Strenghtening Afghanistan Institutions' capacity for the Assessment of Agriculture Production and Scenario Development

Impact scenarios

Trends in water availability, crop yields, land degradation, agriculture economy and current and future potential food insecurity risk will be assessed, related particularly to domestic yields.

The suite of available crop models of FAO-AEZ portal will be calibrated and validated for Afghanistan and LRIMS will be used to assess impacts.

Assessments will also focus on impact scenarios of water availability for all major agro-ecological production zones, climate change trends and production risks, to provide analysis of vulnerabilities, impacts and robust adaptation strategies for the country. This will develop baseline poverty and food insecurity maps from geospatial information obtained through government and socio-ecological data sets and indicators derived from earth observation.

The selection of scenarios will be developed through stakeholder workshops to generate contrasting options that can inform the agriculture adaptation strategies. These workshops will be used to generate plausible futures within the study areas and inform the multi-criteria factor weightings with the aim of testing options for adaptation and intervention. These will identify the local polices and plans for which adaptation strategies will be developed, and the runs of the scenarios will develop outputs to support the integration of the adaptation options into the strategies and policy. This stage will also undertake a ten- year review to assess the efficiency, effectiveness, impact, relevance and sustainability of past actions of EU agriculture projects and activities in Afghanistan for the period from 2004 to 2016.

Recent trends in policy and actions of the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock in sustainable agriculture will be assessed and evaluated, highlighting the main actions and results achieved. Dissemination and communication materials will be produced to highlight outcomes of the interventions.