Reference Date: 19-September-2025

Erratic start of 2025 rainy season

Planting of the 2025 maize crop, virtually the only cereal grown in the country, took place between July and August. The rainy season, which typically extends from August to October, had an erratic start. Excessive rainfall amounts between early and mid‑August were followed by dry weather conditions through the end of the month. The poor rainfall distribution affected planting operations and crop germination across most producing regions.

Weather forecasts for September and October indicate near to below‑average rainfall amounts, which are likely to have a negative impact on maize yields.

Maize production in 2024 estimated at above‑average level

Maize production in 2024 is officially estimated at about 3 600 tonnes, nearly 80 percent above the low average of the previous five years, which includes three consecutive years of failed harvests due to drought conditions. The above‑average production in 2024 is due to generally favourable weather conditions and the provision of agricultural inputs by the government, which offset a significant reduction in the area planted. The reduction in plantings is part of a broader trend of abandonment of agricultural activities in some areas of the country, driven by erratic rainfall and the high cost of agricultural labour in recent years.

Prices of cereals near or below year‑earlier levels

Retail prices of locally‑produced maize remained stable or declined by 5 percent in monitored markets between April and July 2025, when they were near or below their year‑earlier values. Retail prices of imported rice and wheat flour remained mostly stable between April and July 2025. Prices of both cereals were near their year‑earlier levels in July.

Flash floods raise food security concerns on northern islands

According to the latest available Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis, about 35 300 people (7 percent of the analysed population) were estimated to be acutely food insecure (CH Phase 3 [Crisis]) during the June to August 2025 lean season. This is below the 44 100 people (9 percent of the analysed population) estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance during the same period in 2024.

However, the actual number of acutely food insecure people in 2025 is likely to be higher than the estimates, considering the impact of the flash floods that struck the islands of São Vicente, Santo Antão and São Nicolau on 11 August 2025. In response, the government declared a state of emergency, with preliminary assessments indicating that about 95 000 people have been affected. Floods destroyed food stocks, disrupted livelihoods and damaged critical infrastructure, increasing humanitarian needs among the most vulnerable households.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/.

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .