Reference Date: 21-October-2025

Annual 2025 maize and paddy crop estimated above average due to large plantings

Harvesting of the 2025 minor maize season crops concluded in August and the output is estimated near the five‑year average, rebounding from the low level of the previous year. This is due to above average crop yields, boosted by favourable weather conditions during the first quarter of the year. The high productivity compensated the reduction of plantings, officially estimated to be 12 percent below average, as farmers opted for more profitable soybean crops at the beginning of the season.

The harvest of the 2025 main maize season crop, accounting for over 80 percent of the annual production, finalized by mid‑September. Planted area is estimated at over 10 percent above the average due to higher year‑on‑year prices at planting times. Good weather conditions across the main producing areas favoured crop development, boosting yields. As a result, seasonal production, which is concentrated by half in Mato Grosso State, is officially estimated at a record‑high level. On aggregate, the 2025 maize production is estimated at 139.7 million tonnes, about 27 percent above the five‑year average, reflecting above‑average sowings of the main season harvest, compounded by optimal weather conditions for crop development across the year.

The harvest of the 2025 paddy crop finalized in September and official estimates point to an above‑average 12.8 million tonnes. The output reflects an increase in plantings, about 10 percent above the average, of both irrigated and rainfed crops, driven by higher year‑on‑year quotations at planting times. Main acreage increases were reported in key producing Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Gross states. In addition, conducive weather conditions across the country favoured crop development and boosted yields.

The 2025 wheat season harvest started in September in the main producing southern regions. According to official forecasts, production is anticipated at below-average level. High production costs and low prices at farmgate discouraged farmers to plant and areas sown was estimated to be about 17 percent below average. However, adequate rainfall amounts in June and July favoured crop development, replenishing soil moisture deficits caused by erratic precipitations during the flowering stage and boosting crop yields.

Favourable weather conditions encouraged plantings of 2026 minor maize crop

Planting operations of the 2026 minor maize season crop started in August 2025 in key cropping southern regions. The yearly increase in prices, compounded by favourable weather conditions at the beginning of the season, are expected to provide conducive conditions for crop in early development stage.

Above‑average maize and wheat exports forecast in 2025/26 marketing year

In the 2025/26 marketing year (March/February), exports of maize, the country’s major exportable cereal, are forecast at 42.5 million tonnes, about 8 percent above the five‑year average, due to the 2025 above‑average outturn. Similarly, the large 2025 paddy production is expected to result in above‑average paddy exports in 2025 (January/December).

By contrast, wheat exports in the 2025/26 marketing year (August/July) are forecast to decline on a yearly basis, reflecting the limited availability from three consecutive years of declining production.

Prices of yellow maize and wheat moderately above level of one year earlier

Prices of yellow maize declined from March to September 2025, driven by large availability from the start of the minor season harvest and compounded by abundant supplies from the above‑average output of the main season, that concluded in September. On a yearly basis, maize prices moderately increased, reflecting growing domestic demand from the ethanol industry.

Regarding rice, wholesale prices generally declined across the markets from March to September, in line with seasonal trends, and were below their previous year’s level, pressured downward by the 2025 above‑average harvest. Similarly, wholesale prices of wheat declined for the fifth consecutive month across the markets in September and were lower than their year-earlier level, reflecting ample supplies from above-average imports from January to September 2025.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .