through early 2017. 

For canned tuna, export and consumer prices did not increase much in 2016. Despite these relatively stagnant prices, import demand for processed tuna failed to recover during 2016 with demand slow in the traditional western markets. In the non-canned tuna market, which targets a different segment of consumers, trade remained stable.

Supply

During 2016, prices of frozen tuna for canning persisted at higher levels than in 2015. Indeed, the average import price of skipjack in Bangkok was nearly 21 percent higher in 2016, at an average of US$1 430 per tonne compared with US$1 100 per tonne in 2015. These higher prices did not seem to deter import volumes growing, with frozen tuna raw material import into Thailand increasing by 8 percent to total 700 000 tonnes in 2016. Annual imports of raw frozen tuna into Spain during 2016 were also higher, totaling 162 600 tonnes, demonstrating 15 percent growth. Spanish canners also imported an additional 66 100 tonnes of cooked loins for reprocessing. In China, raw material imports remained stable at 85 000 tonnes in 2016; 80 percent of these were frozen skipjack. 

This rising price trend for frozen skipjack continued during the first quarter of 2017. During this time, the frozen skipjack price was recorded at US$1 676 per tonne for delivery to Bangkok; nearly 40 percent higher than the same period a year ago. Prices in the Bangkok market began declining in mid-March.

Tuna catches in the Eastern Pacific have been good in March. Canneries in Ecuador are holding healthy inventories of raw material. Taking advantage of the zero-duty status that went into effect in January 2017, Spanish canneries are buying more pre-cooked loins from Ecuador.  

In the Western and Central Pacific, fishing has been moderate. Thai canneries are holding more than adequate frozen inventories possibly due to high imports in 2016 and slow demand for finished goods from export markets. Subsequently, skipjack prices have started to weaken. In the Indian Ocean, fishing has also been reported to be moderate with canneries there noting healthy stocks of material.

The fish aggregating device (FAD) closure in the Atlantic Ocean ended on 28 February 2016, however fishing continues to be poor in that region. Raw tuna stocks are low with some canneries possibly having to stop operations until fishing improves. Poor fishing has also led to skipjack and yellowfin prices to rise. Import prices for cooked, double-cleaned yellowfin loins have increased as the zero-duty quota for Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines has ended.

Fresh and frozen tuna market (non-canned)

USA

For 2016, US imports of non-canned tuna once again confirm the positive demand trend. Imports of fresh and frozen whole tuna and loins reached 60 000 tonnes (+11 %), with imports of whole/dressed air-flown tuna and frozen fillet/loins totaling 24 000 tonnes and 32 300 tonnes respectively. The average import price of the popular and shelf-stable frozen tuna loins was between US$11.00–12.00 per kilogram.   

Since 2014, the USA has remained the world’s leading importer of fresh air-flown tuna in volume; Japan holds the second position.            

Japan

Conservative demand for high-priced tuna persisted in 2016, resulting in a 5 % decline of air-flown tuna imports to total only 6 100 tonnes compared with 4 800 tonnes in 2015. However, fresh bluefin tuna imports increased by 27 % in 2016, largely consisting of farmed fish from Mexico (4 200 tonnes), which is a cheaper product. High-priced wild-caught jumbo bluefin made up 600 tonnes of the total imports of fresh bluefin, supplied by Canada and the USA.

The Japanese market maintained its preference for frozen sashimi grade tuna in 2016, largely due to its longer shelf life, with imports of frozen tuna increasing by 6.5 % year-on-year. Frozen loin imports also increased marginally to total 41 800 tonnes against 41 400 tonnes in 2015. The frozen loin total consisted of 25 400 tonnes of redmeat quality bigeye and yellowfin and 15 000 tonnes of bluefin.

Canned tuna market

Thailand, Ecuador and Spain were the top three exporters of processed and canned tuna in 2016.

In Asia, Thailand and the Philippines reported 0.3 % and 2 % declines in exports respectively. China reported a 7 % rise in exports, with increased supplies of cooked loins to Spain and Portugal.

Ecuador, the world’s second largest exporter of canned tuna, demonstrated a 2.4 % rise in cooked loins and canned tuna exports during 2016 against 2015. However, total canned/processed tuna exports to its largest market, Spain, declined by almost 5 % to total 45 600 tonnes. This decline was attributed to a 15 % fall in cooked loin supplies to this market. However, exports of cooked loin from Ecuador were higher to Italy and to Portugal at 9 200 tonnes (+72 %) and 1 800 tonnes (+29 %) respectively.

In the Indian Ocean region, exports from Mauritius remained stagnant to total 57 600 tonnes. Increased exports of cooked loins were reported to Italy and Portugal. Exports of canned tuna to its main market, the UK, suffered a 13.4 % drop compared with 2015, possibly due to more than adequate local stocks.

Spain demonstrated export growth of 2.4 % in 2016 over 2015. The leading markets were Italy, France, Portugal, the UK, the Netherlands and Germany. Besides selling high-value processed tuna, Spain also re-exported cooked loins to tuna canneries in Portugal, Italy and France.

The Spanish canned/processed tuna sector has been growing from 2014–2016,  generally selling to high-value processed tuna markets in the EU. However, outside of the EU market, exports have also increased.  

In general, import curves for canned tuna in most of the traditional developed markets were negative in 2016, even though the average import price did not increase much. Reduced consumer demand for conventional canned tuna and poor sales resulted in inventory buildups in these markets.

USA

Overall, imports of prepared tuna (cooked loins, cans and pouches) declined by 6 % in 2016 compared with 2015 to total 190 700 tonnes, indicating weaker consumer  demand despite average import prices being 1.3 % lower. Overall demand for lightmeat products (skipjack and yellowfin) remained weak during 2016.  

In contrast, imports of whitemeat albacore (canned and pouched) increased by 20 %, despite the fact that the average import price was about US$1–2per kg higher than skipjack products.

In Canada, there was a 3 % decline in canned tuna imports due to falling supply from major supplier Thailand (-6.4 %) compared with 2015. Imports increased year-on-year by 33 % from the Philippines, 20 % from Italy and 9 % from Viet Nam. 

Canned tuna demand also suffered in many markets in Latin America. Imports declined in Colombia to 28 500 tonnes (-3.3 %), in Chile to 15 400 tonnes (-20 %) and in Peru to 13 700 tonnes (-13 %).

EU

Throughout 2016, demand for canned tuna in the EU, particularly among western European markets, remained disappointing to non-EU exporters. As of November 2016, EU imports of canned tuna from extra-EU countries declined by almost 3 % compared with 2015 to total 422 900 tonnes.

Among the leading markets, the UK, Spain, France and Germany showed falling imports of canned tuna in 2016 compared with 2015.

Imports of canned tuna did increase in some of the Eastern European markets, namely the Czech Republic, (5 200 tonnes), Hungary (2 400 tonnes) and Romania (3 600 tonnes).

Asia/Pacific

Japan and Australia were the leading importers of canned tuna in the Asia/Pacific region. In 2016, the Japanese market maintained its positive demand trend with imports increasing by almost 11 % to 60 400 tonnes compared with 54 500 imported in 2015. Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia and Viet Nam were the top suppliers. About 10 % of total processed tuna imports in Japan consisted of katsuobushi products, which had a unit value of US$7.00–11.00 per kg compared with US$4.8 per kg for canned tuna. The leading suppliers of katsuobushi were the Philippines, Indonesia, Viet Nam, China and Maldives.

Australia is considered a market for higher-value tuna. However, the continuing weakening of the Australian currency against the US dollar has limited canned tuna imports into this market, with this declining import trend starting in 2014. 2016 imports fell by 5.4 % against 2015 to total 44 900 tonnes. Imports increased into New Zealand (5 300 tonnes) by 5 %.

In East Asia, demand for canned tuna improved in Hong Kong SAR and Singapore but weakened in Malaysia and China (Mainland and Taiwan Province of China). 

Import trends in the emerging but important markets in the Middle East and West Africa were mixed during 2016, which has been mirrored in Thai canned tuna exports to these markets. Canned tuna imports from Thailand to Egypt in 2016 were estimated to total 75 000 tonnes, which is 3 000–5 000 tonnes higher than in 2015. Thai exports to Libya also increased marginally at 37 600 tonnes.  Exports to Saudi Arabia declined by 18 % to total 22 900 tonnes but increased to the United Arab Emirates at 11 900 tonnes (+7 %) and Syria by almost 40 % (60 100 tonnes). In West Africa, Thai exports increased to Algeria (+22 %) and to Morocco (+10 %) but declined to Tunisia (-26 %). 

The report analyses the market situation over the year 2016 and the first quarter 2017.