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Issue paper


National-level models to support the use of evidence in agrifood systems policy

In the context of global challenges such as climate change, conflict and environmental crises, all of which are exacerbating poverty and hunger around the world, there is a need for urgent action informed by the best available science and evidence. This background paper to the guidance that FAO is developing on strengthening science–policy interfaces at the national level sets out to provide an overview of existing models and activities used for developing and operating science–policy systems and supporting the use of evidence, to transform global agrifood systems. Emphasis is placed on low- and middle-income countries, but examples from high-income countries [...]

Case study


Fiscal reform in Costa Rica. Price elasticities of major food categories to inform decision-making. FAO agricultural development economics working paper 23–04

In the context of fiscal reform in Costa Rica (value added tax revision), the definition of a new basic tax basket – canasta básica tributaria (CBT), incorporating nutritional criteria is underway in the country. In this study, price elasticities of major food categories were analysed using a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) model and data from the 2018 National Survey of Household Income and Expenditures – Encuesta Nacional de Ingresos y Gastos de los Hogares (ENIGH). Measuring price elasticities is essential because it allows: knowing the extent to which food demand reacts to price changes, anticipating changes in the [...]



Soils, where food begins. Proceedings of the global symposium on soils for nutrition: 26-29 July 2022

The book of proceedings of the GSOIL4N contains the papers presented during the Global Symposium on Soils for Nutrition that was held from 26 to 29 July 2022. The papers provide the latest research findings and multisectoral insights which evidenced that nutrient imbalance is a global and crosscutting threat with multifactorial drivers and effects on the agrifood systems and even on key planetary processes.

Issue paper


The impacts of COVID-19 and policy responses in rural economies. Findings from a local-economy general equilibrium modelling study

The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and government policies to limit its spread are multi-faceted and complex. Market linkages transmit these impacts through economies, from directly affected actors to others in both the urban and rural spheres. Economic contexts, including the structure of local economies, shape the transmission of impacts on rural men and women. Because of this, the pandemic, lockdowns, and mitigation policies influence outcomes in complex ways. In most cases, the magnitudes and even the signs of impacts cannot be determined ex ante. In this study, we use multiple local economy-wide impact evaluation (LEWIE) models to estimate the [...]



Mapping of territorial markets – Methodology and guidelines for participatory data collection. Methodology and guidelines for participatory data collection

Malnutrition in all its forms (undernutrition, micronutrient deficiency, overweight and obesity) is a major global challenge, and improving nutrition is a key priority for global development, as recognized in the UN Decade of Action on Nutrition (2016–2025) and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In this context, ensuring availability, physical accessibility and affordability of healthy and nutritious food at territorial level is crucial to ensure the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In many developing countries, territorial markets are key retail outlets for fruits and vegetables, but also for animal source foods and staple foods. Besides the relevance, data concerning [...]

Case study


Public expenditure analysis for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the agricultural sector – A case study of Uganda. FAO Agricultural Development Economics Working Paper 21-06

This paper presents a methodology for public expenditure review and analysis for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the agricultural sector. It outlines the basic methodological concepts, including the classification of public expenditures in the context of their links to climate change adaptation and mitigation. It also illustrates how such analysis can usefully contribute to policy decision making to better achieve the climate change adaptation and mitigation goals using the case study of Uganda. The proposed classification allows for analysing the level and the composition of public expenditures that influence adaptation capacity of the sector to climate change, and actions that [...]

Issue paper


Caractéristiques, modèles et vecteurs de la migration rurale au Sénégal

Bien que les flux migratoires en provenance des zones rurales soient un phénomène courant dans la plupart des pays en développement, nous disposons de peu d'informations sur leur dynamique et leurs déterminants. Dans ce contexte, en septembre 2017, dans le cadre du projet «Favoriser les investissements productifs pour créer des emplois agricoles et non agricoles décents pour les jeunes ruraux des zones sujettes aux migrations au Sénégal», la FAO et l'Agence nationale sénégalaise de statistique et de démographie ( ANSD) a mené une enquête auprès des ménages dans le but de générer des informations sur les phénomènes de migration en [...]



Simulating rising undernourishment during the COVID-19 pandemic economic downturn

This technical note describes the methodology and data used to obtain estimates of rising undernourishment, under three hypothetical scenarios of gross domestic product (GDP) growth reduction that could materialize based on different forecasts emerging in association with the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. It analyses optimistic, mild and pessimistic scenarios prospecting a reduction in GDP growth of, respectively, 2, 5 and 10 percentage points (p.p.). First, a GMM model over the 1995–2017 period is used to estimate elasticities of the per capita food supply and GDP growth reduction in low-and middle-income countries. Then, the simulated reduction in food supply [...]



Aglink-COSIMO modelling system

The annual FAO-OECD Outlook is the result of a partnership agreement with OECD in 2004. The medium-term Outlook provides an assessment of the prospects of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets in the coming decade. It is an instrument for the quantitative analysis and assessment of policy options and resource allocation decisions.

Data and statistics


FAO dataset on renewable water resources projections under alternative climate change patterns

The FAO Global Perspectives Studies (GPS) Team has combined data from various hydrological models that simulate water availability at the pixel level and generated projections at the country level. They created the dataset by calculating relative changes in internal and inflowing water resources by country, resulting from different climate change scenarios. Relative changes were used to re-scale reported values in FAO AQUASTAT. The dataset disseminates projections of of water availability to support foresight analyses of food and agricultural systems.    
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