From Farms to COP30: Can the world's climate plans deliver on food?

As countries submit their new climate pledges, FAO’s analysis reveals growing ambition for agrifood systems — and the critical steps still needed to turn commitments into action.

As countries finalize their next national climate commitments – known as nationally determined contributions, or NDCs – at COP30 in Belém, Brazil, the world faces a defining test: whether global action can still meet the Paris Agreement’s goals and put agrifood systems at the heart of climate action.

A FAO review of 35 third-round NDCs (known as “NDC 3.0”) submitted as of 15 September 2025 shows that agrifood systems are receiving more attention than ever before, while revealing major gaps and opportunities to turn ambition into measurable action.

Countries are sending a clear signal: agrifood systems are central to the climate solution

From forests that absorb carbon to livestock systems and croplands, that can be managed more sustainably, every country reviewed recognizes the potential of agrifood systems to drive progress on both mitigation and adaptation.

All countries include mitigation priorities within agrifood systems, identifying major opportunities to cut greenhouse gas emissions and enhance carbon storage, particularly through forests, livestock and grasslands, and crop-based systems. At the same time, most countries also highlight the need to strengthen climate resilience. Sixty-nine percent prioritize adaptation in agrifood systems, with a focus on forests, crops and fisheries.

Together, these commitments reflect a growing recognition that agrifood systems are one of the most powerful levers for climate solutions.

Agrifood systems are increasingly recognized as vulnerable to climate change, with two-thirds of countries acknowledging their exposure in the latest round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs).

More than half (fifty-one percent) cite disruptions to agricultural production and value chains, while thirty-four percent highlight growing threats to food security and nutrition, and twenty-nine percent point to rising impacts on livelihoods and poverty. Additionally, fifty-four percent of countries report climate-related damage to ecosystems and biodiversity that support food and agriculture.

Thirty-four percent of countries explicitly reference losses and damages in agrifood systems, more than in any other sector, underscoring both the urgency of action and the escalating scale of climate risk.

Climate risk assessments and locally led adaptation remain limited in national climate plans

While adaptation features prominently, planning gaps threaten to undermine impact. The FAO analysis reveals that only forty percent of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) reference climate risk and vulnerability assessments for agrifood systems, tools essential for identifying where interventions can have the greatest impact. Without them, adaptation efforts risk reinforcing existing vulnerabilities, such as expanding irrigation in already arid regions.

Locally led adaptation is also underrepresented. Just one-third of NDCs include agrifood adaptation options tailored to specific hazards (thirty-one percent), vulnerable groups (twenty-nine percent), or local needs (twenty-six percent). Monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL) systems are rare, with only six percent of NDCs mentioning adaptation tracking mechanisms, and just twenty percent showing readiness to align with the Global Goal on Adaptation’s food and agriculture-related targets.

On average, countries include only two of the five essential elements for effective agrifood adaptation planning, and none include all five.

While all countries recognize the mitigation potential of agrifood systems, there is a persistent gap between ambition and planned action

Among the top 15 agrifood emitters, only eight percent of pledged emission reductions are supported by concrete mitigation measures. The remaining ninety-two percent lack clear implementation pathways.

Major gaps are found at the farm level (ninety-one percent), including addressing emissions from rice cultivation, synthetic fertilizers, crop residues and manure, and for land-use change emissions (seventy-five percent), primarily from deforestation. Significant gaps are also found with respect to emissions generated during agrifood pre- and post-production stages – fertilizer manufacturing, processing, transport, packaging, retail, and waste – where ninety-nine percent of emissions remain unaddressed.

Achieving climate-resilient development requires that agrifood transitions be fair and inclusive, yet fewer than one-third of NDCs mention the specific vulnerabilities of smallholder farmers, pastoralists, fisherfolk, and forest-dependent peoples.

Despite the vital role women play in food production and household nutrition, only seventeen percent of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) acknowledge the disproportionate climate burden they face. Key elements of a just transition, such as social protection, decent work, and economic inclusion, appear in fewer than twenty percent of NDCs. Without a strong focus on equity, climate action risks reinforcing existing inequalities rather than addressing them

Despite their central role in climate mitigation, adaptation, and food security, agrifood systems remain chronically underfunded in national climate plans

As of 2024, NDCs estimated only one-sixth of the financing required to transform agrifood systems in line with the Paris Agreement. This significant underestimation continues in the latest round of submissions. Out of thirty-five NDCs reviewed, only five include new or increased finance estimates for agrifood systems, highlighting the urgent need to scale up investment and ambition.

Transforming agrifood systems at scale will require major private investment, yet most NDCs fail to create an enabling environment

While seventy-one percent recognize the private sector’s role in implementation, only forty-three percent identify specific entry points. The

most common areas for investment include forests, livestock and grasslands, and fisheries and aquaculture. The lack of clear and more detailed policy signals is a missed opportunity to use the new NDCs as the basis for mobilizing finance and investments from the private sector at the scale required.

Markets respond to actionable plans, not aspirations.

Most countries plan to leverage carbon markets – but many are still in the early stages of readiness

A strong majority (Seventy-four percent) intend to use the global carbon markets established under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement to attract investment. Yet only half (fifty-one percent) have outlined the necessary preparatory steps, such as establishing monitoring, reporting, and verification systems; developing legal and institutional frameworks; and strengthening national greenhouse gas inventories. Without these, countries risk missing the benefits these markets could bring.

COP30 will be a defining test of whether ambition for agrifood systems can deliver measurable impact

Countries now recognize that transforming how food is produced, managed, and consumed is central to achieving the Paris Agreement’s goals. The insights from the new NDCs provide a roadmap for accelerating that transformation, showing where progress is underway and where support must deepen.

FAO is working with countries to strengthen NDC planning and implementation processes so that national efforts deliver inclusive, climate resilient and low-emission agrifood system transformation at the scale and speed required.

With global attention on Belém, COP30 offers a critical opportunity to turn ambition into implementation, unlocking the full potential of agrifood systems to cut emissions, build resilience, and secure food for the future.