Compounding shocks and climate risks

For many rural households in Mozambique, the 2026 harvest offered little relief. Early-year climate extremes, including severe floods and Cyclone Gezani, caused extensive damage to crops, livestock, and productive agricultural assets. At the same time, conflict-driven displacement in northern regions and persistently high food and transport prices have eroded household purchasing power and reduced coping capacity. Now, as food stocks deplete and the lean season approaches, a new climatic threat is emerging: a strong El Niño episode.

The latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis underscores an already deteriorated situation compared to last year, with 1.19 million people facing a food security crisis across 46 districts, including 81 000 individuals in emergency conditions, highlighting a worsening food security and nutrition landscape across shock-affected areas. This situation is expected to deteriorate during the lean season, from October 2026 to March 2027. The number of people facing crisis or worse conditions is projected to reach 1.84 million, representing 22 percent of the analyzed population. Critically, populations in emergency conditions are expected to more than triple to 254 000.

Alongside food deficits, acute malnutrition remains a critical concern, driven by a complex interplay of inadequate food consumption, limited access to clean water and sanitation, and a high disease burden. Addressing these vulnerabilities is paramount to protecting the health and well-being of at-risk populations. The anticipated El Niño phenomenon threatens to exacerbate these existing vulnerabilities. Forecasts indicate below-average and irregular rainfall across southern and central Mozambique, which is expected to reduce crop yields, deplete pastures and water resources, and limit agricultural labour opportunities. Additionally, early 2027 coincides with a period known for a high likelihood of cyclones, posing further threats to already vulnerable agrifood systems and rural communities.

Recognizing the critical window to protect agrifood systems, Mozambique has activated anticipatory action protocols across 8 provinces and 28 districts. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), in collaboration with the World Food Programme (WFP), is actively supporting government-led efforts to mitigate these forecast impacts.

Key interventions focus on building resilience and protecting livelihoods before the shock materializes. These include disseminating tailored early warning information, pre-positioning drought-tolerant seeds and agricultural inputs, promoting climate-smart production, protecting livestock assets, and rehabilitating essential water infrastructure. By scaling up anticipatory action, FAO and its partners aim to safeguard agricultural production, protect rural livelihoods, and prevent a further deterioration of acute food insecurity.