Following the detection of foot-and-mouth disease serotype SAT2 (FMD SAT2) in West Eurasia and the Near East in February 2023, a qualitative risk assessment was conducted. Serotype SAT2 usually circulates only in Africa, and so most animals in the region are fully susceptible to infection by this virus. The likelihood of spread of the FMD SAT2 to unaffected countries via key risk pathways and the potential consequences of the FMD SAT2 incursion in the region were described and assessed.

Plausible pathways for the introduction of FMD SAT2 were identified for most countries. Informal movements of live animals and common grazing are the pathways of greatest concern because direct live animal contact is a very effective mode of FMD transmission, especially in the absence of sanitary measures. The large increase of animal movements associated with festivals such as Eid al-Adha, as well as seasonal grazing movements, increase the probability of FMD spread. An incursion of FMD SAT2 would result in a substantial negative impact, with the production losses and cost of control measures estimated at USD 3.6–6.5 billion, depending on the extent of spread within the region. Outbreaks of FMD also have a negative impact on food and nutrition security, economy, labour markets, and the livelihoods of most vulnerable people.

To mitigate the risks of FMD SAT2, all countries should have an emergency response plan for FMD that is realistic for the country and supported with adequate resources for implementation. A comprehensive list of preventive measures, including strengthened biosecurity and vaccination, is available in this document.