Reference Date: 30-April-2025

Cereal production foreseen to recover in 2025

The bulk of the 2025 cereal harvest is expected to take place in May. Weather conditions since the start of the cropping season in November 2024 have been generally favourable. Total seasonal rainfall amounts between November 2024 and mid-April 2025 were above long-term averages across the country, benefiting crop development. However, the temporal distribution of rains was uneven, with heavy downpours recorded in January and February 2025, causing localized flooding in riverine areas of the South-East and Kgatleng districts, with, however, an anticipated minimal impact on aggregate national cereal production.

According to remote sensing analysis, the overall conducive weather conditions are reflected in above-average vegetation levels in cropped areas. Accordingly, cereal production in 2025 is expected to rebound from last year’s drought-reduced level and potentially reach a near-average level, driven by both a recovery in yields and an increase in the harvested area.

Based on remote sensing data from April, reflecting the favourable weather patterns during the 2024/25 season, vegetation conditions in grazing areas are also generally above average.

Food inflation rates stable in early 2025

Having fallen from double-digit levels in 2023, the annual food inflation rate hovered around 5 percent in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025. As of March 2025, the food inflation rate was estimated at 5.8 percent. Bread and cereal prices grew by 5.7 percent year-on-year in March 2025 and, given their importance in national diets, they carry the largest weight in the food inflation subcomponent and are a key driver of food inflation.

Although the country produces cereals, it is a net importer and domestic cereal price movements are influenced by external commodity prices, notably in South Africa, where most cereal imports are sourced. From mid-2024 through January 2025, wholesale South African white maize prices, a key imported cereal staple, increased steeply and reached record highs, putting pressure on domestic cereal retail prices. Wholesale prices in South Africa have, however, declined since February 2025, helping to ease import costs, which could lead to softening retail prices of maize products in the country later in the year.

Acute food insecurity anticipated to improve in 2025/26

According to the latest regional report by the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the number of people facing acute food insecurity was estimated at 58 000 in the first quarter of 2025, about 2.4 percent of the national population. In view of the expected increase in agricultural production in 2025, owing to the good weather conditions and a likely easing of pressure on domestic cereal prices due to declining import costs in the country’s main trading partner, acute food insecurity conditions could improve in late 2025 and early 2026.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .