Reference Date: 09-July-2025

Poor performance of the March‑May rainy season affecting pastoral livelihoods

In inland pastoral areas of Dikhil, Obock and Tadjourah regions, the 2025 March‑May “diraac/sougum” rainy season had a poor performance, with cumulative rainfall amounts estimated at about 50 percent below‑average. The moisture deficits affected the regeneration of rangeland resources and the availabilty of pasture and water for livestock, with a negative impact on animal body condition.

According to the latest weather forecast by the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF), the 2025 July‑September “karan/karma” rainy season is expected to be characterized by above‑average rainfall amounts, likely benefiting rangeland resources and livestock.

Prices of wheat flour and rice lower than their year‑earlier levels

The national average price of wheat flour, the most consumed cereal in the country, mainly in urban areas, increased by about 10 percent between October 2024 and May 2025. However, the price in May was about 7 percent lower than one year before, mainly due to an gradual improvement in 2025 of trade flows in the Red Sea.

The national average price of rice, the second most important cereal in the country’s diet, declined by 8 percent between August 2024 and May 2025, when it was about 5 percent lower than a year before.

Improving food security situation in 2025

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), about 230 000 people (nearly 20 percent of the country’s population) are projected to face severe acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and IPC Phase 4 [Emergency]) in the July‑December 2025 period, including about 175 000 people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 55 000 in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). The high prevalence and severity of acute food insecurity reflects the negative impact of frequent weather shocks on pastoral livelihoods, the low purchasing power of large segments of the population and the significant reduction of humanitarian assistance due to recent funding cuts.

However, the number of people projected to face severe acute food insecurity is 20 percent lower than one year before, mainly due to increased employment opportunities in the port and the commercial sector of Djibouti city following improvements in trade flows in the Red Sea.

As of end‑June 2025, the country hosts about 33 800 refugees and asylum seekers from Ethiopia, Somalia, Yemen and Eritrea. Most of them lack adequate access to livelihood opportunities and rely entirely on humanitarian assistance.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .