Mapping deforestation risk with the new AIM4Forests’ Deforisk solution

In the efforts to halt deforestation, understanding where the greatest risks lie is crucial. According to the State of the World’s Forest 2024 report, the world has seen a significant loss of forests over the past few decades. Between 1990 and 2020, approximately 420 million hectares of forests were lost, with deforestation continuing at an alarming rate of 10 million hectares per year.  

AIM4Forests with the financial support of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development (CIRAD) has jointly developed Deforisk (version 1.0), a powerful and user-friendly plugin that maps deforestation risk for any area of interest. This free solution can offer valuable insights to help protect forests, supporting governments and organizations to mitigate deforestation in high-risk zones and facilitating proactive measures. Additionally, Deforisk supports carbon finance by streamlining carbon accounting and allocating activity data to local projects or subnational programs.  

How Deforisk works? 

Deforisk predicts deforestation risk by using various models and data from different times to forecast risks for future dates. Normally, this takes a lot of time if done one after the other. To speed things up, Deforisk uses the QGIS task manager, which runs these tasks simultaneously, saving time and boosting productivity.  

With Deforisk, users can access multiple deforestation risk modeling algorithms, including CAR, GLM, Random Forest, and Moving Window. These algorithms offer unique approaches to predicting deforestation. Users can input different variables and datasets to create various risk maps and compare them to choose the best one based on statistical analysis. 

Users can input their own forest datasets or use globally recognized datasets like Global Forest Change and Tropical Moist Forests. This flexibility ensures that Deforisk adapts to various data sources and scales, making it a versatile solution for different contexts and regions. It also processes large datasets by dividing raster data into small blocks, allowing it to handle extensive data without overloading your system.  

Deforisk does not just create maps but also provides actionable insights. It helps identify high-risk areas so that conservation efforts can be prioritized, resources allocated more effectively, and targeted actions implemented. Additionally, these risk maps are invaluable for estimating the emission reduction impact of forest conservation projects within the VCS Jurisdictional and Nested REDD+ Framework, helping combat climate change and preserving biodiversity. 

_{Process of obtaining variables for Ecuador. See more at https://deforisk-qgis-plugin.org/get_started.html} 

Latin America pioneers Deforisk assessment 

The Deforisk solution was recently tested during the Workshop on Modeling Deforestation Risk for Multi-Scale Integration of Carbon Accounting, held in Santa Marta, Colombia (15-19 July). Supported by AIM4Forests and the UN-REDD Programme, this workshop allowed FAO to demonstrate how Deforisk can aid in creating detailed deforestation risk maps. The workshop demonstrated the potential of the new solution for Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Uses (AFOLU) mitigation efforts, providing essential support for managing and mitigating deforestation risks.  

The workshop provided technical training to Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) specialists from several Latin American countries, including Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico, and Peru. Most participants, being experts in remote sensing, spatial modeling, and carbon accounting within the forestry sector, were trained to use Deforisk to develop deforestation risk maps.  

During interactive sessions, attendees produced various deforestation risk maps for small areas, subnational regions, and entire countries using different Deforisk models. Each country presented their progress in aligning their accounting frameworks and advances in deforestation risk modeling. The workshop also featured a comparison of existing deforestation risk maps from the participating countries and a deep dive into the specific features and functionalities of Deforisk. 

Latin American participants interacting with Deforisk during the workshop in Colombia. 

Testimonials from Latin America 

Beatriz Villanueva, Dirección de Cambio Climático y Gestión del Riesgo de Ministerio del Ambiente, Colombia: “Deforisk is an excellent solution for generating deforestation risk maps with much greater precision and clarity, enabling informed decision-making in the fight against deforestation and degradation “ 

Antonio Martinez, Ministério do Meio Ambiente e Mudança do Clima, Brazil: “I believe that the technical solution will be very useful to help us in the regulatory process of incorporating projects into the national strategy for REDD in Brazil”  

Rosa Sunum, Instituto Nacional de Bosques (INAB), Guatemala: “Currently in Guatemala, we do not have a soilution like this. It has potential to help us adjust our national and international commitments and identify strategic areas for implementing or strengthening policies.”    

Freddy Argotty, Profonampe, Perú: “In the process that Peru is carrying out, the development of risk maps is fundamental given that part of the processes that are being directed are concentrated in the nesting process where the risk maps are fundamental in the definition of its baseline for REDD projects.”   

Deforisk is a key solution for those dedicated to halting deforestation. With its robust models, efficient processing capabilities, and cross-platform compatibility, it is indispensable for both small local projects and large-scale national programs. Deforisk empowers countries with the insights necessary to make a significant impact on forest conservation.  

_{Freddy Argotty from Profonampe, Perú, sharing country experiences during the workshop}

The way forward 

This workshop provided participants the opportunity to test Deforisk and evaluate its suitability for their needs and expectations. Feedback gathered during the workshop will be used to enhance Deforisk over the coming months. The next phase involves sharing an updated version with technical specialists in Asia and incorporating it into the knowledge exchange activities of AIM4Forests and the UN-REDD Programme.