Reference Date: 11-March-2026

Maize output in 2026 anticipated to remain above average, although below 2025 record‑high level

The harvest of the 2026 first minor maize season crop started last February in the main producing southern regions. The area sown is officially estimated to be higher than the previous two years, as farmers preferred to plant maize more than the less profitable crops of rice and beans. However, the area remains slightly below the five-year average. Erratic precipitation delayed planting operations in the last quarter of 2025 in some central and northern states, but generally favourable rainfall amounts since last January restored beneficial conditions for crop development across the country, boosting yields. As a result, the seasonal output is anticipated at an above-average level.

Sowing operations of the 2026 main maize season crop, which accounts for about 80 percent of the annual production, are underway and expected to conclude in March. Although the ample maize supply from the 2025 record-high production kept prices lower than the previous year, the strong export demand encouraged farmers to increase plantings above the previous year’s level. Despite a delay in planting operations in some northern and central regions, the area sown is preliminarily estimated at about 9 percent above the five-year average. Yield prospects are generally favourable as weather forecasts point to a high likelihood of average rainfall amounts between April and May 2026. Dry weather conditions are expected in March in some central states, likely affecting crops at early development stages in localized areas. Overall, seasonal output is anticipated to be above average, but below the record level achieved in 2025.

Planting of the 2026 paddy crop is nearing completion. According to official sources, the area planted is estimated to be slightly below the average and about 12 percent less than the high acreage of 2025. Erratic precipitation and low prices at planting time negatively affected the extent of planted area. Crop conditions in the main producing southern regions are reported to be favourable and yields are expected to remain near the average.

Wheat plantings in 2026 anticipated to decline for fourth consecutive year

Planting operations of the 2026 wheat season are expected to start next April. Weather forecasts point to a high likelihood of average rainfall amounts between April and June which are likely to provide conducive conditions for crop establishment in the main producing Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná states, where about 85 percent of the total wheat output is cropped. The area sown is forecast to decline for the fourth consecutive year due to unfavourable weather prospects in key producing regions, elevated costs of imported agricultural inputs and lower year‑on‑year prices, which reduced profitability.

Exports of paddy and maize above average in 2025/26 due to large domestic surplus

On average, about 30 percent of the total maize production is exported. Reflecting the ample domestic surplus from the 2025 record-high production as well as the strong international demand, maize exports in the 2025/26 marketing year (March/February) are estimated at 41.7 million tonnes, about 7 percent above the five-year average.

With ample availability from the 2025 bumper output, paddy exports in 2025/26 are anticipated to be above average, also compounded by low domestic prices, which discouraged domestic sales. Exports of wheat in the 2025/26 marketing year (August/July) are anticipated at an above-average level of 2.6 million tonnes, mainly due to the high demand by Bangladesh and Viet Nam, the main export destinations.

Prices of yellow maize and wheat prices lower year-on-year in January 2026

After strengthening during the last quarter of 2025, wholesale prices of yellow maize declined in most markets of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul in January 2026 with the start of the minor season harvest, but were unchanged or increased in Distrito Federal and Sao Paulo markets, where crops are still at development stages. In January 2026, prices were on average about 10 percent lower year-on-year due to the ample availability following the record-high maize output harvested in 2025.

Rice prices declined in November and December 2025 across most markets and were up to 40 percent lower than their year‑earlier levels due to the ample supply from the 2025 above‑average output. Declining international quotations also contributed to lower year-on-year prices in domestic markets, with imported rice corresponding to about 10 percent of the total utilization.

Wheat prices mostly declined across the markets from April 2025 to January 2026, reflecting the appreciation of the Brazilian real as well as declining international prices of wheat in Argentina, the origin of about 80 percent of maize imports in 2025. As a result, prices were up to 17 percent lower year-on-year in January 2026.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .