Reference Date: 22-April-2026

Second consecutive above-average cereal harvest forecast in 2026

Harvesting of the 2026 maize crop, the primary cereal produced in the country, started in April in eastern areas and the aggregate output (including both commercial and subsistence sectors) is forecast at an above-average level of 17.1 million tonnes. Although slightly below the outturn in 2025, this level would still represent the country’s third largest maize harvest on record.

These favourable production prospects are supported by generally conducive weather conditions since the start of the season in November 2025, with near-average rainfall amounts across the main central cereal-producing regions. Although the temporal distribution of rains has been uneven in several areas, notably marked by an extended dry spell in January followed by heavy downpours in February, maize yields are still expected to remain above average in 2026.

The second major cereal crop, wheat, is grown during the winter months, with planting expected to be completed in June. Two main factors are likely to influence the wheat plantings in 2026 and may result in a modest scale-back in the extent of the planted area compared to the previous year and the five-year average. First, weather forecasts indicate an increased probability of below-average cumulative rainfall amounts during the key crop development phase (July-August) in the Western Cape province – accounting for about half of the national output – coupled with forecasts of above-average temperatures. Second, while wheat prices have remained broadly stable, prices of some inputs have increased, particularly for fuel and fertilisers that constitute a significant share of production costs, compressing profit margins and may discourage farmers from expanding the area planted.

Overall, total cereal production in 2026 is forecast at an above-average level of approximately 19.5 million.

Total maize exports expected to decline in 2025/26

Total maize exports in the 2025/26 marketing year (May/April) are forecast at a below-average level of approximately 2 million tonnes. These prospects are driven by reduced shipments of yellow maize to Asia, amid ample global supplies that have contributed to weakening demand for South African maize. In addition, exports of white maize to neighbouring countries have declined, as strong production upturns in 2025 and anticipated good outturns in 2026 have reduced import requirements in the subregion. Overall, softer external demand, rather than supply constraints, is the primary factor behind the reduced export prospects in 2025/26.

Abundant supply drives down maize prices

Since reaching record highs in January 2025, wholesale prices of yellow and white maize have generally trended downward and by March 2026 were about 30 and 40 percent, respectively, lower year on year and traded near export parity levels.

The decline is primarily driven by supply pressure following a well above-average harvest in 2025 and expectations of a similarly large crop in 2026. In addition, reduced export demand has further eased price pressures, while expectations of an increase in stock levels are likely to reinforce downward pressure on prices. However, a recent weakening of the national currency in March, linked to heightened global economic uncertainty associated with the conflict in the Middle East, poses a potential near-term upside risk to prices, channelled through rising export parity prices.

As for wheat, after generally stable trends since November 2025, wholesale prices increased by about 6 percent month-on-month in March, largely reflecting rising international quotations, given the country’s status as a net importer.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .