In February and March 2024, prices of coarse grains followed mixed trends in countries of the Sahel and along the Gulf of Guinea. In several countries of the subregion, prices of coarse grains remained higher on a yearly basis.

In Mali, wholesale prices of both sorghum and millet increased month‑on‑month in March 2024. Wholesale prices of sorghum and millet were near or below their year-earlier levels, reflecting adequate domestic availability due to an average cereal harvest in 2023. In Burkina Faso, wholesale prices of millet remained stable or rose in March, while prices of sorghum followed mixed trends. Prices of both millet and sorghum were near or below their values of a year earlier. This mainly reflects the delivery of humanitarian assistance for internally-displaced persons and the release of cereals from the national food reserves at subsidized prices through the so-called boutiques témoins, a social protection measure adopted by the government in 2013 to improve cereal access for the most vulnerable populations, compounded by improved supplies from the 2023 cereal harvest, estimated at a slightly above-average level. In most markets in the Niger, wholesale prices of millet and sorghum increased in March. Prices of millet and sorghum were up to 20 and 25 percent, respectively, higher on a yearly basis. The lingering effects of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) sanctions, which were lifted in February 2024, kept prices above their year-earlier levels. Furthermore, reduced cereal production in 2023, strong local demand and rising fuel prices, which had a significant impact on transport costs, were factors underpinning the elevated cereal prices. In Chad, retail prices of maize and millet were stable or registered slight decreases in most markets in February, while prices of sorghum followed mixed trends. In most markets, prices of coarse grains were near or below their year-earlier values, however, in few others, prices were higher year-on-year. In cases where cereal prices were higher on a yearly basis, this was supported by the below-average cereal production in 2023, high transport costs due to rising fuel prices and reduced imports from the Sudan and Libya. Furthermore, strong local demand, amplified by the significant presence of Sudanese refugees and Chadian returnees in the country’s eastern provinces, added upward pressure on prices.

In Senegal, the national average retail price of maize registered a slight month-on-month decrease in February 2024, while the national average prices of millet and sorghum increased. The average prices of coarse grains were below their elevated year-earlier values, reflecting the increase in cereal production in 2023, estimated at an above‑average level. In Togo, retail prices of maize were stable in March, while prices of sorghum remained stable or recorded slight increases. Prices of both maize and sorghum were near their year-earlier levels. In Benin, retail prices of maize rose in February, while prices of sorghum registered declines for the third consecutive month. Prices of both maize and sorghum were near or above their year-earlier levels. In cases where cereal prices were elevated, this could be largely attributed to low supply, reflecting reduced yields in localized areas due to the adoption of a new type of fertilizer and poor rainfall distribution. In addition, cereal production was affected by reluctance from several producers and traders following last year’s poor sales due to the introduction of export levies, as well as persistent civil insecurity in northern areas. In Nigeria, wholesale prices of millet, sorghum and maize registered further increases in February and were well above their levels of a year earlier. Wholesale prices of local and imported rice rose for the third consecutive month and remained higher year-on-year. The high cereal prices were underpinned by below-average cereal production in 2023, high transport costs, depreciation of the naira and strong local demand. Furthermore, conflict-related market disruptions are a factor underpinning the high cereal prices.