KORE - Knowledge Sharing Platform on Resilience

Food Chain Crisis: Early Warning Bulletin | October - December 2018


In this bulletin:  

Thirty-four plant and forest pests and diseases and animal and aquatic diseases were forecasted by FAO experts for the period October-December 2018. A total of 281 forecasts were conducted in 116 countries. 

Food Chain Crisis (FCC) threats are expected to occur in Africa, the Americas, Asia, Europe, and Oceania where they can persist within a country, spread to neighbouring countries, remain latent, or re-emerge or amplify. 

In relation to food security, and according to the last “Crop prospects and food situation” report (July to September 2018), FAO estimates that, globally, 39 countries (31 in Africa, seven in Asia, and one in Americas) are in need of external assistance for food. Persisting conflicts continue to be the dominant factor driving high levels of severe food insecurity. Weather shocks have also adversely affected food availability and access. FCC threats can compound food insecurity in fragile countries stricken by weather shocks and conflicts. 



  • Africa: Fall armyworm (FAW) continues to be of high concern, due to its impact on maize. In addition to maize, the pest has been detected on an increasing number of other crops like sorghum and sugarcane and therefore it can affect the food security and livelihoods of many people. During this forecast period (October to December 2018), FAW spread will continue mainly in maize unless appropriate actions are taken.
  • Asia: In China, the first African swine fever (ASF) outbreak was reported in August 2018 and by the end of September 2018, ASF outbreaks were spreading in eight provinces: Anhui, Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Henan, Liaoning and Zhejiang. China is considered the home for half of global pig population, and then ASF entry could result in devastating consequences for animal health, livelihood and food security. For this forecast period (October to December 2018), ASF is likely to spread further in China and it is considered a risk to the Eastern and Southeastern Asia countries. 
  • Europe: In September, African swine fever (ASF) was reported for the first time in Western Europe, in a wild boar in Luxembourg. The most relevant factor in ASF spread in this country is the high density of infected wild boar. This aspect will expose Luxembourg and the neighbouring countries to a high risk of ASF spread during the forecast period.
No comments

Please join or sign in the KORE community