Reference Date: 15-March-2024

Increasing plantings of 2024 minor crops due to improved availability of locally‑produced fertilizers

The 2024 minor paddy crop, which accounts for about one‑third of the annual production, is currently at flowering and grain‑filling stages and satellite imagery indicates favourable crop conditions (green areas in NDVI map). Planted area is estimated to have increased for the first time since 2019, despite remaining at a below‑average level. The year‑on‑year increase is due to the increased availability of agricultural inputs, following the start of domestic production of fertilizers in 2023. Planting operations of the 2024 main paddy will start in April 2024 and average rainfall amounts are forecast between April and June, likely providing conducive conditions for planting and crop emergence.

Harvesting of the 2024 minor maize crop has started in early March 2024 and production is preliminarily forecast to increase year‑on‑year, reflecting favourable weather conditions and improved availability of fertilizers.

Well below‑average cereal production in 2023

Cereal production in 2023 is estimated at 290 000 tonnes, nearly 50 percent below the five‑year average due to lack of agricultural inputs and limited availability of agricultural credit as well as farmer’s low access to credit.

Cereal import requirements forecast at low levels in 2023/24 marketing year

Cereal import requirements in the 2023/24 marketing year (July/June) are anticipated at a below‑average level of 1.2 million tonnes, reflecting the contraction of local demand due to the declining size of the population (since 2019) as well as the reduced needs for livestock feed. Cereal imports in the 2022/23 marketing year were also well below average, as the country’s capacity to import was curtailed by low levels of foreign exchange reserves.

Food inflation limits access to food for vulnerable households

High food prices continue to erode the purchasing power of vulnerable households, limiting their access to food. Inflation started to soar in 2021, as the unification of the dual exchange rates in January 2021 resulted in the devaluation of the country’s currency by 96 percent. Prices of essential items, including staple food, continued to increase, albeit at a lesser extent, in 2022 and 2023, even after the reinstitution of the dual exchange rate system. As of January 2024, annual inflation rates of food items were officially estimated at 37.2 percent, down from about 70 percent a year before. As a measure to reduce the fiscal deficit, the government announced the intention to discontinue fuel subsidies from February 2024. However, the implementation of this measure, which would have resulted in a fivefold increase of gasoline and diesel prices, has been delayed until further notice.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .