Reference Date: 18-November-2025

Paddy production in 2025 anticipated at about 60 percent below pre-reform 2021 levels

Production of rice, the main cereal crop, has been declining since 2022, following the government’s reform measures (called Ruta del Arroz) that significantly reduced import tariffs and eliminated fixed price bands, including reference prices paid to producers . Aggregate paddy production in 2025 is forecast at 65 000 tonnes, about 60 percent below its pre-reform levels in 2021, mainly due to a substantial reduction in planted area.

The harvest of the 2025 main season paddy crop is underway and is expected to conclude in December. According to satellite-based imagery, rainfall amounts were below average during crop emergence and development stages in July and August, with a negative impact on yields. High production costs and lower year-on-year domestic prices further diminished plantings compared to the previous year’s already low level.

In key cropping Chorotega and Pacífico Central regions, sowing operations of 2026 minor season paddy crops started last October amid adequate precipitation amounts. Weather forecasts for the last two months of 2025 point to conducive rainfall amounts for crop development, but planted area is anticipated to contract on a yearly basis and remain below average.

Import requirements in 2025/26 anticipated at about 20 percent above average

Imports of cereals account for approximately 85 percent of the total cereal utilization. Aggregate cereal import requirements in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 1.7 million tonnes, about 20 percent above the five-year average. This includes about 1.1 million tonnes of yellow maize to be processed by the feed industry as well as rice and wheat for domestic consumption. Imports of rice are expected to continue growing for the fourth consecutive year, more than offsetting the reduction of domestic production.

Prices of rice and black beans lower year-on-year in September due to large imports

After declining seasonally in July and August 2025, prices of rice in September and October remained almost unchanged month-on-month, reflecting adequate market availability from the ongoing main season harvest. Compared to the previous year, rice prices fell by about 7 percent due to larger year-on-year imports, together with declining international quotations.

Wholesale prices of black beans declined since April 2025 and, as of October 2025, were about 4 percent lower than their year-earlier levels due to large imports.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .