More than a 50 percent probability of agricultural drought is projected for some crop and pasture areas in the Sahel, Southern Africa, South and Southeast Asia, Central America and the Caribbean as a new El Niño phase develops in 2026. FAO experts mapped these hotspots using 41 years of satellite observations from the Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS), examining where strong and very strong El Niño Southern Oscillation events have historically been associated with severe agricultural drought. The analysis also highlights how drought exposure can compound existing food insecurity, conflict and economic pressures.

The maps provide information at scales as fine as one square kilometre, helping identify where anticipatory measures could be prioritized. Potential actions include adjusting planting dates, using drought-tolerant or short-cycle crops, storing livestock fodder, securing water supplies and directing cash, irrigation assistance and agricultural inputs towards exposed communities. FAO and the World Food Programme have also launched a USD 202 million anticipatory action appeal intended to protect 8.8 million people in 22 high-risk countries.

Experience from earlier El Niño events illustrates the potential value of acting before losses occur. Ahead of the 2023–24 event, nearly USD 31 million supported more than two million people across seven Southern African countries through seeds, livestock assistance and improved early warning. The analysis emphasizes the importance of connecting detailed risk information with meteorological services, agriculture ministries and extension networks so that warnings can inform timely decisions by farmers and pastoralists.